Member Info for wasarunner

Looks steady buying today. Someone bought £1.52 - it wasn't me. There's topping up and there's topping up!

how about you? Do you have a target? 30p is a pessimistic estimate btw - but it's around £500m GBP which is not insubstantial. Maybe twice that or more is possible who knows.

Hi Luke, when I first invested, I was aiming 20-25p for sale. I was buying around 4p. That seemed a good return. Incidentally I first invested Horizonte already had Vermelho, but almost no info on that at the time.

I really think the last year and a half so much more has become apparent, and so much progress has been made by the co, that personally I feel the sale price should be lot higher. I know the Onca Puma gets mentioned a lot but it was nearly a couple of decades ago, it is hard to be sure if it is a valid comparison.

I like to think of a minimum price now being achievable at 30p sale. I think that selfishly, because it is enough for my needs with my holdings. Any more is icing but of course, with such a return, and another 30 years to make money with reinvesting proceeds who knows, one can maybe do better than if Horizonte didn't get sold.

The main reason I am hoping for the dividend scenario is so I can forget about investing and get on with life! It is hard picking winners. In 20 years or so investing I've had winners/losers it's been pretty stressful and I've probably around broken even. I'm no expert. That's why picking 'the one', the golden goose that just keeps laying became my strategy. I think I've found it. If I'm right not only do I not have to worry about money again, I don't need to worry about investing again! All IMHO.

But short answer to your question - very happy with 30p and I think it seems realistic on every metric. I imagine most PIs would be more than happy with that - whether you bought 3p or 5p shares.

nice one :)

This is the dividend scenario I am in for and will stay invested till it happens or company gets sold.

At full production, Horizonte could be making $500m gross profit a year in a strong (north of $20k/t) nickel market.
Factor in JV, further equity on each project, tax. Lets call it $200m profit left for current shareholdings.
Lets say Horizonte distribute half the profit.

Current shareholders are looking at their investment back, every year, for 30 years. Almost irrespective of whether you paid 3p or 5p for your shares. I really believe 3-5p is possible as a dividend even assuming further dilution, all, of course, in a strong nickel market.

A bag a year for 30 years is a 30 bag. All IMHO. :) But it's what I'm in for. Now to get it all back tax free is of course, the challenge.

All assuming we don't get taken out next year of course. The Orion deal was 'compatible with all future forms of financing' which I believe would include being bought. We do after all have a nickel district containing 3.5m tonnes of nickel reserves and a potential to produce up to 60ktpa (or more?)

themuir - you're right of course, we're here to make money. I probably shouldn't have posted share numbers, it was meant to imply /show commitment and confidence but of course no way of proving it (and neither do I wish to). I'm comfortable that people posting here have holdings in this share and want it to do well. I believe it will. Onto the business then - on the supply/deficit chart Luke2 posted around 2025 gets really interesting. With a bit of luck we have Araguaia Phase 1+Phase 2 producing by then, and Vermelho Phase 1. Araguaia payback I make ~2.5 years at nickel $20k/t. That means by 2025, if the mine starts producing 2022 (not 2021 as I think mistakenly printed in the recent letter to shareholders), we could either be debt free on Araguaia, or probably have Phase 2 built. It all bodes very well and the nickel price and supply/demand will be the key in the next 3 years. GLA

zebbo - I'd add to that I (personally) believe this is fully derisked at current SP. I simply don't see getting less than your investment back at 3.x p. As a result of the lowish risk I'm now 'fully' invested - I hold no other shares - my other financial interests are non shares. So in summary - lots of upside (multiples), very little downside for me, from here, as long as one has a decent time horizon and can watch the EV story play out.

Added just over a million shares, as a holding in another share worked out. 15.7m shares now, doing my bit to keep the buying going in the quiet time! I like the fact that the debt announcement is due in Q1, my first target is that £100m mcap 6.9p ish where I hope we get to with the debt announced and any other tidbits of information relating to the rest of the finance package on Araguaia. Bonus would be partner announcement in Q1 on Vermelho which would surely also shift the SP north. All long term hold from here for me. GLA.

setting aside the size of people's assets (pardon the pun) for a wee while - where the hell did 60kt of LME nickel (Horizonte's eventual annual production capacity) magically appear from inside a week? Stockpiling/rushing the stuff out of Indo? Lets hope the pile reduces next year!

it's a fair point and respectfully taken. I post because I've learned a lot over many years of following the boards (for many years iii then here and the 'other' board) of people's opinions but obviously you have to take many things with a pinch of salt. I'm not 'rich' by any stretch - half the holdings are pension / SIPP. I figured I could do at least a good a job as the fund managers who were regularly reducing the size of my pension! GLA...

themuir - almost certainly, but getting rich doing the dayjob just didn't happen (for me) so had to try something different! GLA - to those invested here and to those not, have a great break and may next year bring untold riches etc.etc.

(sorry that's gross - including what I paid, and profit, excluding what I paid). 10-15p target next 6-12 months. But conviction hold beyond.

0.15 £2,193,010.80 £1,711,849.50

And my 12 month target

14620072 481161.3
how many (3 of us) have and how much we paid for them

mine+2 close family. As I said previously - 80% of my portfolio is invested here and I wanted to add more prior/post April 6th. Conviction buy for me, my other financial interests are non shares so that's my diversification....

I'm very in @14.6m shares currently. Just wanted my 15m and another 2 of those in ISA!

could they really not wait till April the 6th though?! Do people not understand we need it lower for another tax year...

Hi SonicView 1% of mcap. For personal reasons I no longer hold balanced portodilios I did earlier in my trading career. Mainly circa 80% hzm now. Risky, of course, but I have conviction and patience here and I have progressively increased both holding total and % of portfolio as (imho) the opportunity has derisked. Added what I thought was last tranche at 5p post orion finance then couldnt resist thw recent drop to current price. Average is a fraction above 3p more by accident than design! Gla!

Thanks both, so I guess this is very much personal circumstances driven - this is where of course the Institutions win, because they play with different time horizons and have no such personal circumstances.

I'm invested with partner and we would potentially look to trim for a house buy, but probably maximum 20% and probably I can wait around 2-3 years which therefore might bring us to mine built stage. At that point holding off selling if further SP appreciation is possible might be an option. My actual hope now is this gets to production and the ongoing dividend scenario plays out.

If say we saw 25p in the next year or two (I don't know if that's possible or likely) would probably trim sooner but again only around 20% I think.

Still can't see this selling for less than 30p and I think that would be absolute lowball stuff. But I guess some would welcome that if it happened on the much shorter time horizon - i.e. 2020.

Still fingers crossed I would like to add more by April but that is now driven by performance of other investments. I won't be selling a single share here (except to move to ISA) for a year or two. That's my 1% out of market circulation for the time being at least!