Member Info for wasarunner

Theorist yes a very valid point and it may play that way in the next couple of years. Obviously we're protected to an extent by being lowest quartile cost but to make good money high share price and to be able to use FCF from Araguaia 1 to finance expansion we need a solid nickel price. To mitigate:

- I have been doing some reading that although Indonesia are bringing a lot of supply on line their (good quality) reserves are being depleted. This means eventually they will be mining at higher cost / lower grade and we will increasingly be more competitive especially with our power cost being cheap hydro. Every time I have asked this question directly of the BOD we are very competitive on price v Indonesia - other producers are not so lucky.

- Class 1 nickel / battery will suck a lot of nickel out of the traditional stainless market so obviously total demand for nickel will rise.

But yes ultimately it might come down to whether ESG actually matters and whether customers will pay a premium for clean nickel. But undoubtedly Horizonte's shareprice will start to correlate closely with nickel price because it will ultimately affect the bottom line no doubt about it.

My actual slightly bigger concern is that Indonesia are bringing a lot of cheap HPAL online how Vermelho will compete against that. I asked this question at the last investor meet/webinar. It is obviously a downstream worry because we still have Araguaia to get right first and I guess we will find out when we see the Vermelho DFS next year and what the plans are.

Thanks Rover - I was looking at this without realising it had been updated!

Things I noted this morning:

- a large number of engineering tasks complete in Q3 (notable exception is the 'construction' timeline which continues to end Q4)

- commissioning starts mid Q3 at some point presumably there might be an announcement when this commences as it is probably a key milestone also

- and last but not least - WE'RE MINING! So at the bottom there is an item 'Commence Mining' with Q2 next to it in green, as I understand it this might be the initial stockpiling of ore which is already underway? In which case depending on your viewpoint - we might be classed as a producer right now :)

Exciting times. Roll on Q3 and the next announcements!

The reason I think we should move upwards (aside from the fact that we are nearing key milestones - construction complete, start of commissioning, 6months+ from first metal etc) is - I just don't see who the sellers will be. And the price of a stock is really simply determined by the ratio of buyers to sellers and what price they are prepared to buy and sell at:

- if you were a PI back in the day and were disappointed with the raise(s) you have either already sold up (as some on this board did and have left), or you have trimmed your position to what you think is your risk/weighted position going to production for the upside you expect (as I have)

- if you were an ii taking a position in the first raise at 140p, well, you could either already have sold up for a peanuts return (or flipped near the raise) or, you are probably holding for proper money at production

- if you are Cannacord hopefully you are nearly out and don't have many to sell

- if you're one of the 69% (from Horizonte website 28th April) institutional shareholders who aren't Cannacord, you're not going to sell. You understand the Lassonde curve and you're waiting patiently for production (and if like me you think we will get sold you are waiting for the liquidity event)

- if you were one of the financiers in the last round at 90p (were there even any that weren't our big institutions) you've either already taken your money at 140p area or you're waiting for production.

- if you were a PI or small insti with an eye for a bargain at 90p/100p area you've picked these up and possibly already sold them or you decided, per the above, that production is where we are at.

So IMHO only, barring macro events or a setback with the mine build or a problem with nickel market itself, this close to production especially, I just don't see where selling will come from. With 69% in firm institutional hands (and I expect this number to grow especially if the Cannacord stake is being picked up by another insti) and no sellers, when the news lands that we're going to be a producer, or A2 economics are going to be fantastic and there is a financing plan, I am expecting a proper SP squeeze up because buyers won't be able to find the shares.

I'm expecting the rerates actually to be stepped, but rapid. Similar to the rise from 90/100p - 140p area - it didn't take long. GLA

I was trying to position for the next leg up but whoever is buying these chunks is taking a much bigger position for the same, clearly!

Maybe cannacord are selling to whoever is buying and their trades popup later?

It was suspicious I couldn't get more than £10k at a go both weeks I tried there's bigger things going on in the background I think.

200k shares @1.48

After the latest presentation a lot of grey areas are answered for me. It is going to be longer than I expected (in a previous webinar I asked for confirmation of production Q1 2025 and that was a yes, now we're looking at DMS in April 25) which is the only downside vis a vis my original investment criteria. But I'm used to that as literally 0% of my investments have come in on my original timeframes this goes with the territory.

The upsides:

- pricing is really conservative on the DFS. The difference between NPV $1.5bn and NPV $5bn is enormous so we're on a highly geared ratio to the spod price which of course as we all invest in lithium for the upside we all expect to be better than $1.6bn.

- I don't think we will be struggling for funding options. In my original investment I figured 750m shares I think that or less dilution is very possible so on that basis very happy with the investment.

At $5k/t spod $5bn NPV adjusted for 45% interest after gov free carry I make circa £2/sh is very doable. That's a ~7x from my average of 30p area and that's a very tasty upside for 2-3yr wait.

I also happen to think that the longer we're cheap(ish) relative to NAV and as soon as the permits are all in we're ripe for a T/O (at premium of course). So anytime from mid 24 there could be an offer and if it is juicy enough you might see a return a lot sooner here than production. All IMHO GLA etc.

Thanks tdt will have a look and sorry to the board for o/t!

Https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/posco-to-invest-us92b-through-2030-in-batteries-hydrogen-20230703-p5dlgn

USD $92bn is a big number. A really big number. We know they like the look of Tanzanian graphite as part of their portfolio with their recent deals with BKT.

"next couple of months as we work through the permitting process" from Keith...

Expecting ML this quarter and the whole permitting process to conclude in 9-12 months is what I heard (earlier on the call)

Very interesting on the payback - the reason the period has gone up so much is it starts when the DMS starts producing. As the DMS produces less cash it extends the period but of course in reality the payback period is now shorter from start of main mine production.

Just watching the preso:

NPV tracks really nicely with SC6 price. $1.6k/t is ~$1.5bn NPV, $5k/t tracks to $5bn+ NPV. So you multiply the SC6 price by a million you get the NPV - nice easy maths.

Its pretty clear the massive upside comes from the pricing at production. The DFS is pretty conservative really. GLA

Lawrence I suspect the 20:1 was for the insti's and not our benefit! Probably helps to get the likes of Fidelity on board.

If the reason for the stagnation has indeed been Cannacord selling (and no other major reason) then it has to be finite and transient and at some point we will move up. As Horizonte have made plain on the various presentations we are trading at around half of what other nickel miners are on an NPV valuation for Araguaia 1 alone (granted, some on the list may be producing). Even if you take that at £1.40 then the gap to peer valuation £2.80 is large and should fill as we get to production, perhaps by mid 24 latest?

My target of £4 assume we get further than A1 producing. Whether or not that happens before we get taken out (for me) is the unknown....

The thing that stands out for me in that proaktive article is that Posco have a requirement for the entire current global supply equivalent graphite by 2028. That's ridiculous - and the thing that makes it pretty much impossible to achieve is the qualification period which is required to establish the grade & purity. So even if you can source that much graphite around the world you're just not going be able to prove it in time. We know BKT spent a lot of time and money qualifying the graphite at Mahenge and as our graphite is an extension of the same then it does feel like we will be very well placed when eventually this demand kicks in. GLA

O/T but some of my moving money around is around timing, I've been shuffling the pack a bit as pickedpeck puts it because I do feel that out of my investments a few have 'stalled' for the time being (but will come good eventually). I have a position in a lithium miner don't want to cross ramp but for e.g. their first production moved back so I've positioned those shares in the bucket that can take the longest /sipp and moved Horizonte to the shortest/trading.

Because Horizonte are now building the mine short of a black swan event it doesn't seem possible to stall anymore so the timeline looks nailed on +/- months. The only thing that isn't clear (yet) is how they proceed with the future phases of A2 and V but that should become apparent in due course. In a strong nickel environment I don't expect much delay between A1 and A2 (even if it there is a delay before start of construction of V due to the large capex/funding partner required) so have been positioning accordingly. I expect Horizonte to reach my target valuation in 2025-26 if we don't get taken out first and my target price is £4. GLA

Nope - I'm kicking myself for buying at 4p when you can buy at around 1p at present! Instead of 5% I could own 20% here....never mind. Going to be good when it happens...

as I put on the earlier post - the two big transactions this morning are mine - sell (trading account) buy (SIPP). 'put through' trade I think it's called. GLA

I hope so Bwana. Must say I find this stepped approach to rerate quite perplexing - we were at 90p/100p for a while (when the market probably correctly guessed we needed more cash) then this 130-150p range while we're building the mine. I assume big institutional buying will come at the next de-risk phase maybe construction complete or commissioning start.

What I have noticed (I have been buying in the last few weeks is there just isn't the kind of volume available to buy that an institution would want. I've taken 2 or 3 x £40k buys (split across smaller transactions) in the weeks and it goes to no quote quite quickly so I dealt at market best often paying above ask. From what I understand this means when institutions want to buy in size there just won't be the shares available (unless another institution sells - so e.g. Fidelity buying Cannacord selling may have been the trade in the past few months) - where are they going to get the shares from if I can't buy £40k?

Mine build seems to be on track looking forward to the next update the kiln arriving on site has to be a big milestone as it is a really big piece of kit and has clearly had a long journey! GLA

1 sell 1 buy executed near bid

Indeed, looking forward to it. The outside trades today are mine (bed & sipp or equivalent...)