Member Info for wasarunner

You don't know how many have been bought and how many have been sold because the stock exchange doesn't publish this information (the direction of the trade). This website (and others) infer it from the bid/ask at the time but this is particularly reliable especially for thinly traded stocks. Lots of buys may show as sells or vice versa.

£5k sell and £2.3k sell is all I'm seeing. I bought £4k in 2 trades. The bigger transaction is a B&I two sides of the same trade, a buy, a sell. So about evens I reckon...

Also someone smarter than me agrees with me because that's a nice chunky B&I just gone through. I wish I had had this price when I did the B&I....

On an aside - relatively high risk but I am pretty confident this is the highest potential upside of anything I hold in my portfolio (from current price). These are just my views, obviously. I would say 15p is a minimum for anybody willing to hold through to second stage mine etc. and depending on funding options etc. could obviously be a lot better than that.

BailMaster - same - overinvested but also sadly (personal circumstances) I don't have big lumps to invest anymore of new money without switching other investments but I will keep adding here with the small lumps I do get (spare income basically). ACP is my largest investment by £ investment (but well underwater obviously - haven't worked out my average but same ballpark as yours).

I see it as still relatively high risk - that risk will drop SIGNIFICANTLY IMO at the point Blackrock have funding in place. I see that as a rerate event for Armadale. All this b*** about us being behind doesn't bother me a jot - if there is a customer (and I've seen plenty of interest at Blackrock), and it's a p*** easy mine to build (as I have been told numerous times by the mgt here) and if Tanzania want it - it will get built.

Blackrock is the key. I don't think it will be at this price after Blackrock finance. Which could (and should!) be anytime soon. All IMHO and I have been wrong before and DYOR etcetc.

The stock market is fear & greed.

Fear:

- MB is rinsing the company and shareholders

- Tanzania want their graphite to stay underground and not export it

- Graphite isn't a thing/synthetic will take over/a.n.other alternative will emerge

Greed:

- sub $10m mcap for a project worth $500m NPV pretax with an IRR approaching 100%

- Tanzania really want the graphite revenues and are doing everything they can to help Blackrock get their mine off the ground

- The chinese want it the south koreans want it the americans want it. Which means eventually one or more of them will have it.

And because I'm (always) greedy, I bought a couple of modest lumps this morning to top up. GLA

Glencore and La Mancha partnering. Interesting :-)

What we know is coming in the DFS:

- higher prod numbers than PFS

- higher pricing than PFS

- modular plant production in 2024

- increased resource estimate

We don't know the numbers but all of the above have been openly discussed by the management team in the past few months. They are therefore 'in the public domain'. My guess is not everything is in the public domain and the DFS will also surprise to the upside on things we hadn't anticipated. There is a very high probability that there are things the BOD can't talk about which will become clearer once the DFS lands.

Personally the kind of DFS I'm anticipating is of the 'If Carlsberg did DFS's......' type of thing (ok that doesn't work well but you know what I mean). I am reasonably confident that not everything the BOD know is in the public domain (yet....) GLA

Thanks Teddy, interesting video. Some very interesting takeaways - the DMS sounds a when, not if, and used in the plural will be interesting to see what the throughput will be - it sounds like it will be incorporated into the DFS.

Literally none of what you guys say make sense. What is it you don't like - the management (I think?), the resource, the jurisdiction Tanzania, graphite, or stocks generally? Take these all in turn:

- if you don't like the management but really dig the rest, sell ACP buy BKT/Ecograf is the trade. You'll more than make your money back if you believe their upside/NPV.

- ditto if you think our resource is no good, and Blackrocks is better

- if you think Tanzania seems bureaucratic and these permits/agreements are taking too long, don't like the 16% free carry and the tax regime, find a graphite miner elsewhere? There have to be a few?

- if you suddenly decided lithium is hot, buy Atlantic Lithium (instead of/ as well as). I did.

- if you decided stock market isn't for you, York races 14-15 July, I can't tip a horse as I don't follow it.

In all 5 scenarios above, if it was me, I would have sold up and moved my money to make 3x 5x 10x somewhere else I thought this was now more likely (if I knew anything about horse racing maybe even York races). And yes I would take the hit because I've done that in the past and it has worked out.

Alternatively if you still believe this will deliver, but just enjoy a good moan from week to week that's fine to but say so. Say 'I think this will come good and I like the management and I like the resource and I like Tanzania and I like graphite it's just a pain in the a**e they are taking so long'. But if I didn't believe the BOD would ever deliver I would have sold up long ago, really I would. Your maximum loss is always 100% of the capital invested, unless you're on leverage in which case, oh dear. GLA

Personally think bkt don't give a hoot about us. They are simultaneously trying to secure $180m usd (which is not a small sum in a risk off capital markets) and convince those that part with that cash that they will have all the infrastructure in place in an underdeveloped part of the country required to extract and transport the graphite. That means deals with govt agencies and the utility suppliers. Their financierss (banks) need the security. It all takes time - they have already slipped many of their self imposed deadlines.

The BOD of the company I invested in Russia (met them personally) also rns'd good things. Apparently Putin had other ideas. It happens and its the risk of investing in these jurisdictions. Want security invest in Lloyds in the UK - apparently that works most times except when the year is 2008. Did lloyds rns all good in 2007?

Things change all the time. You want our BOD to come and state the obvious (which is - let bkt do the heavy lifting as their shareholders are impatient and their customer is waiting...)? They probably could but it would look odd...

>>Basically we ve all been mugged off,

No, you invested in something you didn't understand. How many _producing_ graphite miners were you aware of operating in Tanzania at the time you invested, and what was their lead time to going into production? If the answer is still 0, and you didn't know that at the time, then you did no DD. If you knew that then you took a chance, like the rest of us, that graphite mining in Tanzania will be a thing, except you had no historical evidence to base your decision on. and now you are complaining it didn't happen at the speed you wanted it to.

I wanted the war not to break out in Ukraine, I also wanted Covid not to happen, and if both had not happened I'd be really wealthy by now because each of those events put all my investments back years. But no point getting bitter about it just got to get on with it.... tomorrow is another day. GLA

Can't comment on relative value but certainly neither 2 or 3 years to production is an issue (and we may see production a lot sooner). It's true the Lassonde curve typically kicks into gear 1 year before production and it is also true that nameplate production doesn't happen overnight from switching the mine on. However, 5x, 10x or even 20x returns are not typically achieved overnight and as other posters have mentioned political risk etc. is a biggie. I've sat on my biggest investment since 2018 and expect it to come good in 2025 so I'd happily take 2025 here as it's only 2 years from when I invested (appreciate others is longer).

I hope to hear more on the modular plants our CEO seems quite keen on them, then 2024 might be a possibility.....

So the million dollar question of course is when does the market wake up and smell the coffee? Hopefully rerate soon that latest broker/analyst said up to £1.20 fully diluted pre construction. What are the risks:

- lithium pricing risk doesn't concern me at all (and doesn't concern our CEO either - watching the latest interview with him he states we are building a mine which will perform in all pricing environments). Obviously total upside is dependent on lithium pricing and so there is an awful lot of headroom if the current pricing prevails. But on a cost / FCF side production cost per tonne should be well below price per tonne in all scenarios.

- can the company build a mine? The company per se haven't built one but the CEO has, and Piedmont have partnered on the basis that they can, which is good enough for me - they will do a hell of a lot more DD than I could.

- funding - Piedmont, this isn't really at risk? Unless by some reason we massively overrun on build costs I guess.

Which leaves the final one which I guess is why we are valued at 32p when the upside is anything from 5x - 10x - 20x as you suggest:

- Permitting. And the reason we can tell this makes investors jittery is the recent bear attack and the temporary suspension of trading shows just how jumpy investors are about this. I'm not overly concerned (other than the one really bad experience I had investing in a miner which didn't receive a licence) but I do believe that despite all the other factors in our favour this may keep the brakes on a little while longer.

Now the interesting question is - if the DFS is first and presents huge upside. Fear/Greed - will new investors pile in not wanting to miss the upside or will they sit on the sidelines till ML is published?

And what if the DFS / (first stage) ML are received in short order - as seems likely from the post about the mining licence being in 'Approval' stage?

I'm still working on a more conservative upside something in the £1.50-£3 range would do just fine at production but just when the market decides we are de-risked enough to value us at a decent chunk of those numbers we just have to wait and see!

Only 3 and a bit weeks of the quarter left, should be a good one. GLA

I grabbed any more yesterday with the last available free cash I'll have this year (till next Feb). And I sincerely hope we are too expensive to want to buy any more next Feb!!! Eagerly waiting now for the DFS and the new drill/reserve analysis results. Realistically we'll be investable right up until nameplate production there will always be upside but I imagine most would prefer to pay 32p this year than £1+ next? GLA

Https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/ecograf-posco-international-ink-non-binding-anode-development-agreement

Worlds largest ex China anode manufacturer now with an interest in 2 Tanzanian graphite miners. Joint the dots - its a tricky one.

>>The reality is most decent junior miners/project will sell, the rest will fold.

I guess I meant - of the ones that make it (because they are viable assets worthy of development) most will sell and the junior won't own the mine through LOM. Of course, many won't make it and will fold, usually a long time before production, sometimes because they can't get production to be profitable. That means they either screwed up or the asset/commodity was borderline unprofitable at the cost of production.

Most serious investors IMO (and I don't mean traders, and I don't mean 'I want to get rich this year and I'm an investor' investors) invest for income - whether that's FTSE, Nasdaq, whatever. I guess one of the reason AIM doesn't get so many serious investors is probably because it's a casino and many cos don't make it to income. But imagine, for a minute, that some do. That's certainly the case on a few I own (and I hope, on ACP also) - they are likely to become producers or, more likely to be attractive for a T/O.

Because over LOM, and with the extensions, and enhanced basket prices, you could have 50p+ income here over LOM. Does that sound exciting from a share price of 1.2p (or, for that matter, 4p?) Of course it does. It just isn't a given. But that's the risk of investing especially if you want to 10bag or more.

The reality is most decent junior miners/project will sell, the rest will fold. So what you want is for this to sell as far down the line and producing as you can. Many don't make it to production before sale. But if someone snapped us up right now you'd get your 4 or 5p back - it's not what I invested for. I'm realistic - I won't see 50p. But 10-20p is realistic and I think MB with 8% of the company will want that too - assume 100m shares post dilution for him the mcap figures I talked about look like £10m+. I have roughly half his shares so I'll happily take £5m. Worth holding on for especially as jsd says - lots of external interest in the region and graphite generally.

And who's going to buy Armadale? Well if it really does have an IRR of 100%+, and there is a producing mine next door, there should be plenty of interest because those numbers are off the scale for miners and very attractive for development.

>>Any idea what the mcap will in 2 years. Any guesses?

Built a mine and producing (I think that's the earliest realistically that we could be producing, allowing for BKT to get ahead, we get finance/permit 1yr, then mine build 1yr): £100-150m mcap on £250m+ net NPV

Not build a mine and not producing: £10-20m mcap on expectation of progress/sale

£100-150m I expect to be 10-15p sp which is 10x todays price. Personally think 2 years is an minimum (2025 nameplate production) and 2026 is more realistic. I'm certainly planning at least 3 year more hold.