Member Info for wasarunner

Super busy day so not much time to digest yet but my take at a high level:

- DFS is good, is it as good as we expected is hard to know - as ever the spod pricing is very conservative by what is expected (by me, others, industry analysts) at production but it has to be this way for financing etc. This is where there is enormous upside so if you are a. holding to production and b. confident pricing will be well above DFS pricing then you will make good money here

- market doesn't like the timescale, perhaps, increased capex, perhaps. Yes there are inevitably short term traders in the stock these will depart quickly once the possibility of quick $ has gone so perhaps explains the price movement but I've long ago stopped trying to guess short term movements and also we're in the kind of market where - announcement exceeds expectations - news gets sold down - announcement doesn't meet expectations - you get crucified. I don't think we're crucified but clearly we're not flying today either.

I think there are loads of positives in the DFS like the fact that the DMS plant is going to derisk the critical phase of the main mine build (financially) and help train staff to reduce commissioning time - commissioning time is so overlooked in mine builds but it can be the longest phase of the project if it doesn't go to plan!

As we get closer to production the sp will start to adjust to actual NPV not the NPV stated in the DFS if spod pricing is higher. I also happen to think once there is clarity on how all the capex is funded we will have the first proper rerate at the moment that bit isn't obvious and if there is any financial uncertainty the market reacts badly to that. I think we have a good BOD and they will find a path. I hold. GLA

...or you use the FCF not for dividend but for expansion. That's how ambitious miners do it....

>>The 19 months payback is just, as stated, and indicator. That is not likely to be how it's done though and hence isn't stated as that.

100% EEA. It is never done like that. Apart from anything else, if you spend literally all FCF on capex payback then hit a production problem you're screwed. No the debt should be longish term debt (10 years is long by this measure) and you pay it back over LOM ideally.... so in terms of operating profit and dividends they can come a long time before the capex is fully paid down.

i'd say £2k of sells is not really worthy of comment. it was obvious somebody would sell before suspension as it's a pretty poor rns but thankfully it's a £2k seller not a £200k seller with a big holder exiting due to any worry about what the auditory might have found. not that you could sell £200k if you tried.

the sp is on its **** because the company made 250oz in a quarter and now we don't get to see accounts - it is what it is. have to hold, wait for auditor, wait for the accounts, then wait for the next quarters op update where hopefully number is > 250oz.

I think the sp weakness is macro/market fear rather than specific to ALL or anything to do with the ML just to be clear. Big money also waits for clear macro signals before investing, as well as company news - which is one reason we may not initially get quite the rerate we deserve even post DFS and post ML if the macro picture isn't clear. (they really care about interest rates, inflation rates, consumer demand etc.etc) My personal investment decision is around macro in 2025-26+ - do I believe the interest rate cycle will have run its course, inflation under control around the world, commodity boom/energy transition underway, key shortages of key minerals with lots of capital looking for a return. Really you're positioning for that here unless you are a short term trader trying to guess what happens next week....and then 30p is a relatively clear bargain IMO!

GoneRogue - sounds positive. I understand your wait for clarity on ML (and possibly DFS) as I put in other posts I think the 'smart money' if I can call it that always does as does the 'big money' which is usually institutional investors. They like to know a. the economics of the thing they are investing in and b. the probability that it will pass all regulatory hurdles being very high (sometimes/often to the point of full licence no more risk which may be another +1year here on the permitting side).

For maximum upside I have always invested pre finance pre dfs pre ml and this has sometimes worked better than other times for me - it is the riskiest option of course! The upside is (usually) bigger but not always, the risk is always greater. So I guess the equation here is relatively simple - the buy price is clearly +/- 30p pre DFS pre ML. The question is what price post DFS post ML and what is the time gap (and order) between the two. There is no right and wrong answer - if I take the odds and buy at 30p and post DFS and ML the sp is 50p and the ML is awarded was I right - perhaps but if the ML didn't come based on the DFS I was 100% wrong to take that bet.

I'm kind of in the - DFS will be very good - 100% certainty camp. ML will be awarded on the basis of the DFS for me is 90%+. Sov funding is a grey area I don't know the terms but it doesn't concern me overly because whatever (if any) dilution I think the DFS upside will counter. So I'm in the 'this is the buy point' camp but completely understand other investors waiting, esp institutions.

Hopefully not long to wait. GLA

As for our SP: AIM All share is at 757, -30% 5yr, -16% 1yr and was only below this level for about 1 month at peak fear in the covid crisis. We are in a really dire market (perhaps the bottom but anyone who calls the bottom is braver than me :-) ). Have a feeling for wider markets interest rates need to turn (in my view UK will turn late but we need to see reversal in US etc.) and end to the war might really help - had really hoped that would be by now. With high interest rates persisting 'bad markets' will persist which is great if you're in accumulate mode and really bad if you're in 'need cash out of the stock market mode'. IMHO at this point you have to dig in and wait for production here and the sp will take care of itself over that cycle. GLA

FWIW (and I might be wrong as I don't know the process, but do surmise it). I think DFS and ML are to some extent coupled - why - well you wouldn't publish a 'detailed feasibility study' without an eye on whether the regulator would allow your plan. Or if you do, you run the risk of spending lots of $m on a plan which then doesn't get approval because your assumptions on what the regulator will accept were flawed. You can start your plan again to what they will accept and you've lost time and money.

That's why I expect there is toing and froing and engagement with the regulator throughout the process - as the company finalises the DFS surely it is passing it by the regulator for review to make sure in principle the parameters are acceptable. Things like, tonnage, tailings plans, transport plans etc.etc. It's inconceivable to me that the Ghanaian authorities don't have good visibility of the DFS parameters before an official RNS lands to the market.

If this is indeed how the process works then there is a necessary time coupling - you haven't finalised your DFS until you've finalised your resource estimate and at least had a virtual rubber stamp that the project looks ok tot he regulator. It doesn't mean the initial ML lands on the same day as the DFS but it does probably mean one depends on the other. So if the DFS is later than expected then it could well be that the relevant authorities in Ghana are reviewing it and 'giving the nod'.

Why do I think this also is that on his interview Keith said initial ML hopefully in Q2, failing that early Q3. Even if the company can release the DFS without the ML being officially sanctioned I suspect they will only release it when they know the ML is coming and the licence is 'in the bag' and all but issued. This may delay the DFS and it may not be in the companies control.

I guess the process varies country to country - I've only seen one instance where ML wasn't awarded (and it cost me a lot of money) and a DFS was published - but it was uranium in Europe and eveyone knows we don't like to mine things in Europe esp hazardous stuff - we prefer to dig up other parts of the planet instead.

The added complication here might be the investment by the sov fund. If it is tied to the deal and it affects the DFS/economics of the mine you've got another round of dependencies. These take time to sort. Just my musings....

I would say 30.5p -> 31p a couple of days ahead of company making news in the current market is FOMO :) At this rate we'll be 31.5p in no time! (sorry couldn't resist). GLA

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/428#

sorry if already posted before.

I had thought end of week for the DFS update but someone I chat to offline pointed out the proactive investor event is on 28th June (Wednesday) and Atlantic are attending. Normally you think you'd attend the event if the DFS has been published to give you something to talk about which hasn't already been talked about, which might make the RNS more likely tomorrow/Wednesday? But not a given I guess...

I guess normally I'd say 40p+ on a great dfs seems doable just not sure we're in that kind of market atmo. There can be things in the dfs or announced alongside it we aren't expecting (like funding options) which can have an additional additive effect of course. Say a partner is lined up for some of the other 50% offtake and is prepay etc etc..... this could land alongside/with the dfs.

Would be good if we did. My concern short term is the market is really weak so a rise may get sold off. We seem to be bouncing around 30p support 1 week before the news is due - normally you would have expected buying in the runup to news (from traders if nothing else).

For investors with cash and time it is actually a really good buying opportunity pre dfs - this close at this price. Whether we climb post dfs the market eill decide and isn't always based on fundamentals! I added more last week in any case...un the sipp, and for/to production.

DFS next week then? Looks like it. I expect it to be a good one! If you have sufficient time (1-3 years) and the DFS tells you the upside, and you trust that Ghana will grant the licence and Keith can build the mine then post DFS it really is a sit back and watch your investment grow moment. But nevertheless patience is hard... as I said on my other post the excitement for me would be around what is possible with the DMS plant and how baked into the DFS is it -this could be the best short term catalyst for the company. GLA

Swest this is true and I've seen it on other stocks also (peer valuations similar commodity stocks being valued lower in London markets than say ASX or TSX). The reality I think is, traders aside, the big money is to be made by getting to production. Sure the stock will rerate before that and rise with each de-risking step but production is where the jam is and because so many AIM stocks don't get to production (whether it's because they get taken out, run out of cash whatever) picking the ones that do is the art and that's where the big bags are.

What LL says is true for the sp it's all about volume and in my opinion (and my opinion might be wrong) a £200m mcap company like ALL needs decent institutional buying to get it much much higher and they don't like risk. So your AIM punters (me included) get you to a certain level but then you need that big bucks buying to move you up a couple of bags to say £1 here.

Personally I think the gamechanger here would/will be if we can demonstrate that we'll be producing in just over a year. 1 year is a classic Lassonde point and then if the initial mine licence is received say July/August this year following a whopping DFS which clearly states 'this is the DMS we're going to set up this is how much it is going to produce and this is how we are going to fund it' I think the company will be viewed differently by institutions.

I get the point about reserves but for e.g. my other stock (HZM) has 4m tonnes of nickel reserves and every time it increased reserves it didn't do so much for the sp - the sp is moving on construction of the mine. You can have all the reserves you want but you have to build the mine. I think reserves come into their own at the point of T/O obviously - twice the reserves will mean twice the bid price in due course so absolutely no harm in expanding them (and the NPV of the prospective mine).

Anyway GLA, good things are coming but as ever patience is the name of the game....

In fact 5 year low if you exclude the 2020 covid 'crash'

AIM all share index is at around a 3 year low at the moment, apparently (looking at the 5 year chart). So suspect the price weakness is not company specific and traders take profit where they can. I think the markets (esp junior markets) are just very weak at the moment and in an environment like this rises get sold into.

Hi EEA - that was my reading of it too from the video - main mine slightly later than anticipated (H2 2025) but I see DMS as a nearly given from Keiths interview and hopefully a year earlier. What I am hoping to see in the DFS is quantification of what the DMS gives you in terms of output. If it is a decent (amount of) output then we're c. 1 year from production and I think we should see a very positive reaction - failing that at the point the initial ML is awarded as the 1 year ticker properly starts then.

I was puzzled by the drop overnight but took a chance and bought some more in SIPP. GLA

And again I'm no expert trader as I don't really trade but as GK says quite often the actual value you are offered on sell, or buy, is closer to bid than ask so the published spread is not really the real spread. This I've observed to be really common when I've gone to buy - the price you are offered really depends on who else is buying (or selling) at the time within the published spread or if you are buying a larger chunk sometimes I have had to buy/pay above ask.

>>Was, are you saying the bought sold numbers we can all look at in the fundamentals section above these comments is untrue.

Yes that's correct. It isn't published (by the stock exchange) so nobody knows for sure.

If you have infinite time and can watch level 2 etc. all day you can 'probably' work out exactly what each trade was (buy or sell) and most are reasonably obvious anyway.

But as an example on another stock I follow yesterday - there was an obvious bed and isa (£13k trade, 2 trades). These are normally executed at near bid (so you use lease isa allowance) and were fractionally apart in price. Both show on this website as sell because they were executed closer to the bid at the time than ask.

So you do have to interpret the buys and sells yourself you can't rely on the website or other tools. I'm generally not that interested in the day to day as I'm interested in the shareprice 3 years from now so I don't follow it that closely (volume or trade directions).