Member Info for wasarunner

ManFromUruguay I contemplated putting more in at the time (it looked good on paper) but my research was shaky at best! I was going on instinct and back-reading to try and figure it out. This was the stake I was happy with the risk reward. Hindsight is wonderful because of course you wish you put the kitchen sink on in this scenario!

Huge respect for people holding from the lower levels and watching this develop. I hope the best outcome for all!

happy days guys the signs were there. The best sign was the huge late declared buys. Timing is as ever hard to predict, but trading it was risky (for anyone wanting the endgame). Well done those with patience! I've never been in this situation and holding is modest (600k shares) but very exciting nonetheless!

Hi monrnington-oz it's from the ACF research note I don't have the link.

Prior to that we had something like 12.75p broker rating in December. I thought the 'official' broker rating might cap the price but the ACF report has of course blown that out of the water.

To me a little bit the share is stuck in no mans land it doesn't know where to go. It has risen much and fast, and on paper has much more still to go, so at times like this it struggles to find an equilibrium of buyers and sellers. If there is institutional buying though that should lend a lot of support as we run into news.

I have no agenda either way here I hope the share succeeds. When I bought in November and December it was meant to be a near term play to try and leverage another investment I hold a lot (some might say huge amount of) Horizonte. But as this has continued and I did more research I've kind of gone with it and now hoping for the endgame, like probably everyone here who was invested a lot longer!

B1ll I sold my curry stake this morning! 16k shares I took £131 profit which made my dinner last Friday free. I stated the trade (it was from Vodafone's dividend on Friday) on Friday.

My main holding circa 600k shares remains intact. I bought a couple of tranches November and December and have watched it playing out since. Average around 3.85p I think.

Apologies if I confused (I often confused myself), hopefully explained myself.

I'm very positive about the share, and trying to make sense of the price action. Which lets face it was pretty fast and furious last week!

look I'm a numbers guy.

12p with 2.5bn shares is £300m mcap.
I think the research note put 60p out there, which is then a £1.5bn sale value. I didn't read it closely enough to see if that was attributable value, I think EUA owns 80% of MT?

So I'm trying to figure out what people actually believe the sale value might look like (I understand some think maybe more than £1.5bn) and without further news, what price the SP might settle at. I would like to wait this one out, at least until mining season, to see which way it goes. It isn't significant to me if it settles at 7.xp or 12p (or higher) for now because I intend to wait for any sale anyway.

We've closed 7.x, 6.x, lets say we close 7.x today. I'm trying to rationalise why we *might* and I hasten to say might, stay at this level this week, if nobody confirms the news from the weekend i.e. no company RNS.

Not to say it can't go higher (and I'll be happy if it does!). I'm personally interested in all those very large trades that get declared at end of day because they usually give a good indication that there is institutional buying - if that continues then the big money still wants in at £200mcap which is all good from me!

ON the way up, I thought maybe the price would cap out at 8p-12p as this was the range where the previous broker forecast (without significant flanks upside) saw near term fair value. We're kind of nearly there but not quite.

Of course, another handbrake is the fact we've come from 0.5p-8p in relatively short order. There just has to be profit taking on that kind of rise. I wasn't in at 0.5p so it isn't so tempting for me to take profit at this level but if you've been there from 0.5p surely there is some temptation now.

Hi Lucretius,

it wasn't meant as a deramp. I think the share is caught between a potentially very large upside, and lack of news. Add to that we have a near term expectation of news - company has been quiet for a while and with the mining season soon(ish), people expect this to go one way or another.

I was trying to rationalise (it helps me to post to get my thoughts straight) why we might be stuck at 8p and not 18p. If people believe £1bn is a potential sale value, but aren't sure, maybe this is as much risk as they will put on.

What I always think is the big money knows what's coming and buys. That's supported the price last week I think. Lots of PI probably bailing and II buying in. I stayed put throughout but I don't have a large holding here (something like 600k shares) - well at least it's small in my portfolio.

I'm happy to let it run, just trying to make sense of the price.

So we seem to be stuck a tad south of £200m mcap. I would argue this is a reasonable risk/return at the moment based on the released news. People are hoping for a £1bn+ sale (I'll take that all day long) but still insufficient robust news that that's in the bag to move us higher. Around 20% of the expected value then seems not unreasonable. Smart money is still probably loading.

Of course we all believe it is worth more (and that's why we are still invested and not selling) but I would argue for the current news the sp we are holding seems reasonable. That's not to say the near term expectation of news (flanks or offer) shouldn't tip people's risk barometer to a higher level here but it is just how I see it presently.

We might make one more move to the 8-12p range giving us closer to £250m, maybe on an expectation of £1bn-£1.5bn sale. But after that I think we need news.

What will help is Russian mining season around the corner. Most will be expecting big news to drop in the next 6-8 weeks latest, I think.

What do people think? Round number sells - 100k, 250k etc. shares. Still selling, for my money. Not too unhappy with that as long as he is still doing it when I next want to buy.

>>All pig in the sky until finance

Very true - anyone investing now is gambling on three outcomes:
- no finance
- unfavourable terms finance
- favourable terms finance

The reason I believe the latter, and hence am prepared to take the punt, so to speak are:
- IIs onboard and even more significantly
- Orion took a stake at very favourable terms

But of course there is uncertainty. It is a balance of probabilities thing and how much risk you are prepared to carry for what outcome.

also they are buying 3.5bn tons of nickel. In a solid market that's $70bn gross ($20k/t). I'm not sure what discount miners sell for but 1% of in the ground value (which is around £500m) seems cheap.

agreed the buyer has to see upside - but (again just in my opinion) they get lots of upside at £500m-£1bn. They just aren't going to find many other Tier 1 undeveloped Nickel assets at 2-3 years from production. They just don't exist. If they exist they have been bought already or are already in big miners hands. So we have a valuable resource which a buyer has to pay premium for (even allowing for upside). Orion paid the equivalent of £3.5bn (multiplied up) total Araguaia+Vermelho sale for their 2.25% of production from Phase 1 of Araguaia. So £500m-£1bn is conservative, imho.

I would rather they went to production because over 20 years there will be a much bigger return, but I'll take 30p+ if it comes soon as of course there is the opportunity to find the next investment.

If Horizonte go on to build and run the mines I'm hoping for £1/share over 20 years total return (dividend + capital). That could be 35p shares + 65p total divis or whatever combination. It feels possible to me, even with dilution.

duserinmong - couple of thoughts - yes it is hard to predict future share price. But, for e.g. FCF on Vermelho I calculated at £5/share in a strong nickel market over LOM at todays issued capital. What percentage lands in current shareholders laps? Hopefully more than 25p worth, if you can wait 40+ years. But to each their time horizon (I won't benefit for 40 years,, probably, unless they get the mine built next week).

Best insurance we have against the board not having sufficient skin in the game is the list of II's including miners on board at higher averages - for example I think Teck/Glencore over 10p already. They're not going to agree to massive dilution.

At the end of the day if the board can't get it financed without massive dilution (this is very unlikely to be the case imho) it is worth £500m-£1bn easily in an asset sale. That's 30-50p for starters. That's based on $10bn fcf from Vermelho alone and something like $4bn from Araguaia, based on some assumed future nickel prices.

So your risk really is we don't build it, somebody else does, and we might get 30p for our shares. Which if you are buying at 3.5p is probably a number most would be happy with! But we find out in a few months time.

FWIW I have thrown the kitchen sink in, for better or for worse...

just to caveat - capex/tax and any JV isn't included in that. But otherwise possible.

My understanding (I've not held shares in a producing mining company) is that they trade on relatively low P/E. So if there is EPS 15p unlike a tech co you might be looking at 50p-£1 shareprice and not higher, on the assumption that the commodity prices can fluctuate so profits aren't guaranteed.

But at that point the fact that we are lowest quartile on cost kicks in. Lowest quartile means we will be pumping dividend when other mines are underwater, metaphorically speaking. All to play for!

basically today you can buy 1m shares for £35k. The way I see it you are buying an income of £150k in 5 years time for £35k. Or in my case and the case of others here, a multiple of those numbers. Happy days are coming.

I must confess I'm pretty excited by reaching double figure shareprice this year (or next). I think it will happen. Lets call it 16p. Most here are making good money at that point. But consider this:

$10k/t profit on 50kt production a year is $500m profit
call it 2.5bn shares in issue post dilution is 20c EPS (usd)
convert to real money 15p

that's the dividend Horizonte could pay per year. 4-5x todays shareprice

of course at that point the SP will be 50p-£1

And $10k/t profit is very achievable per long range. Ok there will be capex to pay back and tax but even on a million share holding, that will be £150k/year. That's what we're in for, maybe the top end, but those are the numbers to mull over.