Member Info for wasarunner

My feeling is the next funding news we get will be substantial - it might cover a good % of the cost of building Araguaia phase 1. Just looking at the timescales - at end of Jan, Endevour have been on the case 15 months since appointment. 5 months since Orion funding news. I think the strategy appears to be to get as much done behind closed doors as possible before announcing to market. I am basing this on the elapsed time (relatively long) vs amount of finance news released (relatively little).

We may get some indicative news in the quarterly update, we may not, on financing progress but the more I think about it the more I think the next concrete RNS announcing terms will be a big one. I think it is unlikely we will see a small piece of the funding jigsaw next, like a small offtake, I think we will see a large piece. All IMHO. It is a time to be in and holding tight in any case.

another 134k shares this morning adding when and where I can. £30m mcap ex cash vs $2.5bn NPV (at around current Nickel prices) will correct in due course. Cheap as chips...

Traded in our Range Rover Evoque on weekend for a different version. This vehicle is for work, and hopefully last non elec or hybrid car I will ever buy. Interesting at the Jag/Range Rover showroom lots of customers discussing and looking at the hybrid/EV and I don't think Jag is at all a leader in this field. And this is the UK, we're not exactly leading the field either.

It is coming ladies and gents, timescales hard to pin down but the landscape will be very different in 5-10 yrs.The timing with Horizonte to bring the mines online is better than sweet. Even a year delay in financing / mine build now for either or both mines is a tolerable delay and if it means we get the best terms so be it. We are on a winner, market doesn't recognise it yet, which is an added bonus as it allows maybe one more decent opportunity to max out future profits here.

an ounce of palladium (if I had one) I could sell and buy ~50000 EUA shares at 4p. I would be buying 1/50000th of the company. The company has proven reserves of 2m ounces of palladium. I would therefore be buying 40 ounces of palladium (in the ground). Sounds like a good deal to me! 40 for the price of 1 etc.....

Palladium is the new Rhodium

originally bought to see if I can leverage HZM position on an asset sale here, but the more I read the more I like it as an investment in its own right so not fussed which way it goes - asset sale or develop it's own asset. With PGMs flying hopefully investors make money either way, and plenty of it...

I bought in dec high 2s. Mostly I am in HZM but nickel not doing much so a smallish side-bet on EUA. PGMs are going nuts! Hoping this plays out in next weeks/months...

$2500 is the key level for palladium. Only because if we've got 40m ounces of it, we're a $100bn resource company. IMHO (have a small-ish stake here)

excellent - he delivered his last project $500m under budget. Lets hope he can do the same here!

I hope the mine director has reduced estimated cost to $250m through optimisation, and Horizonte have secured the facility for the same and announce at 3pm today. I'll drink to that...

Can't read the article but the other thing I am aware from research I've done is that the Nickel Sulfides which are found deeper in the earth, hence more expensive to extract, but readily ameanable to EV are going to be unable to supply the coming demand. These are typically found in places like Australia.

That bodes well for laterite deposites like Vermelho as laterites through HPAL will have to provide the balance, and the key is of course to be lowest quartile on production cost.

From the latest presentations it appears that Horizonte will target the intermediary (nickel+cobalt with ~60% purity?) materials for production at Vermelho to allow final processing into batteries at specialist facilities. The expectation is that there will be a growth in facilities processing such intermediate output into batteries in places like China. I guess the question then is where will the output from Vermelho ship to, which has been asked before. It is still quite a young industry as such and I expect will evolve quite a bit, and Vermelho can hopefully be tuned to output what the market wants as product.

I've said it before but it is worth repeating - Vermelho is probably the reason a third party will buy into, or buy Horizonte. The product won't be competing with NPI or cheaper forms of Nickel. The product is expected to be in high demand, with long lead times to build mines and processing (HPAL). Therefore should be a strong pricing in the next couple of decades of EV boom at least.

This works really well for existing shareholders:
- if you want to realise your investment quickly, a buyer might come for the lot, or, Horizonte might sell Vermelho (only) when the price is right and
- if not the above, it shouldn't be hard to secure a JV partner because the numbers are compelling. So if you want to benefit from ongoing revenue from the mining operation, I don't see Vermelho not getting the partner as a likely outcome. $10bn FCF over LOM is just going to get third parties to the table PDQ (imho).

Either way Vermelho will get interest, and in the meantime we are in a strong position if we get finance to develop Araguaia and the company can bide its time for the right deal on the former.

extending further, anyone with £50k investment at my average (around 3.3p at the minute) would see Vermelho return £1m. over 20 years. Not a bad return. Sure the cash will depreciate somewhat but there is the opportunity to invest the proceeds of course...

extending the calc - round down to 10p/yr/share from Vermelho FCF. Assume JV takes half 5p/yr. Assume 3p distributed - all seem reasonable numbers so far. On my holding it's just shy of £0.5m/yr or £10m over 20 years. Have I missed something? Does FCF have to cover any other costs (I've assumed free cash means pretty much post tax and opex?)

That's just Vermelho. But we also have Araguaia...

Vermelho FCF over LOM is around £5 per share are currently issued capital at $20k/t nickel. Just saying! At 3.5p we are 'somewhat' undervalued on this basis. Doubt I'll see full LOM but will happily take a couple of decades of that spare cash (the bit attributable to me in any case)....

Yeah I just noticed that. I dont know if HL deal with institutional clients but if not, it looks like a nearly 50/50 split between II and PI on the significant holders register. Of course expect that picture to change somewhat as we go through financing but it is good to have such institutional support and it also looks like the City Financial and RG selldown was bought by PI's?

nice to be above JP Morgan in any case. 'big boys' indeed....

thanks guys anyone else with Interactive Investor? I see we make at no. 4 on the list! We should ask for a seat on the board and see where they have got to with the financing...

Added a tranche this morning, last of my money till April or unless EUA plays out. Just under 300k shares added. Still a bargain IMHO under 4p but big spread at the moment low liquidity.... pre-emptive buy for me in case this moves north before April, as I will be selling these to move into ISA. Would rather buy at 3.7p than whatever we will be at in April post any news...

Westie think positive. 30 years from start of production you will have your 30 bags. How old is the queen? The great thing abou horizonte I think in the next couple of years is people will get their choice, take the win, or wait a few more years for win win. I cant personally see a loss here (imho) so I am with ng, its how big a win and in what timeframe and everyone has their time and price and fair play to them....