Member Info for wasarunner

Maybe Akrokeri is why Blue Gold got involved - Goldstone needed a partner to develop it (financially and possibly expertise) and Akrokeri can get fast tracked with their support. It wouldn't surprise me at all in which case it could be a strategic move (by both parties) rather than just a shore up the balance sheet move.

I don't know because I don't know what it will cost at Akrokeri - from the drill depths 50m+ is this going to be an open cast mine or an underground mine so I don't know how much it will cost or how it will be funded. When we talked to Emma on an investor call she said it was a big project and would need separate funding. But of course - with enough lead time, enough years churning out gold at a high margin you could theoretically accumulate enough cash to develop a second mine but we're not in that position.

It was encouraging to see some strike at surface at Akrokeri. At least the surface stuff you could truck over (it isn't far from Homase) and process at Homase maybe without building another mine.

But yeah we want to get into a position where we are mining 20koz+ at $500k/oz+ profit and then wondering what to do with those $10m+ gross profits per annum... I have some ideas what I'd like to do with them!

haggis - fair enough in that case I guess we expect news on the DMS on or around the timeframe of the DFS / ML which is quite exciting. A short time to run the DMS before mine complete probably doesn't make sense but if there is a commissioning phase (I don't know if that is a thing here) then it does extend the period for which the mine isn't at full production i.e. you don't usually go from 0 -> nameplate overnight during which time it might be useful to run the smaller plant. We will see! I am genuinely excited about where we will be by the summer and I take these big director buys and option conversions as a very healthy sign that we will soon be at the races. The low price was kind of a gift to them (and to us) but also an incentive to get the mine delivered and reap the rewards. GLA

I took it as a good sign that she visited Tanzania and Ghana on her recent trip to Africa (the only 2 countries where my only 3 African investments lie) with the stated reason to strengthen economic ties. It means the Americans want something that exists in Tanzania. Add to that the prior trip by the Tanzanian President to China to meet Xi and there is definitely some healthy tension there for resources. Very interesting that BKT are talking to Posco and Urbix both non-Chinese. I agree with the other posters here we are definitely in the queue behind BKT but the resource is the resource and it will be in demand - I saw a recent article which said in kt shortfall (forget the timeframe) the order is Lithium then Graphite then Nickel. I've got those three covered :)

yesterday and today the biggest trades were sells so nothing changed just the short run up through a bit of buying has been wiped out by a couple of sellers into the liquidity. Both days the volume is still pretty small so people aren't buying on the drill results. Probably waiting for the operational update which short term is more significant for the company as we are a producer not an explorer. I'm holding staying put but not buying hopefully the operational update shows progress - the drill results look good but you still have to produce and production from Akrokeri is a way away still (and probably needs funding). GLA

I've got 5 gone through unusually early looks like ii got their fingers out this year! Normally takes a few days. 6.6m shares - if we get to 20p.....happy days. Would have been more if some pesky buyers hadn't raised the price this morning.... GLA

Also at 4m tonne nickel reserves we could keep Glencore at their current production rate for around 40 years.....

thanks haggis, I imagine there is a bit of risk then committing funding for a side project when permitting is ongoing and not in the bag but I guess if that's how you accelerate production then they may be prepared to take some risk. Conventional routes are -> arrange finance conditional on permit -> get permit -> secure finance -> order machinery/plant etc. but of course that comes with lead times. If the modular plant is relatively cheap of course the risk can be mitigated. Maybe it costs £750k and that's why CFO funded the co. for that amount :)

Nice to have options and will be really interesting to see what comes to pass. I was impressed with the COO on the call and I think he has a good track record of delivery.

Interesting to muse what Glen would be acquiring if they do take us out. Here are their 2022 production numbers:

https://www.glencore.com/media-and-insights/news/full-year-2022-production-report

107.5kt nickel from own sources.

Horizonte have planned c. 55kt+ with the original Araguaia DFS + Vermelho PFS but it is easy to see a scalable resource profile up to 100kt and beyond. If Glen bought Horizonte they would be potentially able to double their nickel output overall in a few years - because both mines would likely be permitted and shovel ready by the time the bid comes. How hard is it to add 100kt of production from new sources where they have to prospect, drill, acuire permits etc.etc?

It won't surprise me one bit if the Vermelho DFS comes with options to expand over and above a base case Horizonte sized mine to cater for just such a scenario. Maybe line 1 + line 2 + optional line 3. Capex is probably a non issue if it isn't Horizonte aren't going to build it so why not 'go large'?

Feels a bit early to me but the interesting thing from the webinar is that the COO said they don't last too long (but can be repurposed) - i.e. a year or two. They also said the main focus would be to build the mine as that is where the gravy is at. However, given that period building the mine and presumably some commissioning time it would be quite sweet to have revenue coming in. I'll have a guess at mid 24 for the modular mine (if it happens). We won't be fully permitted to the end of this year (I think). If the modular mine gives us revenue for 1+ years until the main mine reaches nameplate production then obviously that is a good thing because it financially de-risks the project (potential slippage in time or cost).

Like others impressed with the CFO converting options today. She could have left it until after the mining licence was granted so the fact she didn't shows she is pretty confident it happens.

The current mcap is a little misleading in that the convertable bonds (and other options) assuming in a T/O scenario can be converted lead to ~330m shares in issue (the convertables accrue interest so precise number depends on timing of conversion). £1bn would then almost equal £3 exactly.

I hope any bid is £1bn+ - this seems more and more realistic given that we are already at c. £400m not fully diluted mcap and we are still building the mine. Once we are commissioning the NPV % should be better still - Horizonte had a slide in the recent presentation of relative valuation of pure play nickel miners ranging from around 0.8x NPV - 1.2x NPV. At 1x NPV + a small premium for A1 only we should be worth £1bn. Then there should be something for A2 and Vermelho.

A lot depends surely on when the bid comes? It is hard to quantify A2 and Vermelho at the moment because they don't have DFS but I would imagine when they do, the bid has to incorporate them at a higher number and we should be scoring more than £1bn at that stage? Personally hoping no bid this year, A1 commissions and A2 and V both have DFS then let the bids come as they should give us pretty good value. Mid 24? I am still betting Glencore I know a few here think Vale. Bidding war would be ideal of course. GLA

fat fingers. Should have been 186 :)

Interesting just read Glencore made a bid for Teck today $22bn. First they buy their hzm shares off them then they try to buy the whole outfit.

The good news? Glen have $22bn for acquisitions of course. Wonder what they will spend it on if they are unsuccessful with Teck....

I expected some resistance at 30p. Combination of factors at here - some profit taking (surely plenty bought now below) and there will still be some nerves from the drop. How long for who knows best guess a week or two. However. With the newsflow lined up for later in this quarter I do think the current price is temporary. If you assume the ML is a given (always best not to assume that but lets go with it) then surely the updated figures in the DFS will be of great significance. I watched the mining conference video and really emphasises that if prices are above $2k/t we are printing money. And doesn't much disguise the fact he believes that's where we will be at production. So they should incorporate the higher pricing into the DFS. GLA

Hi jdt yes it was tongue in cheek of course!
I guess there is no regulatory requirement for a quarterly update but if you usually provide one, then one year you don't (after saying you will update early Q1) investors will probably assume what news there is isn't good. I'm hopeful that progress has been made but in the absence of news of course it is just a guess. I can be patient but the current sp is hurting for sure!

BearLittle - concur on currency it is why I invested all of mine. I genuinely don't believe in FIAT everything is manipulated including inflation figures. Now we couldn't hold inflation down any longer it is let rip and lo and behold - the average Jo is suddenly much worse off than before yet they're earning the same $ or £ and most don't understand it. Gold will have its day it won't stay under $2k forever. Notwithstanding - we do need to demonstrate we can mine an industrial quantity - that 600koz in the ground isn't that useful if we can't get it out....

The sp dropped on friday by 1p because the wind was nne 8 gusting 12 and pickedpeck needed a new sail for his boat. Or, it could have been PIs with large holdings saying they were buyingon bulletin boards while secretely selling and thus negatively affecting the shareprice of a third of a billion £ mcap company. 50/50 the two scenarios imo. Either way doesn't matter shareprice dropped is all we know. And will be higher in 2 years time.

There's no immediate benefit to the company of offering the incentive (no immediate cash to the balance sheet) but agreed there is a biproduct of the issue that investors feel that management are aligned with the objective and so may be more confident to invest. But initially this costs the management nothing they didn't have to give up anything for these options.

However. Once above 60p the option is worth £20k per penny for each director. Now if I was in a position to deliver for the company, and each time I delivered every penny on the shareprice gave me a £20k return. I would work pretty hard. That's the purpose of the incentive (and I agree with it BTW). Who wouldn't like £20k/p return here?

It's coming in the first few weeks of Q2....

incidentally the effect on company finances of the directors putting in £1.2m cash at exercise is pretty negligible assuming we're producing. It is the incentive effect that is what matters here. Directors have, in effect, 2m shares each on which to maximise their returns. They will want the shareprice to be as high as possible at exercise time.... £3 they make £4.8m, £4 they make £6.8m and so on and so forth.....

Seen some comments on the senior exec options that came out today. This is really good for investors:
- management incentivised to get the shareprice up by 100% so bags for current investors.
- of course they'll cash the options assuming they can get the shareprice well above the option. When? Well as late as possible of course. Assuming the options are protected in a T/O scenario why would they part with cash any earlier than the latest date they can exercise the option (and want to sell it?) No reason to do that at all so I wouldn't be cashing the option until much later down the line closer to production. The dilution comes then but it is fairly trivial dilution at that and the incentive is of course to deliver a much better return - they don't want the shareprice to be 60p as they have to pay 60p for the shares - they want the shareprice to be £3 to maximise their return.

100% option price above current price is pretty high. It is probably only that high because of the short attack but nevertheless - current investors have the opportunity to buy at half the management incentive price and lets not forget the management already bought with own cash at todays price -10% or so. The incentive RNS is good news IMHO. 2m shares at £3 less the option price of 60p is £4.8m gain per director before tax which is worth working hard for 2-3 years for to deliver.