Member Info for wasarunner

If I've got the events in good chronological order:

1. PGMs appreciate by significant % (2019)
2. Company announces intention to market assets, appoints banks (Oct 2019)
3. Shareprice does a 10 bag
4. Kind of radio silence by company other than to confirm licence and refers back to all the earlier RNS
5. Appoint a few more key senior industry figures
6. research note reckons sale worth 60p
7. IIs spend a week doing serious loading. Massive transactions go through. SP does another bag
8. Company suspends

Unless I'm really really missing something, the news can only be good. IMHO.

they can't announce yet because the price keeps changing. 80p/share? No hang on, NN have offered 85p. and so on and so forth. Once the final number is in they can hopefully RNS it. Maybe the lady people have spoken to just doesn't know the final number yet...

yes the one's I don't get are people doubting whether you are invested. Yeah like out of all the possible things in the world one could do with one's time, following/reading/contributing to a board of a share one has no intention of holding is one of them. But each to their own I suppose. I've learnt very valuable nuggest here (and elsewhere) which is why I follow. I only offer opinion and don't claim expertise. I present my views and they are based only on what I've read and digested, there is no other motive for me.

all look like buys to me. all look like they knew what was coming. Buying up and into the close.

>>I need to know ASAP so I know whether its prosecco or champagne I need to buy tonight

Buy both. FWIW I was in the process of deciding what news gets me down to Waitrose for a bottle (or two) of the same. Hope the news lands before school runs and things clog up the town.

Sorry to all for clogging up the board with O/T but at the end of the day while we wait for the shareprice to move significantly out of the 3.45-3.5p range hopefully a bit of banter causes no offence. Personally very happy that nothing is moving too fast here, when the time comes it will, and it is not like everyone can't say they didn't have the chance to get in. At least 3 serious runner types recommended this share so what can possibly go wrong here :)

>>The long game I see as 3-5x those numbers (15p-20p...)

I mean, in 2025+ I see 3-5x 15-20p possible. So the 50p-£1 range for SP at full production. All subject to how the financing on both mines plays out of course. The earlier exit range might look like 2022-2023 for 20p+. All IMHO.

>>I won’t even consider slicing till 14P

djr, I've thought long and hard, my own personal circumstances again. I'm looking to hang on to every share till production (Araguaia phase 1). By then we should have some significant news on Vermelho. Then and only then would I consider selling a share. I'm also looking for an absolute minimum of 5x my average till I sell a share, so in my case I am realistically holding for 20p.

The long game I see as 3-5x those numbers (15p-20p) as being possible. So for anyone who can afford time/circumstances to wait the 'really long' game (5yrs+) there is every reason to hold really long.

I also guess some will be investing for the first time or adding at 10p+. I think that is still very investable. My investment at EUA has played out that way, I wasn't in from the early days (HZM equivalent of 3p or 1.7p levels) but my post news investment is doing very well (well it was until we suspended today)... So there is an opportunity for further de-risked investing here but it will come at a premium - my thinking is 10p+ once financing fully in the bag.

People are concerned with capex and financing, to some extent understandable - it is the first money the company has to raise to kickstart life as a proper miner. But consider this: at $16.4k/t production payback is 3 years. And of course that includes equity which won't need to be paid back. And nickel could easily be well higher in 3+years time. In 'boomtime' markets, Horizonte is paying off each stage of mine construction in < 2years per phase. And over 28 years / 40 years Vermelho, the upside is phenomenal.

It's a bit like when I bought the last house I bought some 15 years ago. I had an option for the £200k or the £250k option. I went for the cheaper one. It would be worth a decent sum now. The £250k one I wouldn't be able to afford now. These capex figures will be a vanishing number in years to come. And the financing houses (Orion, banks, Teck, Glencore etc.) know it, which is finance is a given. Araguaia not getting financed this year is just not going to happen.

lowball offer in my book = £500m after considering 80% ownership might be 20p on 2.5bn shares. If co keeps half then we get 10p divi. Don't shoot me down guys this is just me thinking aloud - what's the least outcome here. Much better things are possible and clearly hoped for (by me as much as everyone else here)!

worst case outcome I can see is lowball offer for MT, gets sold, co keeps half of sale to develop other assets, half distributed in dividend.

best case outcome I can see is some kind of full/premium valuation scenario for the enhanced palladium play (some kind of valuation based on the 15/40m oz scenario)

Each to their own circumstances but better for me is total company sale as I would reroute the proceeds, rapidly, to my favourite share if this completes soon enough. A not-so-bad scenario is future divis from West Kytlm and I would certainly retain my holding here if that's how it plays.

I don't see 'no deal' (no pun intended) as a likely outcome at all here.

never, the HZM holding is sacrosanct! I'd rather go hungry than sell a share...

think how hard it must be to get any work done today if you owned 20% of the company.
Hang on a minute - that's Dmitry and hopefully he is hard at work today :-) Could be his big payday!

who is not getting any work done today :-) hard to sit on the dayjob, I'm finding. They better announce today or I may be unemployed by tomorrow - then again, I may not care if the news today is good :-)

I've thought hard about the other possibilities, read a lot of stuff here and I can't see any other reason to suspend than a bid.

- flanks approval - you wouldn't suspend - why - we didn't suspend when the central govt approved
- share price rise - yes, but not that dramatic it has less than doubled in a week and a half, hardly merits suspension
- director selling - yeah right, pull the other one.
- placing - again, pull the other one.
- tweet - maybe but only because and if the news is real (otherwise it is easy to rebutt).

Can't see any other reason to suspend personally but again, no expert. Whether we get a concrete bid with a concrete price published who knows but I very much expect an RNS stating who, and via which channel, has approached and for which asset. All imho.

My take on the flanks is they can contract for a payment if flanks is approved so no problem.
Or - flanks approval they might know is coming and can hold the final signing until it lands.

Personally don't see flanks as a problem here, for the deal. I'd be surprised if they had suspended just for flanks news though. It had the potential to move us up a bit but I wouldn't say it would have needed suspension. Has to be an offer imho.

dealer55 - I agree for the news of what the offer is. I meant sealing the deal. Unless all the DD and paperwork is already done, and the RNS is a rubber stamp contract signed (maybe this can happen? and it completes quick?) I assume some actual elapsed time to finalise terms.

That said I assume the RNS announcing why it is suspended should land quickly. Today would be a good day.

EthioEthio my take and again not an expert:

It can probably take ages to seal a big financial deal of this type. But (for those wanting pie quickly) I would say the massive massive advantage we have, and it is also why I had high hopes of a result here by April, is the mining season. Palladium is high now. The buyer wants to get building a mine. They can't do diddly until they've signed terms. They can't put machines on site, build plant, whatever. I assume they want to do this, and this is why we are suspended. If I'm right they'll want deal complete as close to start of mining season as possible (or as soon after as possible).

So my guess is deal will be complete in a few months or earlier. But as I said, not an expert. It's the mining season that is going to push this along. Someone wants all that Pd out of the ground this year preferably for the £2.5k/ounce.

not been in this situation but assume an offer.

Don't know how it works - they might announce who, and the price? Will it happen today, could it take longer? Be disappointing if the first offer is less than 30p but WTFDIK. I'm very much hoping for the 30p-60p range if whole co is sold.

around 600k shares.

Wish I hadn't sold my curry stake yesterday (16k shares) :-). It made me a nice dinner but could have returned more in time of course!