Member Info for wasarunner

Hopefully this 3p area will be a floor (others have suggested this), would seem to make sense, if a bit barmy, as around 2p is cash. Coincidentally my average is around where we are sitting now, so a floor would suit me here as there must be plenty of upside - apart from anything else I see Nickel prices higher at least 2nd half of next year.

There is a chance that next year plays out a bit like this one for Horizonte. Nickel rises in H2 and deals are concluded leading to big jumps in price and progress forward. At the moment sentiment (and nickel price) remain subdued. Maybe Trump gets impeached and that's the catalyst, but I could just be grasping at straws here...

Added around £30k this morning that brings me a smidgeon over 1%. Bargain basement prices, very happy with the executed prices. My insurance / fallback here is that even in the event of a firesale (and I mean, a really distressed sale) Horizonte's assets must be worth £250m/$300m or around 5x todays SP (talking proper bargain sale territory). It isn't what I'm here for, but it would suffice. Either way I think we will know, my timeframe is within next year (but by all accounts probably H1 ish) where this is going. Roll on 2020, GLA!

I will be buying monday. Cheap as chips at current price. Still hoping it stays low a couple more months until I can move more funds / other things play out, probably april 6th pushing it a bit we will have news before then, I feel.

In fact, they can't do it can they. It will all be under NDA. It's one thing to dig a hole and say we've found some, but when you are in detailed contract negotiations (as seems likely) you can't exactly come on every week and say 'we've secured another £xyz million'. They've already told us is it is a complicated process and they are working on 'the whole package'. I'm happy waiting. My price target on finance deal/Vermelho JV still 10-15p. That's only a mid-term target for 3-6 months time.

In fact, I'd argue it's as good a buy at this price as it was at 1.7p when we had the distressed seller. Since then the Orion buy in and the Vermelho combination of proving the EV suitability and PFS have surely derisked by at least another 1.7p to produce todays SP ~3.4p. Absolute bargain basements at the moment for anyone lucky enough to have some cash...

Big value disconnect here which will correct at some point. What we know is that the board are 100% focussed on the dealmaking which will push the co towards becoming a producer, or selling/JVing it. Literally nothing else to do for them at the moment. I'm sure the weakness in the Nickel market isn't a great thing but negotiations were advanced with the banks already early in 2019, Endevour were already on the case in late 2018, and Orion have a >6 month forward look when they parted with their cash and bought in.

It's all good. Privately hoping it stays low for a little while longer while other investments play out so I can buy more. Any more I can buy in the 3.3p-4p range is an absolute bonus. At this rate I might get to 1%... GLA!

Multiples = buyers or of SP on a potential deal? Both hopefully!

One thing for sure, news probably lands when we least expect it. I am also curious to see what the ban situation brings to the Nickel share price early next year. Quite a tight situation on the LME so if we see another batch of buying it could have an even bigger impact on Nickel pricing, possibly a real spike effect up and beyond $20k/t. It is not inconceivable that Horizonte are carefully managing negotiations around the expected nickel pricing - close the deal mid next year when price is anticipated to be much higher maybe?

Either which way spending time to get the best deal, whilst a tad frustrating for holders (whether in it for a sale or to see returns from production) is time well invested. On the production side then we want to get to a deal so we produce early and start returning all that Nickel cash in ground to shareholders! Bring on 2020 GLA.

Will it help though? Will that be handbrakes off?

I'm a bit tempted to cash some other risky AIM punt and switch back into here again with my remaining 2% at this price but I think at the risk of being labelled a daytrader just to keep the holdings as at present. I'll reconsider if it goes much lower though! I don't much understand the recent days/weeks movements in the 3.6-4.3 range on very little external news and certainly not on company news? Sure nickel has dipped a bit but it is a pretty volatile commodity and nothing about the long term has changed here?

after April 6th please for that 'compelling' offer...

https://www.weare121.com/121mininginvestment-sydney/clients/horizonte-minerals/

3-6 months determine strategic partner for Vermelho nickel cobalt project
6-9 months close the Finance Package for Araguaia project

Of course news can happen sooner and we could have smaller chunks of news along the way rather than the main event just to keep the wheels turning and the shareprice ticking up. I'm starting to hope nothing substantial until after April 6th, so many ISA's to top up and I didn't think I'd get another chance.

Agreed Jimzi - with HZM I can't see how we come out building with the combined capex & owning 2x mines 100% without any dilution or JV, my view is we accept that the board are working hard at the moment to minimise this and maximise the retained percentages and that due to the vast resources of the two mines, if we come out with anything like (I'm happy with 50-80% here - for e.g. sale of one mine completely to build the other or JV on Vermelho with small equity raise on Araguaia) of the total equity for current holders, we do very well in a strong nickel market. My investment is currently based on a 'worst case' 50% equity retained.

If we can come through both projects build and retain 100% even better but I'm not sure how that's possible (and the current SP suggests it isn't!)

Luke I agree 'not for sale' might mean 'yet'. Maybe it's worth building the mines, waiting for $20k/t+ and then the price for the buyer is $$$ and shareholders return is nearer to true value. Only thing I don't get is if a JV precludes future sale but there might be ways around that. Sell them 40% now (to get financed and mines built), potentially the rest 60% later but at a much higher price or something.

Just musing further, if it doesn't sell the real value is down the line. But there will be an exit point at some multiples in the near term when the deals are done. I guess that might be a decision point for most PIs, I'll be sticking around for the longer term but wonder what others think? What's a reasonable exit what are people hoping for if this goes onto produce but people can't wait 2-5 years - 20p? More? Depending on the deals mcap of £300m I would think is achievable if both Vermelho and Araguaia have concrete plans to get to production, even in the mid term (obviously and hopefully higher by the time production is reached?)

That last one is the most interesting one for me. When/if that becomes nailed on (it isn't getting sold) I wonder if some churn happens at that point by investors who were only in for the sale. I guess that point also coincides with the other steps being announced - JV / financing news which will raise the shareprice potentially (hopefully).

So are we a few months/half year away from finding out definitively that HZM will be a nickel producer, and not an explorer, and will this mean some PIs will cycle out and some IIs will cycle into the investment?

It will be interesting to see the significant shareholders update - I think it has to be published every 6 months on AIM? On Horizonte website it is listed as at 20th June 2019 so I guess an update on that might be provided before yearend. Will be interested if any of the bigger players have trimmed or added positions. If I keep adding I might crawl onto the list one day :)

JD interested you think Glencore will be the ones to be involved - Teck have a larger holding and reportedly no Nickel assets? WHy are you thinking Glencore - do they have any synergy there in Brazil with other mines (I know Horizonte purchased part of the Araguaia resource from Glencore).

Elon's investing in Germany.
Horizonte are presenting at Mello at 10.15.

Watch the buys flood in this afternoon :)

In all seriousness the Orion announcement coincided (as I looked back) with the year high on Nickel around $18k/t. Nickel fallen back and Horizonte had not much news since (if we ignore the ~$2bn project valuation for Vermelho PFS - I jest here of course). So maybe some pullback is expected but stripping out cash we're back to around 1.7p or around the year low.

All to play for IMHO and around now is as good an entry point as any for all those newly introduced investors on the Horizonte marketing trail...

Catching I have a similar strategy - I'm not overly confident on AIM and by all accounts, there is an awful lot of wannaby companies out there that are just not going to make it. I built up my HZM stake over 2 years after painstaking research to give me conviction to invest anything going into double figure % holdings of my portfolio here. Yes I'm very 'overweight' here now but I see it as the steady ship on the AIM as it were, if such a thing is possible. Maybe better multiples can be had elsewhere and quicker, but possibly not as de-risked as here. We must be as close to de-risked as possble - not sure many others have an Orion already onboard.

Indeed mate - I suspect if it does close the gap there should be good buying support. I never get the technicals quite right so buy not always at the bottom and sell not always at the top but if you go for the long term hopefully these movements are noise in the grand scheme of things. On fundamentals then we wait for the company to update with the real gamechanging news which I still believe is finance complete on Araguaia and partner for Vermelho either of which could (indeed should!) move us to a different mcap entirely, one feels.

Catching I think just general drift on no news and possibly softening a bit on nickel price and it's the winter so people are just miserable generally. Things will pickup for sure. The longer we go without news the harder and longer Endevour will have been working on the finance deal. I presume they get their reward when the finance deal is in the bag.

Is anybody going to the event HZM presenting at this week? Let us know how it goes and what the feedback is. I wanted to be in London but couldn't make it.