Member Info for wasarunner

They did. Another miner I bought expected a licence didn't get it, I lost a 6 figure sum. Another company I held shares was trading in russia, now it's worth a lot less. Some aimcos a few on this board have invested in are wound up now. It's how it goes part and parcel of investing. Were the ACP management bigging it up too soon? Perhaps. Does Tanzania want the revenues from graphite? Ask POSCO, they're almost certainly directly/indirectly talking tot he govt. GLA

WIll Blackrock mine graphite first? Almost certainly. Does that mean you should buy their shares right now? Well that depends on: a. do you want AUD exposure (mcap is £130m AUD), do you want to pay for 10x mcap v ACP, do you want to pay for whatever dilution is coming to fund their $180m USD capex mine (ACP conservatively $50m USD capex).

Personally, I prefer the additional wait, I'll take my chances with our mgt team, for the relative cost/benefit of holding my shares in gbp for the lower capex (easier to fund) mine. But if you want early graphite exposure in Tanzania BKT is very investable - listed on the ASX it's easy to buy. Yes they'll probably have their finance deal just about sealed soon but they also will have equity to raise (as will we) just a lot more of it, most likely....

In practice if you wanted to get rich quick then neither was a good choice as both took longer than they expected, so there's no point complaining about it, it is what it is......

GK - agreed and yes that has been very clearly stated by the BOD - I guess the first stage is really important (ML) because it signals intent from the govt 'we want the mine to be built'. A lot of less 'risk averse' investors would see that as the green flag, the most 'risk averse' investors like the bigger insti's who prefer to pay more, for less risk, would wait till stage 4.

Hopefully stage 1 soon, this quarter potentially?

It's an important point I feel (when you consider whether and when other institutions will invest) - our CEO has a proven ability to build lithium mines - he's built them before. Ghana on the other hand haven't permitted a lithium mine, accept they got things wrong with their biggest mining industry (gold) and want to get this one right and do it differently/better. So one is proven the other isn't and from a risk perspective one is under the companies direct control (don't think the CEO can build the mine - find another CEO) the other isn't (not easy to move your asset out of Ghana!)

As an engineer myself I always thought engineering was the hard bit of these projects but actually if your deposit is at the surface at least - it is generally the politics, legals, and finance it seems.....

Sorry the mcap numbers are at 1x NPV in my table below. The 'current' mcap at 0.8x NPV and 0.5x NPV would be correspondingly lower. Which means 1-1.2x NPV say we can achieve that at production then the shareprice rises above Hooper's estimates. At 1.2x NPV you would have for example 189p sp on the 'blue sky' basis at production.

Interesting numbers and tally quite well with my own calcs - I assume 750m shares fully diluted (to some extent NPV and full dilution are the moving parts) then from Hooper numbers:

mcap at 750m shares (assuming valuation is 0.8xNPV):

94p = £880m

113p = £1,060m

126p = £1,180m

If I retro fit my conservative fully permitted fully diluted valuation (empirically this is what I have seen with Horizonte - 0.5x NPV at permitted and start of mine build - accepting that there is upside from this due to lower capex/mine build risk here and also the fact that lithium is a sexier material more in vogue so the 0.8x NPV valuation is perhaps more attainable sooner):

50% NPV low valuation: 58.7p/sh

50% NPV mid valuation: 70p / sh

50% NPV 'blue sky' valuation: 78p / sh

This gives me a range of 58p/sh (my lowest valuation) vs £1.26/sh (Hooper max valuation) as a working model for where we might be by the end of the year fully permitted, fully diluted, and ready to build the mine.

I appreciate the low end of that range might be low if people bought their shares higher but right now even that is nearly 2x on todays price, with the high end closer to 4x. This makes it an extremely attractive investment even on a 1 year view let alone production and dividends.

Anything in the 60p-£1 range by year end - I'd be much more than happy as a staging post towards production. I think the value gap between where we are today at 32p will close quite quickly once the necessary newsflow lands indicating permitting DFS etc. all on track.

Swest - there's always tension in this situation - the country wants a slice of the pie (which is very just - it's their minerals we're mining!) but also need the investment and the jobs it will generate so really want the project to go ahead. IMO this (and finance) is where the BOD earn their bread - getting the licence and permitting over the line. In the case of Atlantic the tie up with Piedmont is the finance so one big tick in the box there. I suspect relative to getting all the i's crossed and t's dotted on the permitting/licence is actually a bigger job (to both parties satisfaction) than building the mine.

In my view the permitting should unlock a lot of the value given that we're financed (i.e. should result in a sp rise), maybe the DFS too but surely everybody is expecting good figures in the DFS (higher spod price and more production than the PFS) so to some extent that has to be expected now. Though it's obvious our price is still beat up from the recent drop due to the bear attack, these things always take a while to work out of the system.

Anyway, shade over a month of the quarter left, bring it on! Yes it will be good to secure the offtake on the remaining 50%, hopefully some good names there - you always want big names on your offtake as it makes (potential) investors sit up and take notice.

Mine was bky (uranium), ceo was adamant licencing soon, then suddenly resigned, no licence. 5 years later still no licence I took the hit and moved on. That and I got the uranium cycle about 5 years wrong.

Definitely not wrong on the cycle here, sooner we build the mine the better IMO and not suggedting permitting won't happen but significant new money would most likely come in after permitting. It's the risk us pi's take buying in early - we take more risk for more return sometimes it works out better than other times!

I like tge 33p level because it is really easy to calculate (the first) two bags to £1!

From and including: Friday, 30 December 2022

To and including: Tuesday, 23 May 2023

Result: 145 days

It is 145 days from the start date to the end date, end date included.

Or 4 months, 24 days including the end date.

Rover I saw that but if the main consumer is China and they don't apply sanctions maybe a muted effect. I don't know where the nickel export from Ru goes though so happy to be corrected. I've given up believing the lme price is the real nickel price so it's hard to know what the nickel price is in any case!

Think that's definitely something worth clarifying once we start producing, exactly how the terms of the offtake deal with Glencore work (on pricing). I'm sure that will be revealed in the updates as we ramp up.

>>Yes that and the fact that a cash raise is definitely on the horizon now after they are spending funds elsewhere.

Why would you need a cash raise when you have £2m (cash + investments) and no debt?

You need to raise cash to build the mine but until then, it's as you were....

Think the site is broken I give up!

Dunno what happened to rest of my post but gist was - most PIs invest need the money in

As Skewwy said I believe that is the case. Many realise it will take longer than they wanted (or doubt it will happen at all) and are taking their money out. It's relatively easy to 'take the loss' if you don't have a huge investment here (as in there is liquidity to a point) taking a loss is never easy of course. I can't sell even if I wanted to but I don't want to anyway but I accept it will take longer than I wanted. I think the mine will get built, or failing that, sold. But we're not going to be first and I have accepted that, others have to build their mines first, make Tanzania a graphite producer per the article I posted the other day, then something will happen to our assets (hopefully we build the mine ourselves) and value will out.

Yes it sucks - most PIs invest money they need in

One of my (many) frustrations is this (RNS 30th December):

"· 2022 production target of 7,000 ounces of gold (RNS: 30 September 2022) not yet achieved, but the shortfall ounces remain within the heap at various stages of recovery."

That was like 140 days ago. How long does it take to heap leach? Should we know what happened to the 2000 ounces (worth ~$4m USD) by now? These are 2022 operational numbers we don't know - and we're nearly halfway through 2023?

Either the news is that bad, that it is worse to RNS than not to RNS, or in effect this is being run like a private company amongst the 3-4 big ii's and sod the other investors. I'm really hoping it's the latter.

Strummer - I think it's ACPs investments - though I'm not sure where that's listed I don't see it in the RNS? I know they must have made good money as both cash and investments are up. This line in the statement:

At 4 May 2023 the Group had cash of £737,000 and listed investments worth £1,245,000.

That's pretty healthy - £2m (assuming the investments perform of course, they need to do better than my PF which includes a lot of ACP shares!)

I don't want it to be Glen now, because I want the company to build shareholder value before (what I believe to be) the inevitable bid (from Glen or another but if another bid then I would expect Glen to counter). I'm fairly resigned to us not staying independent in the long haul so the minimum I would like to achieve is A1 built+nameplate, A2 DFS (funding secured?) and V DFS. Just think we get a lot more then than we do now and it's in our interest that at that point Glen's shareholding as a % of the total equity is as low as possible so shareholders can only approve what they feel is a strong offer.

But if it is Glen and at some point they do TR1 I do expect it to give us a boost on sp as some hot money piles in expecting a bid.

Just as to why I'm risk averse (generally) I had a big position in a miner which didn't get a licence, lost a 6 figure sum. Not suggesting that will happen here but it is at least 1 reason why (some) institutions won't buy here till we are fully permitted - they're more cautious. I've also had a miner which had to raise mid build, not a tragic outcome but then your return flatlines for a couple more years than you hoped for. Then I've had some that haven't got off the ground yet. So there's plenty of ways things can go south - again, looking very strong here -> strong management (key), and it seems good engagement with the Ghanaian authorities (key) and also a solid financial backing Piedmont (key). So I am very positive but it isn't 100% till we're producing lithium and valued at NPV, that's just how I see it.....

Hi Teddy - by 'cash invested' as opposed to current value, something like 1/6th in ALL. Current value is a bit more as I have a few underwater (doesn't everybody).

I've had some big dusters in the past - that's why I'm risk averse. And I 'punt' (for me) big amounts that I don't really want to lose hence the caution.

If I had my time again I would always take my original stake out at a suitable juncture, I know more experienced investors do this once they've made gains. It is a better way to do it but for some reason I'm a sucker for the long game, which sometimes works well sometimes doesn't....

You always want more of a good thing but everyone got finite funds, well I do anyway. Still, 5x on 'as big a number as you can get to' or 10x on that number is a handsome multiple and hopefully that's what we're in for here, with sufficient patience. Won't be in a straight line of course there will be some twists and turns - company and macro I expect in the next 1-3 years but macro willing, Ghana willing, and the company delivering we will see those kinds of numbers....