Member Info for wasarunner

Well it's pretty binary innit. They've mined gold -> it's worth more than 3p. They haven't mined gold -> it's as you were. I guess they mined gold judging by the price action! That's what happens when a shareprice falls to rock bottom - it can only go up pending even mediocre news! Lets hope the operational news is better than mediocre of course... GLA

Checking the significant shareholders on HZM site (update 13th April) shows:
Institutions: 186m
PI nominees: 22m

Assuming the ratio is similar in the <3% categories (and in any case the numbers above account for 77% of shares issued) then PIs hold 10.5% of the company and that's BEFORE the convertables convert for an additional c. 60m shares.

I know ii's are generally stickier holders so may account less for daily transactions but anyone believing it is going to be PIs determining the shareprice here in the future is wrong - once the conversions happen Horizonte is going to be 90-95% insitutionally owned.

Currently La Mancha/Glen/Orion hold c. 50% so if we assume those shares are completely out of circulation it remains only 50% of the company and again when La Mancha convert the ratio of available shares will be even lower.

The transformation has been rapid and (obviously) driven by the 2 sets of equity raises where PIs couldn't really participate as the numbers of $ required were far too large.

>>bid say 30% on the MCap and maybe a bidding war with Piedmont if it's not them with first bid.
Yes and it won't be 35p/sh!

haggis - I hope your numbers come to pass and upside is always attractive and we all invest for upside. I always plan for base case personally when investing only because it helps me attribute relative value to different companies - but obviously I'm not blind to upside and here I see upside from PFS number $1.3k/t to DFS number $2-2.5k/t to what we eventually might go on and produce in 2025 $4k/t+. Each of those steps is mahoooousive if your production cost is fixed probably resulting in a 2x on SP assuming always it is forecast average future price as at production the market should price us on future revs.

So in summary I'm happy with £1+ because that makes me confident to part with a lot of money to buy the share and we should see that with all scenarios which I expect to be better than the PFS. £3+ would be a bonus and earlier achievement of £1+ than I anticipated again a bonus but not central to my strategy. I got lucky ALL has been on my radar a long time but didn't put funds in, the BO drop (thanks BO, sorry for other holders) presented I think a rare opportunity to take a chunky position. Looking forward to the next few months / couple of years as I think it is going to be pretty juicy outcome here.

As I mentioned on my other post I still think the size of the asset here (especially if they continue drilling) means I think probability of staying indy tends to 0% so best outcome for me is a t/o at premium not too soon ideally production+. t/o price then is determined as much by how many / which bidders as any other metric based on fundamentals so lets wait and see but I don't expect to be holding these shares much beyond 2025-26 and that's really relatively short time horizon for a good outcome.

hasten to add - I'm a carp trader so I don't set out to do it but must admit I haven't had a rise of 30% on a share I bought in a couple of days for a long time so temptation is there but if you're an investor you have to zoom out and look at the bigger picture. A 5p gain is still peanuts compared to even 50p, 60p, let alone £1, £1.50, £2+ exit here and if you believe those numbers are not only possible, but very probably, you have to keep your money put IMO (so I did!)

If you're trading 30% in a few days is a great result and that's why there is consolidation at this level it's pretty obvious. But if you're trading you have to be happy to walk away from a share or buy in a different range because you don't really know whether tomorrow is going to be a -2p day or a +5p day. As an investor it never bothers me that people sell because the big money is yet to buy in here once we have the green light to build the mine and they'll take the PI shares all day long at that point. But the shareprice will be a lot higher and (IMO only) as an investor that would be the fist exit point to consider for someone not willing to wait till the mine is built. But with the mine built and producing in under two years from today. So for me - as an investor possible exit points: ML + DFS (50-60p+ July+?) mine built and producing Q2 2025 (£1-1.50+). Whether to sell any in July then is a decision but right now (for me, personally) there is no decision to be made - it's a solid hold/add. GLA

Will be when we hit £2.50! Gla

HI swest - agree 100% -> the beauty of sentiment is it creates fantastic investment opportunity because it is so irrational and ignores the fundamental. So you get amazing fundamentals (as we here) coupled with negative sentiment (li price drop, general market malaise, BO attack) creating this artificially low price. Long live sentiment it will always provide great investment opportunity and if your time horizon is 2yrs+ the day do day will not matter. I don't care what the share price is next week really I couldn't give 2 hoots now I'm loaded. I only care about 2025 at production and I'll wager we'll be many multiples of todays price.

Divis - would be nice but if the resource is tier 1 it doesn't tend to stay with the juniors too long. Everything I have researched so far this will be sought after and I expect a bid at production. Would be nice though (divis), just being realistic more likely a t/o.

Guess with capex + opex relatively stable increased price will make a dramatic difference to the npv. The challenge is always when the price is volatile does the market buy your npv figure. The closer you are to production and the closer the price is to your npv pricing then it really should do. Of course what you want is huge npv with conservative pricing because then the market understands your fcf at actual pricing will be off the scales. I suspect the dfs will pitch under current pricing then we will be pleasantly surprised (well, not really) at start of production when actual pricing is much higher.

I am very excited about both investments in total value I hold a lot more hzm but as of this week I now have 860m+ shares here and may try to get to 1m has a nice ring to it. I really like the numbers I especially like low opex - always try to position in miners with low opex they can ride anything once financed if bottim quartile. This investment ticks every box but obviously we need the all important licence. Gla

Then when ml lands I expect possibly more institutuonal interest and possibly a bigger jump....good to be in when that happens!

swest do you mean the coo? If so yes you can tell he know his stuff.

Friday was a whirlwind I thought just on technicals we should drop back a bit didn't happen. The rise won't be in a straight line but I think people just watching charts miss the bigger picture. This is financed. It just needs the licence. With hzm my other similar share we had thr licence but not the finance. Then the finance came a few months later we were st mcap 50% of npv (company had started building the mine).

What's thr npv here? $1-2bn+ pending dfs even at conservative lith pricing then factor modest further dilution possibly as part of gov deal and we should be min 60p-£1 funanced and permitted possibly over that when mine build commences. So it's tempting to say 25% is a great result but I would say 200% in next 8 months or so from current level is very possible on npv basis. Btw I do expect npv from the dfs to be huge but how the market values it is another thing. But for me 2x-3x from here to mine build then 5x+ from here mine built and producing (20 months+?) is very achievable. Suspect enough people know this that there will be mode buying than selling in next few weeks and we see steady progress upwards.

Google says:
UP 25% today +6.8p
Down 44.44% 1yr -27.2p

When the ML + DFS lands - it's the 27.2p gap that should get filled. That's a much bigger number and I am really thinking 50-60p is minimum post ML. It's not going to get filled today of course (unless the ML lands today - guess that's not impossible but it is unlikely...)

nm

Fair enough crig - didn't see that. They did all buy open market too though. I know they're confident of outcome and that's what matters here....

The Board of IronRidge Resources Limited (IronRidge or the Company) wishes to advise of the allotment and issue of a combined total of 3,500,000 unlisted employment options to two employees (or their nominees). The options have a strike price of 30 pence and are exercisable through to 9th April 2023.

I think she paid for them. Don't see anything in the original announcememt to suggest she hasn't.

We should see 2 sets of rerates really - one for the drop because of the spurious allegation and the second for ML+DFS. The reality is, to refute the spurious allegation totally, people will now want to see the ML -> that's human psychology for you. So IMO we might see a 'double' rerate when ML lands because it should restore the confidence of the pre allegation and then some gain for the further derisk factor of having the ML. It's also where institutions start buying. All IMHO. So the current rise may or may not have legs but I'm looking for a much bigger rise when the ML lands.

oh you can't anymore :0)

>>Surely the nod was given by the CFO investing £750k own cash at 30p..... I took it as a positive and added further this morning...
By which I mean - call me Einstein or Sherlock or something but if you can buy cheaper than she did a week or two ago then -> do? It's pretty simple? So I did!

>>Has someone been given the nod I wonder?
Surely the nod was given by the CFO investing £750k own cash at 30p..... I took it as a positive and added further this morning...