Member Info for wasarunner

Luke would you sell post finance pre production? I'm just curious because undoubtedly the SP would be a lot higher than today at that point - lets say 6-12 months time - but a lot less than the eventual production SP and potential dividend down the line.

I guess there will always be a tranche of investors who would sell at that interim point who don't want to see the 2yr mine build then 1-3 year ramp up to dividend flow. Who would be happy to take the interim profit - I don't know what it would look like but my price range target around 10-15p at the point where building the mine commences. Not a shabby profit for people who want to sell if that happens but the bigger rewards are surely down the line then.

Still of course 50/50 whether it gets taken out. Probably more chance it gets taken out I would say if there is a dramatic jump in nickel demand/price in the next 1-3 years. Something ahead of what the median forecast is saying. In that scenario majors might want to get to a higher production faster and buying Horizonte might be a way to achieve it.

One thing for sure, one day this will surge by more than 8.8% as at presently. Like the Orion day. I'm feeling reasonably smug about the recent 3.10-3.15 entries, still very good value at present if anybody has spare to invest - I don't unfortunately at the moment. Onwards and upwards.

(re)confirmation of financing timescales and hints/update on progress, coupled with slightly stronger nickel say $15-16k/t would be sufficient I think to get us back to 4p.

Suspect we need concrete financing news (confirmed deals/numbers) now to move much above that, unless Nickel rockets.

Question is which of the above will we get first. Could be either. Either way I feel 3p looks like a floor so would seem pretty safe buying at current levels for new participants.

Murmourings of trade deal us-china? Would be positive for commodities generally I think and that could be catalyst horizonte need at this stage.

Indeed SGD27 - my Brazil geography stands corrected! Must learn to use google maps a bit better. Looks good then. Come on if they can invest $1bn in a port lets see some billions going into mining....

Thanks Luke2 - different end of the country that port but I like this: "China ........... is also Brazil's largest trading partner overall."

In a perfect world we (HZM shareholders) would see a big fight between China trying to corner the EV production market and therefore tying down all raw materials supplies, and the west trying to ensure non Chinese dependence on the same. That would result in a scrap for resources on neutral grounds where the governments don't particularly take one side or another. Not too many of these I think, Brazil, Australia etc maybe a few others.

We've seen the Indo situation affect the Nickel price both ways - flooding the market with cheap NPI over the years depressed prices while the threat/blanket ban on ore exports and then moving the date boundaries on these must give consumers of the nickel a real headache.

Imagine if you could source high quality nickel / ferronickel from a reliable jurisdiction in a much more stable environment? I would imagine that nickel consumers like big EV cos would prefer to do business with the likes of Horizonte/Brazil than rely on countries where the government can turn off the taps on a whim, when negotiating offtake or ongoing relationship? This might even apply to Chinese cos - for many the Indo situation must be a real problem though of course it is closer for shipping - I wonder if they could come for some Horizonte output?

$50k/t would yield about $2bn gross profit A YEAR(vermelho + araguaia) at full production unless my maths is wonky. I would expect to see the shareprice / mcap well north of presently at that stage.

On an aside wonder if we will get a 'holding' RNS in the next couple of weeks. Something along the lines of 'we are still talking to our syndicate of banks and discussions are going well'. There can't be anything too sensitive agreed or happening otherwise the Director buy couldn't have happened I think (like - they can't be close to sealing a JV).

if some of us keep buying we might get into the significant shareholders section. I'm eyeing that HSDL slot as a first target... :)

Nickel is rocking - I wondered if as we approach Indo ban the ore has been flooding out ahead of the ban and hence maybe pushing the price down. But once we approach the ban (assuming it is going ahead) it starts firming up. We're not far now. I'd be pretty comfortable if we go into NY above $14k/t - it's a lot higher than we were at the start of 2019!

I was wondering today. Would Horizonte delay either sealing deals or announcing deals to market until there is a positive nickel environment. So lets say they have shaken hands on an agreement but maybe not signed on dotted. Defer an announcement (can they do this or must they announce it?) until nickel price is higher. Why? Because if the intended impact is to get the SP up, to get further pieces of the jigsaw together, it is much better to announce in a more positive environment. When they made the Orion announcement nickel was > $17.5k/t and it went down really well - good impact on the SP.

I don't have a crystal ball so i don't really know exactly where Nickel price is heading next year except that long term we have structural deficit which can't easily be met by new supply. I am just wondering if newsflow on financing will now stall until it is more favourable. Perhaps pushing final financing dates back somewhat? It doesn't concern me overly as I'm here for a longer term but wondering on the above.

Sorry again from the Mark Selby interview - says to be investable you want to be attractive to major players. His measure of what constitutes a scalable project is to be around 1% of global production to be of interest - 2.4m annual tonnes of nickel I make that around 24kt/yr.

My guess is it is not coincidence then that Araguaia and Vermelho (and the third resource) are scaled perfectly to this size. Araguaia is around 29kt/yr phase1+phase2, Vermelho I think 20-25kt. So hopefully sweet spot to majors and also scalable (could potentially produce more in future if the demand is there - as the resource base is vast).

So again, if major players/financiers only want to get involved in large-ish projects that generate decent volumes of output, are scalable and long mine life, hopefully Horizonte have assets that tick those boxes. Orion certainly appear to believe so and it bodes very well indeed.

I watched the interview with Mark Selby (many thanks Zebbo). My take away messages are:

Vermelho capex sits right on the $30-$35k/tonne HPAL cost-to-build HPAL mines. These plants are not simple to put together and get up and running successfully. So Horizonte need a partner ideally with proven expertise. But the bonus of course is lowest quartile C1 cost and Cobalt, so for these reasons, I (personally) believe we will get the partner.

The nickel boom is coming but is going to be a gradual process to get there, maybe early to mid 2020s. The key thing here is that the finance and partners Horizonte are looking for have to be sophisticated players who can look ahead that timeframe with some confidence at the eventual outcome. The key thing is for Araguaia and Vermelho to to be up and running by the sweet spot in the cycle (high nickel prices) you need the cash now to build the mines because of the time to build and get operational. So the risk appetite/market perception is key. I don't really understand the project financing side but this is likely to determine the success of the project. No wonder it is taking a while to sort! GLA.

Two of my trades yesterday for around £10k each (buys) still didn't show, not even after hours. I bought before 9am. There is a single trade of similar but not identical value to the 2 trades:

08:21:15 3.15 605,000

At least, they aren't listed on this site. Is that a bit odd or does it happen often? Don't think I've seen it before (not that I often look up my own trades just I was interested because of the low volume).

Director buy at least confirms they are not selling it (yet). Onwards and upwards. Gla.

EU thinks there's a future in EV:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-50684075?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5dee43c410dc73067b736338%26Battery%20research%20project%20charges%20up%262019-12-09T13%3A28%3A27.276Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:da5585d3-4b84-41c1-824f-3728df056404&pinned_post_asset_id=5dee43c410dc73067b736338&pinned_post_type=share

April 6th - £60k at 3p will be 2 million horizonte shares more in the 3xISA, 2 million less in the trading account. Happy with that outcome, or a prior rerate then less (shares) going to ISA. I've built a position of 14.6m at the moment and I envisage getting this over 15m next year. The more I can get in the ISA the merrier. I feel for those who want to make a quick(ish) buck of course (and I would never say no to such an outcome), but for the patient investor, I do genuinely feel there are market timing opportunities that just yield big over a longer time horizon. This lull in nickel price and prior to some serious EV rampup in the next few years is just such an opportunity I feel.

Well, my buys still aren't showing (2 of them, 1 is). Wonder who gains from not disclosing that some optimistic chap thought this is a very good morning to top up, Christmas cheer and all that, with 3x£10k of hard earned. Very fishy. Somebody wants it to drift lower for sure... again, works well for me as long as it persists till April.

Couple of my buys from this morning not showing yet, don't know what to make of that. Completed about an hour ago but took a while to go through. Bit of selective publication of trading activity or just low volume shenanigans?

JM's stated aim was to get the mcap over £100m to get additional investment going and potentially to get the equity part bagged. I think from the interview his timeframe was 'next 6 months' around 3 months ago. That's 6.9p at todays issued capital. I'm sure it's not easy but I am guessing they are working hard on it. Post Orion at 5p that represented around 40% upside on the then share price, today it represents 120% upside. Makes the current price a bargain (all IMHO etc).