Member Info for wasarunner

One thing which I haven't seen mentioned before but which is a real positive for me is that the board have clearly done some outstanding (possibly 'buy of the century') type deal making on the buy side. One thinks of the Araguaia North purchase and then Vermelho. Bottom of the market and so forth. Arguably this has been the greatest thing about this company but these things happened before I started following it so happy to stand corrected.

I'm assuming that these skills are also relevant for selling / dealmaking on the sell side. Closing the Orion deal is an early indication that the Horizonte board are as adept at getting financing deals as they are at picking up mining resources. At this stage in the company life this is probably more important than the actual ability to build or own or operate a mine. If they get this stage right they might not even have to do the latter :)

Luke, I'm not forgetting that Endevour have been on the job now a year. I suspect many discussions are well advanced. Lots of news could land anytime. Market sentiment is market sentiment but the previous lows made for very good buying opps and we could just be seeing another one right now. I have to confess I don't really understand the market gyrations but it shouldn't matter in the long term if this is going where we think it's going - 1.7p is a good entry point, as is 3.9p as is 5p as is 4.4p. These are all numbers I've bought at!

Thanks Luke, indeed, pretty clear isn't it! Summed up nicely in the slide.

Lotto, thanks and agreed. I'm an engineer by trade (different industry but principles apply) and building multiple complex things with limited resources is a huge challenge. Less so for majors, I would imagine. I think they are making the correct decision getting the partner for the larger capex, potentially more complicated technically project. And lets not forget Vermelho is still behind Araguaia so if they want to start make money soonest, best bet is to get Araguaia built as soon as possible for which they (we) need cash.

I bought another tranche just now below 4p just because I didn't think we'd see that number and I like all the developments last and this week. A decent tranche for me, I sold some other holdings to pay for it. Nickel inventories drawing down very nicely too. Perfect storm - it could just be happening?

Thanks Lotto, yes I think it might happen sooner than people think (although such deals are probably complex to negotiate) I can imagine there will be plenty of appetite for the project with the way EV is looking. I would be surprised if Araguaia got fully financed and build started mid/Q3 next year, and we don't have a partner for Vermelho in the same timeframes TBH.

Does anybody think we will get a BFS before partner news on Vermelho? My impression is very much that Horizonte want somebody else to produce the BFS and that therefore we will get a partner announcement before a BFS. I guess they can progress permitting in the meantime (can they do this post PFS without the BFS?). Timeframes? Next 6-9 months?

As I see it:

- 3.5m tonnes contained nickel at the price today ($16k/t) = $56bn nickel in the ground
- stainless steel will use nickel for foreseeable future and stainless steel use will grow reliably for the foreseeable future
- many/most car manufacturers shifting to EV and EV will use nickel for foreseeable future
- Araguaia lowest quartile production cost when compared to global peers
- Vermelho lowest quartile production cost when compared to global peers
- Brazil is a reasonable jurisdiction
- Co is valued at around £60m mcap today
- How precisely Horizonte can finance the mines and who any partners will be (if any JV) is unknown

So on those facts people can make their own decisions. I've been invested 1 or 2 years and happy to see it through be it 5-10yrs+. No ramp, no opinion, just facts! There are risks of course, and the last point above is probably why the market is pricing the shares the way it is pricing them.

Incidentally the big 'tick' for me was bottom quartile on cost, it's what I was hoping for. That and the lower capex than maybe everybody anticipated are the real positives from the pfs. Very happy holding here and see how it plays.

Thanks Lotto - yes I picked up that they are going for the best material first (I think it's natural for capex payback etc). What's clear is there is loads of resource so no shortage of mine life! I also think a potential buyer will know that there is more resource and that could be attractive, there just aren't many mines with ~1.6m tonnes around? We have to wait and see how it plays out. I think Horizonte hold lots of cards, assuming the nickel market remains robust...

One thing I think most can agree on is the stall/pull back/whatever you want to call it you see now on the sp is not due to the actual contents of the Vermelho pfs, rather general sentiment/sell the news type behaviour. On the Araguaia BFS many argued the first news release (phase 1 only) didn't deliver quite as good as maybe market expected on things like NPV etc. I don't think many are disputing that Vermelho PFS is actually very solid on all fronts, probably lower capex than most expected, better NPV/mine life/optionality to scale etc. Absolutely patience is the key - value will out...

It feels like momentum might have stalled on Nickel at least in the short term so I can't see the Nickel price pushing us on in the next 2-3 months...

VanVan it's a good question and one I wonder myself (on other posts). I guess financing news might be the key (on Araguaia), possibly partner news for Vermelho might achieve the same.

I know people have different opinions and it grates sometimes but I appreciate seeing the cautious / more pessimistic view of people also on this board. I bought into this share initially around 1-2 years ago in the 4-4.5p range quite heavily, thinking mainly the stars were aligning and we were heading up. Since then it has visited 1.7p. Caution is always worthwhile and the odd reminder of other projects/AIM investments (which I won't name to avoid upsetting anybody) is cautionary even though the circumstances may be different. At the end of the day we all have to make our own judgements and I guess study the facts as we see them and not be too swayed by opinion.

I didn't see us hitting 4p after the Orion news so I appreciate that such things are very possible, even in the face of what looks like very positive news on the co!

On the Vermelho presentation I quote: "Vermelho average production 24,000 tpa nickel
contained in sulphate for EV battery market
? Staged 1 & 2 production"

Did anybody pick up in the conversation any mention of what the stages were? I'm assuming the quoted capex ~$650m delivers the total quoted ~24kt/yr nickel production, and it isn't pitched like Araguaia where the initial capex covers stage 1? Or, do we think the the $650 might be the total capex estimated at PFS but this total could be broken down by a phased build approach into a smaller initial capex to get 1 line going? Thoughs?

Incidentally reinvested the trading shares at 5p so I'm down on the 'trading pot' now. Just shows I'm a very poor trader so need to stick with what works for me in the past - the medium-long game! Where entry price tends to be less important than patience, I find...

Thanks Lotto. I'm looking for the slide with the big red blob showing Vermelho vs the peers on the amount of contained resource/grade scale just to remind myself how bloody fantastic it really is...

Ditto Luke, I put some money in to 'trade' (having said I will never trade Horizonte) and traded around 2.1-2.5p range once, couple of weeks I think before Orion news? Within weeks we hit 5p. Happy to take profit at the time but it became obvious the big reward is down the road here and can happen any time...

The video from the presentation yesterday is up on the Horizonte site under videos, unfortunately it doesn't appear to contain the slides from the presentation which is what I was after, but it has the half hour call if anybody is interested....

interestingly showing as a sell....(was most definitely a buy!)

Added a modest tranche at 4.24 - a price I didn't think we would see post Orion, let alone post PFS. Very small tranche (for me) as most of my money is now in. Think we will see a return in the financing window (next 3-6mths) but all IMHO etc.