Member Info for wasarunner

Just wanted to throw my 2 pence - the case for T/O remains robust after today. Horizonte are looking at 14.5kt Araguaia Phase1 + 14.5kt Araguaia Phase 2 + 25kt Vermelho = 54kt/yr on current plan. Already decent numbers (I think JM said 7th on Ni producers list, certainly top 10). However, the resource is vast (and includes the third deposit) and clearly there is potential to scale up from these numbers, should a major be interested in so doing. Only IMHO and DYOR :)

thanks fulmar - me too, up to my neck in my case, but very happy with the position. wouldn't be self invested if I didn't think I could at least get slightly ahead of the institutions on risk/reward...

I'm curious and apologise for my ignorance here. Are we not yet at a stage where institutional buying could be expected? What are they waiting for - will they not buy on the open market ahead of other financing news, or do they need mcap north of £100m, or are they waiting for financing rounds? As I see it it is a massive opportunity as much for institutional investment as PIs yet I don't think we are seeing any institutional holders increasing positions, or at least, this isn't being communicated to the market (and we probably aren't seeing it in the SP). I get that institutions like to buy de-risked, and hence might be waiting for more news (and then potentially happy to buy at higher price) but my feeling is just on the investment timeline we are approaching optimal buying point?

ps I picked up that in the original PFS announcement JM statement was 'bottom half' cost, whereas the investor call has lowest quartile. Not sure if this is a first 17 years vs LOM thing, or whether it is just terminology, but I do think Vermelho is looking as lowest quartile which from my research on commodities investing is where one wants to be to be insulated from market movements...

I heard that too. I particularly liked the slide which pitched the Vermelho resource total/grade. I really like the big red bubble in the 'top contained resource/top grade' quartile of the peer group comparison. Very happy days here, IMHO...

Indeed, I think everyone is keen to add more, if only there were funds to do so. Today, with the NPV potential that has just been added, in the next 'in demand' market, and SP hasn't moved much - bargain of the century IMHO...

@fulmar my thinking too. I'm guessing they might want to now focus effort on Araguaia (and resources). I'm guessing developing a DFS is a whole bunch of work, time and money, and if you're going to involve a partner in the eventual delivery/build/production anyway, you want them onboard to flesh out the detailed plan. So maybe no committed timescales on it until we have a partner, say, some announcement in the next 6 months (I just made up a number!) :)

INteresting stuff - wondering if timescales on BFS/DFS for Vermelho are announced on the investor call. Or, I wonder if they will want a partner to actually get the BFS/DFS done? Therefore partner first, DFS later. Is the PFS sufficient to get the partner onboard, thoughts?

Anybody else think the only reason we are at 4-5p at the moment is that the finance terms aren't known? This currently prices a big dilution if we get our clearly much more than just viable (at current Ni prices) Araguaia up and running. In that context, can the Vermelho news help the sp? My feeling is I'm not sure, it might (unless it comes with other news) just cause more doubt about exactly how Horizonte can finance the builds.

What I think the market might not be pricing quite right is that the forecast demand/future pricing might make the 'terms' of financing increasingly a sellers market where Horizonte board hold a lot of cards. And when that corrects (we get the terms published, and they are much better than the market currently prices for) we will see a reasonably chunky re-rate? Thoughts?

Indeed - I've toyed with investing in funds in the past but eventually decided I'm happier making my own decisions and getting them wrong than blaming a fund manager for doing so (then regretting the fees they charged me for the privilege). I've gradually moved my pensions into SIPP for the same reason. I'm not stupid and I don't necessarily I can outperform the market or the experts but at least I can only blame myself for my decisions - I'm guessing other PIs will probably think this way too, I'm not alone?

>>Happy if they build personally

Second that Luke. I played again with the Araguaia NPV calculator at Nickel > $20k/tonne. That's an awful lot of FCF HZM will hopefully distribute to me, over LOM :)

Thanks for replies! I'd never heard of the cancelled trade before..

I've noticed negative volumes listed on LSE website HZM Trades towards the end of today, any ideas what that means? They are showing as sells. -250,000 volume etc.

I always thought the saving grace here is the share options - JM owns I think 28m options or around twice as many as I own shares. Options are 4.8p which is higher than my average. So my assumption (rightly or wrongly!) is that the board is incentivised to get the SP above 4.8p to realise the options and the resulting value. I presume once the mcap is over 100m those options are in profit and can be taken thereby massively increasing the boards shareholding?

Catching at risk of labouring the point I would say Vermelho pfs is almost certainly "imminent" :)

Lotto my geography of the Carajas region of Brazil stands corrected :-)

Lots of speculation but speculation is fun in the absence of news. I'm along for the ride as I never expected a return here for 5yrs+ from around now/start of mine build then it's all to play for. I'm pretty sure all the big news which is going to make this company will land in the next 6-9 months now - though JM caveats that in unfavourable market they would delay, now they have cash (and probably many PIs will exit then, or during that transition, probably/hopefully at some multiple of todays sp). I'm in for the long term and would only really consider slicing anything above 20p, but even then, probably not much if anything. So a few more years of watching the nickel price/lme stock and battery EV uptake to come, unless co gets sold of course...

Really interesting interview - it looks complicated juggling the two projects. By the sounds of it Vermelho is going to be leveraged to increase SP which can be used to secure financing for Araguaia at favourable terms. I actually wonder if the key to this working will be the appointment of a partner for Vermelho - therefore the partner announcement could be the catalyst which might move the SP into lets say the teens, at which point equity raise for Araguaia for remaining portion becomes possible.

It definitely also sounds like the timeline is key, he believes the window to get this done (with the nickel market) is right here right now so the next 6 months are pivotal. I personally feel as an investor at anything like the 3-5p range it is going to be hard to lose from here assuming the financing happens (for either project).

Lotto in the shard research note distance from vermelho to araguaia north is quoted 85km which would seem not too bad but I guess any distance adds cost where significant tonnage of unprocessed ore is concerned. I guess the good grades expected at vermelho might still make this economically attractive, if, for example the ore suitable for rkef (I always forget if this is the limonite or saprolite) ends up higher grade than the araguaia ore. I wonder if there is any simple metric of the trucking coat for a given grade, so say it adds x to the cost/tonne of produced metal? I guess the pfs might already detail this if the trucking route is a preferred starting option for vermelho.

Thanks guys as ever great replies. I guess Vermelho has lots of future potential (if ev is the future) so giving it away cheap isnt a good plan. I guess we might even see a 2 phase pfs like we had for araguaia with the optionality a major might find attractive for a bigger build. Hopefully not long to wait now and we find out.

Anyone think selling most/all vermelho interest to a jv or major could be used to fund second stage areguaia and possibly equity portion of first stage leaving araguaia undiluted horizonte interest attractive to the board? As I see it araguaia in and of itself is a company maker particularly with both stages in full production? Or is this too simplistic...