Member Info for wasarunner

to the promised land of 12.75p and beyond

couple of nice trades at 10.46.
an anyone see much going on on L2?

jd - that was my strategy until I realised I think it will move earlier. This must be the low - RG selling, virus scare, nickel down. Don't see sub 4p come April.

So bought this morning so bed&ISA it is in April. Rather the shares at 3.5p than 5p. Of course, can only do that if the funds are available which is always the big challenge. Really think we are at the low now, 2020 is onwards and upwards from here.

The other thing which worries me (and hence the buy this morning) is at the moment we aren't seeing the traders piling in. We are possibly seeing accumulation by patient investors against the RG selling. On news we will have every man and his dog here for their 10-20% gains (nothing against that at all btw, but it will happen). This will exacerbate the rise for those patiently waiting to sink another ISA allowance in. All imho

craigieboy - I stopped adding to the SIPPs when I realised the tax benefit limits on pensions! It was never an issue in the past but it may just get so with Horizonte.... So trying to stuff the ISAs now for what they are worth, or I'm going to take the CGT hit one day.

I see value drivers in the next 3 years as follows, and hence my SP targets

2020 - finance complete Araguaia phase one - 10p
2021 - vermelho partner confirmed (could happen earlier)
2022 - araguaia starts production - 25p
2025 - araguaia phase 1 + vermelho phase 1 producing, phase 2 of each under construction - 30p+

I'm working on shares in issue ~2.5bn as follows:

todays issued capital 1.4bn + options 10% + dilution 50% = ~2.5bn shares

I'm working on owning 1.5 mines with some royalties. Half of Vermelho given away for farm in JV

On the above assumptions, I don't need a very high nickel price to make a lot of money on the holdings. The upside comes from high nickel prices, it is a beautifully leveraged play against nickel shortages 2025.

This is just my workings, it may play out very differently. But would be much more than happy with the above.

I think one thing to be mindful of when considering asset/sale values is - how many EUAs are there which bigco can buy. I'm not an expert here by any means and I'm late tot he game but - are there many companies sitting on 2m-40m ounces of Pd in the ground? If the answer is 'not many' or 'very few' or 'one' we shouldn't ignore the premium a buyer will pay for that.

So it is one thing comparing other valuations sales and % discounts for resource in the ground et al, but I believe there are for example many gold companies a big buyer could buy with resource, how many palladium companies?

There has got to be a good chance here, that if this is a 'unique opportunity' for the buyer, they will pay premium for resource uncertainty on flanks and we get a good deal. If sale goes through. All imho.

actually if you've been in 6 years you've seen some unexpected turns I imagine. Buying Vermelho for $8m - stunning business. And some real share price lows. The patience required - chapeau. I'll be in 2 years in April. Started with a speculative purchase of £1.5k - 35000 shares at around 3.95p and built it up from there.

craigieboy is that 28m shares? If so, that's the number JM has on option ( I believe). You and he are aligned :) I'm getting there but alas out of reach for me!

ok I lied orders filled at 3.37p and 3.5p respectively not quite the 3.33p bargain.

the fact I can move it alone with £20k speaks volumes. Come on chapslend a hand here :) Then again, happy to keep it low until further funds allow!

£20k brought forward from April pot:
- RG leaving, my estimation is complete by end of Feb possibly earlier
- nickel turning
- virus still around but world is not going to end. Short term there might even be Ni supply problems
- finally, because it is a BLOODY BARGAIN at 3.3p!

I don't have much more but will keep trying to add before April. If EUA plays out I have an outside chance of building 20m share holding here. My goals are:

2020 - 10p
2022 - 25p
2025 - 30p-£1 + 3p-5p dividend a year

I don't really understand why peeps aren't piling in in large numbers right now. Now is the time to buy. This is sitting at around 1.5p sp ex cash. When we move, we will move fast. Co is waiting for RG exit before news (imho). News will be released in pieces to pique interest heading into Q2. We already know banks are at the table, Orion are in, this is risk off play.

I will be trying to move before the traders do. Funds permitting. All IMHO.

The broker recommendation is here. It ascribes 12.75p including flanks:

http://www.eurasiamining.co.uk/investors/presentations/download?path=First%2BEquity%2BMorning%2BComment%2B4%2BDECEMBER%2B2019%2B-%2BEUA%2BTP%2B12.75p.pdf

The smart money is that we get more once flanks are licenced. That's why we have IIs taking positions at 5p. Each can ascribe / extraspolate their own numbers for flanks. I'll be happy with half of the ACF number but lets see. PGMs still rising as we speak. Sale price goes up every day. All IMHO

04-Feb-20 08:19:57 5.065 1,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 50.65k O
04-Feb-20 09:29:44 5.125 1,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 51.25k O
04-Feb-20 08:06:11 4.85 1,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 48.50k O
04-Feb-20 15:14:11 5.72 1,315,789 Buy* 5.30 5.40 75.26k O
04-Feb-20 11:18:36 5.30 1,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 53.00k O
04-Feb-20 08:15:41 5.026 1,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 50.26k O
04-Feb-20 08:01:47 4.80 1,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 48.00k O
04-Feb-20 08:21:09 5.106 1,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 51.06k O
04-Feb-20 08:13:38 5.10 1,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 51.00k O
04-Feb-20 10:59:18 5.1502 5,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 257.51k O
04-Feb-20 08:15:13 5.06 1,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 50.60k O
04-Feb-20 11:16:57 5.39 1,000,000 Buy* 5.30 5.40 53.90k O
04-Feb-20 08:17:40 5.02 1,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 50.20k O
04-Feb-20 08:12:18 5.066 1,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 50.66k O
04-Feb-20 08:56:27 5.14 1,069,903 Sell* 5.30 5.40 54.99k O
04-Feb-20 14:10:36 5.52 1,000,000 Buy* 5.30 5.40 55.20k O
04-Feb-20 14:09:30 5.56 1,000,000 Buy* 5.30 5.40 55.60k

The buys above are not being sold yet this morning. Can't see sells in these quantities on the trades being executed.

PIs selling, IIs buying. IIs aren't trading this for 10% or 20%. Pattern will repeat today. MMs very happy to oblige :-)

all buys, of course...

04-Feb-20 08:19:57 5.065 1,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 50.65k O
04-Feb-20 09:29:44 5.125 1,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 51.25k O
04-Feb-20 08:06:11 4.85 1,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 48.50k O
04-Feb-20 15:14:11 5.72 1,315,789 Buy* 5.30 5.40 75.26k O
04-Feb-20 11:18:36 5.30 1,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 53.00k O
04-Feb-20 08:15:41 5.026 1,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 50.26k O
04-Feb-20 08:01:47 4.80 1,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 48.00k O
04-Feb-20 08:21:09 5.106 1,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 51.06k O
04-Feb-20 08:13:38 5.10 1,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 51.00k O
04-Feb-20 10:59:18 5.1502 5,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 257.51k O
04-Feb-20 08:15:13 5.06 1,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 50.60k O
04-Feb-20 11:16:57 5.39 1,000,000 Buy* 5.30 5.40 53.90k O
04-Feb-20 08:17:40 5.02 1,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 50.20k O
04-Feb-20 08:12:18 5.066 1,000,000 Sell* 5.30 5.40 50.66k O
04-Feb-20 08:56:27 5.14 1,069,903 Sell* 5.30 5.40 54.99k O
04-Feb-20 14:10:36 5.52 1,000,000 Buy* 5.30 5.40 55.20k O
04-Feb-20 14:09:30 5.56 1,000,000 Buy* 5.30 5.40 55.60k

is all you need to look at...

>>A bit of profit taking today....

I see it as MMs happy to relocate shares from the impatient to the patient. IIs accumulating...

>>Yes up over 50% in two days I wouldn't be surprised if there was a bit or a retrace.

That might be true if there were only PIs in the game, and they were taking profit. I think most of the buying now is smart money and so the pressure will be sustained. Of course, the MMs will do their best to keep the market level and 'allow' PIs to offload and allow IIs to soak them up but if people don't sell, and IIs want the shares, this will go up. and up. and up

21m shares declared in 1m+ chunks after hours. I make that >£1m. Probably all buys, that excludes the 250k / 300k tranches which were popping up all day.

That appears to me to be II position building, they can't buy in one go, they can't get their fill in one day, they will just keep buying here now but from what - who will be selling (in these quantities).

Any dips will be bought by PIs but I think the underlying pressure will come from the smart money soaking up the sells. All imho (I don't have L2 but will be interesting how this plays today).

the round number buys, declared an hour late

300k purchases
250k purchases

regular as clockwork. Why? Who could possibly be taking the position :-)

300k shares costs a lot more today than it cost a couple of days ago. And hopefully will cost a lot more by end of week. But I bet we see the round number trades coming in now over coming days. :-)

penny a day, it's not a bad rate though. In a couple of months we will be fair value - and it will be russian mining season - and deal will be done (possible?) all IMHO!

Best sign for me since I've been invested were the big buys in the relatively quiet times, closed / declared after hours. Those outsized trades where you just don't think it is PIs making the buy.

They say follow the smart money. For my money, there is already a lot of smart money positioned here, and still some to come as people take profit. I'd simply love to know who is selling now and who is buying. The people buying are pretty wealthy and going to get more that way when it plays out.

So watching the trading pattern over the last couple of months has been interesting, it looks nailed on to me. If it wasn't, we would have fallen fast and hard after the initial 10x gain (during which I wasn't here BTW!) This has legs because the smart money knows it is a done deal. All imho.