Member Info for wasarunner

O/T really wish the rest of my portfolio was as solid as HZM. Probably a few on here think the same! Easy to look in hindsight and hindsight trading is always too easy -> I once (and for quite a long period) only held Horizonte as the only share in my portfolio. Huge risk but I would be better paper position today than the so-called de-risking strategy. Flipside is it only takes one big problem in Brazil or a nickel price crash and your 1 stock strategy is toast. Swings and roundabouts....

Possibly Cannacord but who cares, we have Fidelity. And hopefully soon other institutions interested in very limited shares available. Apart from the odd larger trades volumes are miniscule so the theory still holds that when demand arrives there won't be shares to sell. Still trading at massive discount to NAV demand will arrive when risk is gone, will that be next month, next feb who knows but one day many will want shares and there won't be any and those will e regular 10p+ days until we are well above £2.

We were 90p not so long ago. 160p is not a bad rise from that level but there is more ahead. De-risking news/updates will be the catalyst, I am sure of it. Very risky now (imo) to sell expecting to buy back cheaper. That is not guaranteed to happen.

>>There has to be a hiccup soon ,because this is all looking far too good :-))

Hopefully the hiccup was the amount of initial cash needed then then extra funding but (touches wood) the build seems to be going well! Not out of the woods yet and certainly not fully derisked which is probably why we are still at 0.4-0.5x NAV but yes, starting to look very good. I think by middle of next year, with a pathway to A2 funding proposed, and Vermelho DFS in, if we're producing some nickel, we will be in an entirely different ballpark of valuation - and 1 more year is really not a long time to wait now. GLA

>>Appointment of Barclays is an interesting step. Certainly a level up from existing brokers.

Big in M&A. Just saying....

Come on, go properly, so we can get on with it....

>>Where did the money come from to purchase the ferronickel processing equipment?

The Agreement provides for a low upfront cost of US$600,000 payable in cash ... so probably petty cash tin then - unlikely to have made a dent in the A1 capex figure!

Yes I believe the site works (groundworks), road, power etc are shared so you don't incur 2x capex on A2. And I know they bought the second hand furnace. I guess that's why the A2 DFS will be interesting because it should really confirm how much of that can be used and what the cost saving is. I'm sure they'll use it if they can, and I'm also sure they'll plan to build A2 at the earliest point possible by the financing (by whatever the best route to finance it is at that point in time). Obviously as shareholders we want as much debt/fcf/other funding options as possible and not equity if possible...

I think there aren't facts to be communicated (otherwise they would be communicated). And their choice (not saying it is right or wrong) is to not communicate the lack of progress, rather than to communicate that there is no progress. Just my opinion that, not something I've been told btw.

For me, Blackrock sign their deal, clock starts ticking. On communication / progress. It is pretty obvious at the moment (to me at least) why we are waiting for them. There is a bigger deal going on there behind the scenes tie up non Chinese investment into Tanzania.

We're all frustrated by the lack of progress. I am too. It's how you respond to it that matters:

1. Blame yourself. You picked a slow jurisdiction / bad management. You pushed the buy button - so your responsibility. You knew there were no graphite mines in Tanzania so you took a punt. You can live with your decision whether it works out, or not.

2. Blame the company/BOD/Tanzania/China/Covid/war/inflation/your Mrs. They made you invest your money in a prospective graphite miner in the hope of making 5 bags next week. It was them that got it wrong.

I tend to put myself in the first camp so if I got the decision wrong it was my decision. Pointless whinging about it to strangers on a BBS even if it is frustrating. All I know from everyone I've ever spoken to (who actually physically do business in Africa) is -> it's slooooooooooow. (That and palms need to be regularly greased but that's another story). GLA

It's not a given A1 can completely fund A2 (remember capex on A1 went from $430m DFS -> $700m+ raised) so it isn't going to be cheap - which is why I think the nickel price matters so much. of course it could, if we wanted to wait 5 years for it but the company will be under pressure to expand both in case a bid comes but also because the principals like La Mancha will want them to. Plus the BOD are incentivised to expand it as they have their options/shares etc. will all be worth a lot more with 2 (or 3 ) lines running than 1.

I guess it will become a lot clearer once we have the A2 DFS. What pickedpeck makes sense release it in September in conjunction with commissioning news and also end of the summer break in the city could be good timing.

On the risk of it not working once assembled agreed this is a biggie - the problem with these process plants which was explained to me by a better engineer than I am is - it only takes one part of it not to work and the throughput stops (or is massively reduced by a bottleneck). I guess this is why we have 1 year to ramp up to nameplate but I think that year will assume a production profile during the year - i.e. the sooner you are producing _some_ nickel the sooner you are covering some of your costs.

Exciting times anyway. A2 DFS and start of commissioning are the main milestones I'm looking ahead to at the moment! Hopefully end of summer. GLA

Never forgot to mention those but I'll repeat it here for clarity. I've bought every number up to 4.5p and my average is somewhere around 3p (maybe a bit under). Average is relatively immaterial, as it will all be in the money if the mine gets built (and will be worth nil if it isn't).

Not without risk. This from the Sunday Times:

The AIM market has lost 26% of its value since inception (1995).It is 31% lower over the last five years and is 14% lower than last year. Over the same period since 1995, the FTSE 100 is up 83%, 3% down over 5 years and up 4% on last year. The US market...the S&P 500 is up 535% since 1995,up 61% over 5 years and 19% on last year.

But we all know this don't we so we know the game we are playing right?

Nope sea of green so talking to myself here. Last time I checked still no up and running graphite mines in Tanzania. Once there are say 6 or 7 and we aren't out of the blocks I'll start to worry about my investment here, in the meantime it's back to the patient waiting game.

I'm buying, just not every day. I picked up 1.5m shares the other day at a fraction above 1p. As per my other posts on the subject my eventual target is 10p+ so I make that a 10 bagger at least. Got time, and time is what you need. Position for the cycle, not the next week, month, or even next year. Fundamentals are everything (and ACP's fundamentals are good), important not to have high cash burn and constant raise - tick. Mgt - we will see. If you don't trust the mgt don't buy, I get it. But I'm in - now a fraction under 30m shares. The graphite is the graphite, the grade is the grade, the capex is the capex, the graphite demand is the graphite demand. For me, it all points to an eventual win, even if it isn't next week or even next year. GLA

Hi Theorist - 2x as a ballpark makes sense because Jeremy Martin has referred to it on the investor calls (that we are 50% undervalued relative to peers). And this is again indicated in the presentation (page 6):

https://horizonteminerals.com/news/en_20230704_corporate-presentation.pdf

Whether you use the datum for this being £1.40 or £1.50 or £1.60 is almost immaterial because the upside is large.

I think two things become fundamentally important to Horizonte's future next year (and to shareholders eventual returns), namely, 1. how quickly and without obstacles can A1 get to nameplate/near nameplate and 2. the nickel price.

The reason I think the nickel price next year is of paramount importance to the company is that a strong nickel pricing environment opens many more possibilities for funding A2. And I do believe that if A2 can be funded on attractive terms then of course £3+ at that point becomes a very likely outcome as it will factor into the eventual NPV.

It will be interesting, I know there is downside risk to nickel pricing but also expect big demand so will be interesting to see how it plays out next year...

And current mcap just over 2x gross revenues (based on $20k/t) from A1 so still very low for production numbers. Especially with our relatively low cost base....

Playing around with numbers - it would seem sensible to price the company in USD as the value of sales will be in USD.

Current price £1.60 x fully diluted shares 330m x GBPUSD 1.31 = $690m mcap fully diluted

I'm not sure what percentage of the NPV of Araguaia 1 that is, and that obviously depends on the prevailing nickel price anyway, but definitely a lot of upside for Araguaia 1 even assuming c ~$1bn USD leaves around 50% upside so maybe 80p to £2.40. That is a minimum gap I would expect to close by nameplate production without pricing in anything for A2 or Vermelho, add the latter and £3 should be very doable next year (as a minimum).

Ironically the weaker $ to GBP is less favourable to us now we're financed (I don't 100% understand why the $ is weak v GBP when their interest rate is high buggers my theory that the UK is the basket case economy in the west) but I haven't been following the $ of late. Of course it matters more at a time when we are drawing our dividends in GBP or a sale value for the whole company in $. GLA

In fact having them completely out by the time the A2 DFS lands would be absolutely ideal.....

Just a hunch but Cannacord -> Fidelity seems the logical conclusion. As one is TR1 on the way up, and the other is disappearing off the institutional register.......

IMO the quicker Cannacord are completely out the quicker we can move on. Having many % of the company to sell has been a real problem all these months....

My not technical analysis is this: since the main finance round, where we fell roundly down through the 8p / 160p mark (and around the area I divested some of my holdings) back to the placing price, and then below it as the shoddy institutions which were invited in flipped, and the PIs (like me) who were peeved by the dilution wavered, we briefly broached the 8p / 160p mark before the war/inflationary spiral correctly guessed we needed more financing.

Now we're back at that level and I think we're in a different position entirely - all the 'so called' weak hands have gone, the flippers (both PI and II) have flipped, the smart money (ala Fidelity) are in, and we're 6 months+ from first metal. I'm watching this 160p level keenly because I think when it goes we surely rerate - what will be the catalyst?

I compared the April 23 corporate presentation to the July presentation and note this item is missing: in April 23 page 11:

https://horizonteminerals.com/news/en_20230424-corporate-presentation.pdf

"May - August: Araguaia Line 2 Feasibility Study results"

which in the July presentation is no longer mentioned. May-August is quite a tight timeline and also quite close to the feasibility study contract being awarded but why not - one would assume the company doing the PFS (Snowden?) did a good job and it only needed bringing in line with the capex estimates et al with Line 1.

Assuming this is no track we have a maximum month or so to wait and I can easily see A2 DFS, plus the commencement of commissioning (which was mooted for mid Q3) being the catalysts to push us through this level. That and the proximity now 6 months+ to first metal.

Always good to draw a line from a point in time where we had 1 less mine, nickel was $11k/t and we had 1/10th shares in issue and predict a future price based on it. Almost as useful as watching for gaps :) (ducks for cover)...