Member Info for wasarunner

another tranche for me, still see sub 4p as excellent value here and my ftse 100 shares were up a bit so offloaded some
inching ever closer towards that 1% holding...

And I don't mean I want ISA abolished by whichever party wins the GE, I mean I'd like to see the price well north, obviously...

I would like to move £60k worth into 3 ISA's on April 6th, ideally under 5p. What's the chances? Slim, I hope...

On the plus side we're 2p higher than same day/month a year ago.

Oh hang on - that's roughly the Orion cash.... so still no further attributable value has been gained by anything that has passed in the last 12 months, including the news that a major mine financier is now on the books and ready to part with significant $$$ for a slice or multiple slices of the action...

maybe the base case NPV of Vermelho $1.7bn is starting to add something to the sp today.

nah, can't be that...

Zebbo possibly - I'm not sure what conditions come attached to the debt (but they like to see equity joining I believe). I believe it is the equity which wants the mcap over £100m so that any equity portion of financing can be had at an attractive - low dilution. By the sounds of things though it could be cooking nicely if other posters are right and newsflow might provide the equity portion. I was merely musing on the offtake side - assuming offtake can be secured as prepaid - it actually doesn't take a vast amount of offtake to finance the build. At the end of the day although Araguaia capex is a decent chunk ($400m+) compared to the production metrics in a decent nickel market, it can be covered relatively quickly!

I might be completely barking up the wrong tree (and other things might be happening/afoot) but to my simple maths:

If Horizonte could secure a prepaid offtake for 1 year of Araguaia Phase 1 (14.5kt of Nickel) at $15k/t. This would be around $217.5m. You can use half of this for capex (this supports around 25% of project capex) and half for opex - works out around the C1 cost of, lets call it $7.5k/t.

So unless I'm a million miles out and have missed some big factors here, securing offtake for a year of supply at or around current prices would finance 25% of capex. Assuming debt can finance 60-65%. Just a bit more to find...

Unless I am oversimplifying nearly 100% of management time will now be being spent on the crucial deals for this company - partner for V, finance for A. Maybe a bit of permitting work for V ongoing, maybe some prep build work for A, perhaps some hiring build team/securing suppliers for A - but I expect not too much because you wouldn't enter contracts of build a big team until finance is secure.

So (IMHO) the current status on the two projects leaves close to 100% senior mgt time available for negotiating these key deals. I also believe these deals will unlock the potential of the company (and hence the value for shareholders) so having near 100% of effort concentrated can only be a good thing.

On an aside does anybody find the Vermelho panning panoramic picture on the Horizonte sight amusing? The caption says 'an advanced nickel project' (which of course it is, in the sense that the resource has been sampled/proven/tested/measured etc) but the picture shows two pretty tree-clad hills with countryside everywhere. One would like to see for an 'advanced nickel project' some heavy plant, bits of factory, few cranes, diggers, that kind of thing maybe? I know that's all to come (assuming we get to production before it gets bought) in which case we could update the pictures then...

Luke - whichever way I move the slider gives me a higher valuation than $0 - the approximate value of Vermelho in the current mcap :)

I really didn't think we would be consolidating around 4p - I thought minimum 5p possibly higher, post Vermelho PFS. The market is completely discounting Vermelho, which is a Tier 1 asset with now pretty compelling metrics published (lower capex than anticipated, bottom quartlile C1 cost etc). It's EV compatible. There is also cobalt.

It's a tad frustrating but we have to remind ourselves it will just make the re-rate jump bigger when it inevitably happens. The nickel story is in full swing now and we have the asset(s) to support it. Patience my fellow investors :)

Hands up who wouldn't take £835m today, on a 5x valuation basis. I'd take it (grudgingly)...

Zebbo agreed (and it's the first thing I checked - I'd never heard of the producer) but arguably Horizonte's reserves should be worth as much, on valuation basis on annual production multiple. I think buyers will look at reserves. So 3.5m tonnes vs 200kt reserves there's no comparison really (38 year mine life vs 8 - on mine life alone we are looking at nearly 5 times multiple!)

zebbo that was my example actually - sadly I held BKY once upon a time :(

Horizonte gone Vertical. At this rate we'll hold a 5% rise by COB :)

@fulmar I once held a stock which was traded on 3 exchanges and there were quite big disparities at times. My understanding (which is very basic on this subject) is that physically shares were issued in this particular co on the different exchanges and were not strictly interchangeable - the market makers couldn't transfer shares between exchanges. There was very different liquitidy on the 3 exchanges so something like a 20-25% price difference was not unusual. That may or may not be being the case here. I think with high volume traded stocks the disparity is less (like the FTSE 100 stocks traded on multiple exchanges).

It is interesting that a lot of commentary is that nickel will soften in the near term (analysts saying it maybe overshot on price and also I believe there is a seasonal slowdown in useage by China in the winter?) It will be very interesting to see if this doesn't play out as the market expects and actually we see the stock disappearing and the Indo ban coming in if nickel goes against this prediction. Say it hits $18-$20k/tonne range in the early New Year. It wouldn't be bad for Horizonte's chances of nailing the financing - and I would think it is at least a possible scenario. I can't really see a drop back to $14k/t at the moment at least the LME levels can't support that I wouldn't have thought?

agreed it can be frustrating - what I noticed was that when the share was in the pits (I mean the 1.7-1.8p range) I had no problem at all loading up - I guess somebody was happy to offload at those prices it might have been the City Financial sell off or something. I was buying £10k chunks, sometimes more, and plenty of them - never a problem buying. It seems a tighter market at the moment and more volatile.

Course if it got to 7-10p I guess lots of traders would bail then we would be in a holding pattern for final financing....

Yep Catching agreed - the cash in the bank has to be worth something also. Not saying it isn't possible but Geng's support at 2.6p would value each mine at around £4m stripping out cash, or less than the purchase price of Vermelho. FWIW I put it to you good people that this share is worth a lot more than 4p and hopefully 'imminently' we will see some news to confirm such a hypothesis. It kind of feels like there is another level around 7p-10p shareprice where we have much more clarity on the Araguaia financing (but maybe it isn't a completely financed at that point). That's the range it needs to get to to get the £100m+ mcap that they are after to complete financing. Not sure exactly what news is needed to get it there.