Member Info for wasarunner

Cebo 100% agree. I made 300% profit on EUA which is the highest profit I have taken on a stock (as I said I'm not a trader and previously being FTSE invested you just don't see those returns, well, not over a 7 month investment window anyway!)

Horizonte will eventually be similar, more, less who knows we don't know. But it's fun speculating. All my ramblings are just that ramblings. I know you weren't having a pop!

It's a fun journey once the downside is de-risked. We need a black swan event for this to go to 0. In all other scenarios anyone who invested sub 5p will make money. Not a lot not to like. Will be fun watching it play out.

I genuintely hope my numbers are pessimistic because if we see 15p I'll slice a bit for the house purchase. I never believed we would see that number before production but if we do, I was wrong, and a very happy wrong I'll be!!!

Cebo I just worked out at 6.2p my 'sell EUA buy Horizonte) matches holding EUA. So we're actually interestingly not too far off a breakeven position on that switch. Then which company goes where from there - who knows. EUA or HZM could be better from there I wouldn't want to influence anybody else just in my own research I picked Horizonte.

There was a better trading opportunity in the interim but as I've stated here many times I'm carp at trading :)

Cebo, all views respected and of course nobody should base investment decisions on others opinions :)

I sold EUA because I thought Horizonte could 10bag from 3.4p and I didn't know if EUA could. It might not or it might but that was my rationale. Yes with perfect hindsight there was an opportunity to sell at 22p and buy here at 3.4p which might have been the perfect move. I'm 50% up on my Horizonte purchase since that point and EUA is currently up around 100% so taking the cut at this point in time - it wasn't a perfect decision of course.

I think people misunderstand when I mean the finance will be sold. I mean it will be bought (obviously - it is big news) but then at some point, not necessarily the same day, maybe later that week, maybe two weeks later, people who have waited here for many years for that day (finance complete) who don't want to wait 2 more years to build and beyond might exit, with some or all - for many it will be a slice, for some it might be all.

That we get enough new PIs to replace them, buying, and IIs buying, well that's what remains to be seen. My point really is if that happens on the day the patient PIs sold, we might not see the dip. If that happens in 6 months time, we might see a dip then higher highs.

If we look at all the chart that show share price against mine stage progression which have been posted here recently it shows a general uptrend in shareprice from the point where we are now (finance completed) to producer. I just wonder if maybe we will see a dip at some point post finance in that general uptrend. Its the kind of dip Westie is hoping for.

My hope of course is ongoing steady shareprice rise from now until 2025 with no dips or buts. :)

dj I hope so. That i am on the pessimistic side is self evident. Doesn't look like I'm going to sub 5p topup on 28/8 and it looks like my 4.9p prediction for 15th Sept is looking light.

As long as I keep underpredicting I'll be popular with board members when we over achieve! GLA

I guess what I'm talking about might look like this. 7/8p pre finance. Finance news lands - it is great, not much dilution, some big new miner Rio has taken a stake. News galore. Next big thing. Lots of new PIs buy the news lots of excitement we go to 12p.

All those patiently waiting for finance for a long time, plus Westie's (if there are more than one Westie), plus those cranking twitter overtime now are looking for that moment. They sell 12p.

We drop to 10p. Maybe 9p. Maybe to whatever price the equity was issued at (which should really be a floor and I would expect the SP to overshoot post finance).

My point is really that would then become the floor but I see potentially more than 12p next year. So hold 6mths+ from the herd exit and I am up on the herd.

Could I sell the pattern above to buy more? Probably. But the only scenario I'll be doing it is if the CGT rules look like changing. In all other scenarios I'm holding for the 6mths+ when we start seeing funds adding - not £1k, £3k, £5k buys but nice steady block buying or big transactions. Big independent investors also adding to their portfolios etc.

GLA

dj understand that the price might move up (maybe immediately, maybe later) but there will be selling.

The way I know is I'm in touch with a few people who are 'in' for financing. They may or may not leave some running to production but many will take at least their initial holdings out. So at financing there will be a replacement of some PIs holdings by either other PIs or IIs. I'm guessing PIs being impatient will take their winnings early, perhaps too early. IIs being more patient will buy when they deem risk is right.

Doesn't preclude a move up at financing of course. At the end of the day it is a relatively simple equation - more buyers than sellers and in theory the price should move up! Just that I know there will be some who will be selling - and who can blame anyone for selling 7-10p+ if they've been here 2-5+ years and seen lows of 1.5p. Nothing wrong with it at all.

The more I think about it the more relaxed I am about a sell off (if any) on financing. My predicted trajectory is, maybe a bit of a spike at the time, then a sell down as people 'sell the news'.

But next year I expect serious II interest so unless one is attempting to sell to buy back in (nothing wrong with it Westie), I think a higher price can be achieved next year than at finance complete this year. And the funds won't buy on the day of the news. For them Horizonte may/may not already be on the radar but actually they are more likely to buy as time rolls on and the build is de-risked. I never really got it (surely it's best to be early) but from funds point of view they really would rather pay higher price for less risk.

Then there is Vermelho progress next year. Very likely and very likely to add to mcap.
Then there is nickel price progress. With Horizonte building, and nickel a couple of $k/t higher than this year, the SP will like it very much.

So all in all pretty relaxed if the finance gets sold by PIs - I think there is more money here next year to be made (and the year after, and the year after that).

timing is sweet but $15k/t is a given IMO in short order. Coincidence that the newsflow has started? Think not. We have a smart BOD - they can't control when JPM/RG/CF exit, and this can throw a curveball into the works, but notwithstanding, the patience they have shown with the macro they have been dealt, and the end result when they deliver the finance package by end of year - pretty amazing really. It highlights two salient points for me really:

- we have the right BOD. They can get finance done against a tough macro backdrop
- we have the right assets. They are financeable against the tough macro backdrop

Probably the first of the above is the most important but the second is not far behind.

My 4.9p estimate factored a bit of 'anticipation' but no actual news.
I think the £325m and now the FOMO has broken the 5p barrier for us.
A news item on a big offtaker (US Govt would do) before 15th September brings higher estimates into play!

We've got to remember gross profit from Araguaia Phase 1 will be around £107m (conservative) at a reasonable nickel price ($10k/t gross profit).

Does that justify £100m mcap today? Hell yeah, and the rest.

7p has a natural order to it IMO. £100m mcap unless people fear 100% dilution they know they will make money. It is a bargain up to 7p.

Saw it on EUA it settled at times near natural mcap's where double the mcap seemed possible. While people think 100% upside is achievable there is usually enough buyers. From £100mcap £200mcap is easily possible here (albeit some dilution). GLA

I think I made £100k in 11 minutes (paper of course). That's better than my job dayrate, for sure...

if our seller has gone relatively low volume will move it. Lot of sticky hands around waiting for finance complete once the profit takers profit take. I suspect the twitter leaders want more yet :)

My concern with the trading account is CGT is under review by the govt with the report due at around the time we are expecting financing complete or slightly earlier (October I believe). Whilst any proposed changes may not take effect till April, there is a scenario where it may be better to sell shares with the 20/21 rules and potentially re-buy.

My hope it isn't merged with income tax that would be a bit of a disaster for personal circumstances. I don't mind paying some tax but 45%?! - govt took no risk here and didn't hold through the 1.7p dark days etc.

>>Wasar, it's usually £20k p.a., are you getting 2 family in to make 60?
Trying to get 2 more to make 5 ISA's in total (already got 3 on the go). At 10p that'll take 7.5 years to fill (from the shares in the trading accounts), at 20p 15 years to fill. Pretty resigned I'll be paying some CGT one day!

Time to transfer them was 1.8p but sadly only had 3 ISAs in play then. I've pretty much maxed my allowance and moved everything since I discovered Horizonte 2 years ago.

25% SIPP, 41% ISA, 34% trading
Will continue migrating £60k/yr to ISA until company sells.

Think dj drank the barrels sometimes he rambles on more than me! I will leave the board in peace and watch some tv. The weekday investors tuning in will wonder what horizonte news on Saturday resulted in 67 messages! See you all on Monday for the next move to mid 5p or high 4p which will it be.

Aim life ain't a straight line let me tell you I've been there. Really enjoy this board, the common purpose of trying to move forward financially - lots of food for thought but also good banter. If one day some can meet in dj's pub he ever opens it again I will come down. In the meantime I am respectful and will listen to all input and there are plenty of very insightful people on here. At the end of the day though you have to put your own money down and that takes belief in your own research. I wouldn't like to try to persuade somebody else to invest but I will happily tell anybody why I did so. Gla

Westie completely understand your strategy and speaking from experience it works. For many years I traded a very small set of stocks I believed to be fundamentally undervalued (therefore long term upside) to increase holdings. It made me 5-6 figs a year and your insurance is always you are in cash or the do nothing approach long term should be upside just to hold the stock. Nothing wrong with trading to increase your position.

Because I find aim so unpredictable short term (basically one ii selling down horizonte can tank the price) I never tried it on aim. When I did try like odx I lost. So I will stick to what I believe - in a timeframe I can afford to wait this will be 20p and in the meantime if its 2p or 5p doesnt matter.

Understand your point about age. Very much hoping to be enjoying the riches - 4 years I will be 50. I set that aim a few years ago to be 'semi retired' at 50 - work potentially but only on my own terms. Getting there....

I think if you had a time machine now you'd go back 10 years and buy Apple shares. Who would think youth would spend a grand on a phone right?

In 10 years time you would go back 10 years to buy Horizonte shares. Who could see the electrification of the world coming right?

That's why I think the article misses the point! At a point of transformational/generational change, you can 'watch and wait for pullback' or you can embrace the future. 1m t/yr extra demand by end of current decade tells me the time to buy Horizonte is now.