Member Info for wasarunner

I'm not a technicals guy but Nickel seems to have stabilised here (maybe this is bottom for now) and LME stocks seems to be levelling off. Horizonte seems to have bounced off the previous low so maybe the bottom is in? If confirmed on technicals that might bring more buyers next week. My 3.7p buys in previous weeks again far from perfect timing but should all work out in the long run.... nothing about the fundamentals has changed here and on reflection the company update was positive in the sense that they are on track on original timescales.

*$1.7bn.

though by the sp reaction at the time might as well have been million...

to be fair though the news in October was pretty good! $1.7m NPV added and all that...
it is as ever a patience game, never easy when one sees the SP drift to recent lows. Back to £15-£20m asset valuation level again ex cash.

That narrative also ties in with what JM was saying on his investor calls - debt needs to see equity, equity needs to see debt, that it is a complex interdependency. So for all we know we could be 95% of the way there but not find out until they are ready to announce the lot. So it could well be that all parties are very happy with the consensus price going forward and the business case for Horizonte getting Araguaia up and running and it is a case of agreeging/negotiating best terms and the finer points amongst themselves - maybe around precise numbers of how much will be the debt, how much equity etc.

Yes the future pricing (and the consensus Nickel pricing is pretty good in the years ahead certainly in the years Aaraguaia / Vermalho might come into production) should be the main consideration for the big investors (banks, equity partners, offtake partners). I have been wondering in the last month or two if the prevailing market conditions might have more impact on _when_ Horizonte can announce the finance deals rather than whether they have done the deals. So - if you don't want to announce already done deals into a weak market sentiment, batch them up for a release when you think market conditions will be more favourable.

Not sure what they gain by doing that (other than perhaps a bigger impact on the sp), and I don't know if such a consideration affects the equity part of financing, but to me at least it seems like in the current market keeping the cards close to chest is the way this is being played. Personally believe financing is far more advanced than has been publicly stated.

Thanks trading, that's a serious library there. I've followed pretty closely since Nov, read most of what has emerged since then and also back-read a bit but my knowledge isn't deep I will try to get up to speed, thanks! Currently EUA is around 5% of my portfolio which is probably about my knowledge level but that might improve...

Thanks mac, really appreciated. Will be interested to see how this unfolds. It's a patience game here (as elsewhere), I am hopeful this comes good in the next quarter or two but happy to hold long if required to production...

Thanks mac. Yes looking at the RNS' in reverse order they do continue the 'expand production volume at West Kytlim' theme so thanks for that.

In that case we expect maybe to expand production at West Kytlim irrespective of how, or in which direction talks are going if we haven't heard concrete news on asset sale. Again, and only because I am not familiar, can the co. already fund such expansion or do they need to rely on third parties (for example Sinosteel) for expansion at West Kytlim. I've read the discussion around how sale of MT (only) would allow substantial funding for a serious ramp up at WK but I don't know if EUA can independently fund expansion at WK without an asset sale?

Thank you for the pointers they are very helpful.

Can I please check from people who understand the business better (I am relatively recent investor since November/Dec and have small-ish stake and not in-depth knowledge here).

I get that if the company is in negotiations to perhaps sell MT or perhaps whole co, any further development on MT (e.g. the Sinosteel contract) will be on hold and we expect nothing to happen there start of mining season if we haven't heard anything by then.

What would we expect to happen at WK in that scenario, if we don't hear news on asset sale by start of mining season. Would the co. continue to start mining along the lines of 2019 production, or, if negotiating sale of MT only, would they potentially start to ramp up WK? Would we expect therefore news on what is happening at WK at start of mining to be some kind of indication on which way negotiations are headed on the bigger picture?

Of course, I understand that news on asset sale might land before start of mining season - it seems a reasonable bet that the timing of the sale announcement in October was designed to allow the winter closed season to get the negotiations done?

I'm woken up every morning at 7am by a Geordie lass - (partner from that region) going working.

I keep telling her she won't need to work for many more years because HZM will come good then she asks me how the SP is doing. I give her some waffle about 'this time next year' etc.

It does feel like our pies (mines) are 'oven ready' but somehow we've left them in the freezer. Need to defrost a bit before we get cooking them. Hopefully the mgt team are busy defrosting behind closed doors...

Hi Qualia I picked that up on the day of the call too, I actually don't know how the 10p is arrived at in the first instance so I don't know whether these are just approximations based on some assumptions (around future pricing etc). My hope, aft er the call last week, was that maybe this kind of range sets the benchmark for any equity portion of the financing due later in the year. I could live with 12-14p (or higher).

In my mind the call confirmed no negatives, so it might be designed to reassure serious investors/possibly instituational buyers in the run up to the financing news that all is well and this is investable.

To some extent it confirms my latest thinking that the financing news will come bundled together in short order. We had no firm indication that any finance news is due imminently but had the backstop of mid year/early Q3 confirmed. IMHO that might mean we are due 'big bang' type announcements, possibly one or more, more likely Q2 than Q1 now. If something is due Q1 I think we would have had hint of it, to get the SP moving in anticipation.

As before, suits me. 3.xp on April 6th works well for my personal circumstances. After that, handbrakes off please...

I wonder if we might also get an update on what is going on on the ground at Araguaia. Pedro Rodriguez was appointed 2nd Oct. If we assume H1 finance complete mine build commences 1st July - he will have been at Horizonte 4 of 9 months to start of construction from appointment. Appreciate the early time is probably spent putting things in place to make progress but the drawdown of the Orion funds in Oct/Nov means maybe some of the money is now being spent on the preparatory work. Hopefully we get an update on that.

CFO buying 10 Dec suggests at least at that point in time nothing too sensitive but things might of course have moved on. Personally less bothered about director buying (or not) more interested in news on financing. I understand the need to keep cards close to their chest (presumably for many reasons - regulatory, NDA, sensitive to negotiations etc) but nobody can be surprised if the company doesn't re-rate by itself on little news.

Essentially the situation is at the moment we are valued as we are valued based on the assets themselves. Market ascribes them £30m (ex cash). This is too low (imho), but the market is the market, it is waiting for concrete (or at least, strong indications) on financing before it moves us on.

The call tomorrow I suspect will be a 'hang in there it is coming' type message. Question is how specific can they be on what is coming and when. And does the market react, we will see...

The shares aren't flying off the shelves in anticipation of tomorrow at the moment! My feeling is unless we get an RNS (seems unlikely at this stage?) the best we can hope from the update:

- firm indications that financing is going well (maybe some nuggets on whether debt is near complete, major holders are being consulted on equity etc)
- maybe slightly tighter definition of timelines. If the timelines were more tightly defined (say - expect debt complete and announced in early March) it might move the SP in anticipation

If the intention is to really get the mcap to £100m and the call tomorrow is the first step it might have to give some firm hints of what is going on (both the amount of progress to date and the timescales to complete), I think, to get the ball rolling. At the moment 5 months to complete end H1 appears too long a timeframe for the market to re-rate us all by itself.

not worth a million yet but at 6.1p that changes. Think we will see 6.1p this year, personally.

definitely added. To the 'b' pot (somewhat anonymised here (thats me)). Of course I could be making it up but what's the point? Firmly believe in this share.

b 2941685
j 2120759
l isa (l) 818133.5
l isa (b) 818133.5
j isa 1478293
b isa 2417380
j sipp 2235492
b sipp 3564972
total 16394848

Fair point Wolfie and in the wider context, understood. I am somewhat tunnel visioned at the moment as my eggs are firmly in the Horizonte basket. Incidentally I think the £100m mcap is a key target in case we can attract further interest past that point. Not much sign yet that we're getting there anytime soon but things will surely get pretty exciting when we do - we should then register on a lot more investment portfolios and funds might move for shares. Seems to be a chicken and egg how we get there though, maybe not until firm funding news.

incidentally not saying funding isn't hard for companies across AIM or that that isn't a problem for investors investing in multiple AIM cos. Just that Horizonte will not have that problem, Orion being the key difference right now. Orion all but de-risks this stock. All IMHO.

Wolfie - all true, but private equity sharpens its fangs at such prospects. The beauty of Horizonte is not 'if' private equity is interested (as we already have some onboard!) but how much. I don't understand how they calculate the equivalent SP that Orion bought in at (10p) but assuming there is more to come, perhaps even on better terms, then it isn't necessarily funds we are looking to get us where we want to go.

There is also shedloads of investment which is desperate to cycle out of fossil fuels which needs to find a home. We are talking proper proper money. Norways sovereign wealth fund - $1tn value - announced in June it is selling down its $10bn investments in coal. What will it buy instead? It could fund Araguaia + Vermelho builds and have $9bn left over. That is just one such fund (albeit, the largest!)

So I think the traditional markets for finance might be tough but there is plenty of money which will want a slice of the action. I think finance for Araguaia is nailed on for this year. All IMHO.