Member Info for wasarunner

Ethio, holding till 2023 or 20p+ (at least). No rush for me if we achieve that in 2023 it is good enough.

I toyed with the idea of selling 1/5th post finance if we saw anything like 12p but I'm canning that idea. Why sell at 12p if 2 years later I can sell at 24p. It is only going up at production. Just need to be a bit more patient to buy my house but I'll buy a bigger or nicer one as a result.

Good luck with your investment are you hoping to add any more? I notice EUA is doing not too bad at the mo. At what point is it switchable? Or is it ODX you want to switch from I know you had both at one point.

rhyming slang?!

Flavour - feels achievable and you may get there quicker if it sells, as TDT suggests 50p could be achieved on sale. Vermelho P2 producing is probably a way off. Also if Vermelho P2 is producing, you probably won't want to sell Horizonte at that point (even at 50p). I suspect the dividend Horizonte can pay you on 1m shares will far outperform your income fund, at least during the nickel cycle second half of the decade. Of course, we probably won't be independent by then.

I have a very similar plan to yours (and indeed, bizarrely I would be looking to 'cash' about 1/5 of my investment too around 2023+) main difference being just the no. of shares in play. I don't know yet what I would do with the 4/5 if Horizonte sells but I would be looking for 'safe' and 'yield' and compound growth and all the good things all investors dream about. etc.

Like Flavour says - insurance against it not working out is the dayjob.

Yeah to make proper money I had to use around £200k+. My strategy wasn't day trades I think it might be known in the lingo as swing trading and I tried to mop up as much divi as possible. Worked well for a few years, 5 and 6 figure returns. All the gains are in here now :)

PIFace - it worked for me (but I traded FTSE stock), the downside was the need to watch stuff all the time so essentially it does become a full time job, just different from another full time job. I mainly changed strategy so I didn't have to watch all day (and can hold down a full time job - well a couple in my case). I could outperform over a year my job income doing it, but it was hard work. Easier to buy Horizonte, wait 5 years and exit (well, my strategy anyway) GLA.

That said it is hard to hold down any kind of job when this share gets motoring. Too much to keep abreast of.

"If you get off the train here, there is very unlikely to be another one along."

The other trains will also take longer to get to the destination (e.g. Canada Nickel). We mustn't forget this isn't a pipedream here, we're going to hit the nickel market in 2023, just over 2 years, by which time it should be a very interesting market indeed. Rare opportunity here (and still, at 5p, multiple multiple upside).

Craig - agree I think single digit for the raise what's intriguing me is who joining the party at this round (if indeed new IIs onboard). I'm pretty relaxed about the raise because I think it will be for an amount we can comfortably handle so it doesn't matter. Probably the news of who joins (or who increases) will be enough to get the speculation going here as to what the longer term holds and hence get the SP to double digits hopefully post financing.

Also think any II buying into the raise will hold for term - production or sale, and these will be sticky hands on the new shares. Yes people will exit and we will get churn but the company will start to motor from here. Well done on your patience - honestly don't know if I could have held that long through the ups and downs! Especially when the nickel market was properly tanked.

I'm being offered 4.91p to sell which is a good sign! An attack on 5p today/tomorrow? (wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend etc...)

Good luck to all invested here. I still maintain that II's rule the roost and largely determine the fate of companies and PI's - you can't legislate for what has happened here with City Financial, RG, JPM these entities hold a lot of firepower, generally have better connection/research/information so the odds are heavily stacked against the PI's. That we can compete against them at all on the same playing field - you have to have patience as nobody and I mean nobody can get the timing perfectly, and you also have to have a strong belief in the directors of the company as they have it in their ability to send the company south or north at their will. The assets in and of themselves are not enough. I think here we are at the 'business end' of proceedings and I would like to wish all ivestors whether you held through 1.7p (and lower) or just joined good luck. It isn't an easy game but we are pretty close to there with this one! Stars aligning indeed. We find out in next few months to come. Gla.

Presumably once he exercised his options :). Solid few days tading here nice gradual rise no spike to sell down. Just wait for thst next (royalty?) news.

We might close tonight on JM's option price. Looking good.

My bet isn't looking too bad at the moment. GLA

Closing price at September 15:

4.5 Everton1965
4.7 AnimalSpirit
4.8 600Thieves
4.9 wasarunner
5.2 Rover62
5.5 chrismar
5.8 UncleJohn
5.9 owlo
6.0 ngnInv
6.1 Harkin100
6.4 Gower7465
6.5 Mazza86
6.9 pickedpeck
7.1 D220
7.5 Shellbay
7.8 backinblak
8 Thechukkers
8.2 craigieboy1
8.8 Bungle99
9.5 Nthoftheriver
10 Harry_Ore
10.7 Caledonite
11 Flavourshaker
11.5 Finleyboy01
12.2 LUKE1444
12.8 ihowells
12.9 Scotsknight
13.3 Qualia
14.26 fulmar29
15 djryan777
16 westie50
16.5 Worzel7
17.5 silkworm
21 SeanT1967
23.1 DickDabout
25 FiremanSam1968
32 Ivornomoney
40 Luke2

Thanks both, always respectful of input here. I am pleased that if my original estimates (which really formed my own, personal investment case) are pessimistic, they don't properly account for faster nickel price upside and Vermelho (deliberately) then all good if we outperform. Still intend to hold to 2023/2025/30p+ so lets see what plays, I also equally like the sound of takeout 50p+.

incidentally my feeling is my mcap estimates are on the pessimistic side (from feedback from others on this board also and by other P/E metrics) so if that is true we could see higher SP at both financing and production.

Whatever happens from here on in I would be very happy with 10p+ financing and 20p+ production. Anyone got much higher targets?

there is significant discount here at the moment for 'we don't have a done and dusted finance package' but I also suspect discount for 'we don't know how diluted we are going to be'. Aside from the obvious discount of 'we've only just heard of HZM should we buy in?' where people just don't know this is The Next Big Thing (AIM stock to rise).

If on the 'we don't know how diluted we are going to be' we surprise on the upside - i.e. very little dilution or it is constrained at project level or rolled up into some other kind of deal - we could see a double re-rate and my estimates become far too pessimistic near term. To stay grounded I always worked on 2.5bn shares equating to 10p at 250m mcap which I thought might be a realistic post finance price (initially, when we start building).

Now if little or no dilution happens at 1.6bn shares (including options) gives 15.6p.

The difference is even more obvious with my 'at production' estimate. If I estimate £500m mcap at production, at my previous shares in issue estimate 20p (perhaps pessimistic again but prefer to stay grounded). At that point equivalent would be 31.2p.

All illustrative only above but it does show the importance of a 'good deal' for existing shareholders and given the length of the process, if the BOD have been astute and diligent that's what they've been hammering out so we end with the top end of the above not the bottom end. Find out in a few months time!

Speaking personally, for my plans, big difference to me between 10 and 15.6p in the near term, and also between 20 and 31.2p in 2023. Probably others also.

Flavour don't sell the gf. Those 112000 will come in handy once we reach fair value on this stock.

wish I had gold bullion down the back of my sofa. All I find are peanuts (literally)

TBH I'm starting to believe I might end up with 1% and for me, that would be a huge result. I kind of hoped 2.5bn shares, maybe worst case 3bn. Wonder if we will be pleasantly surprised - looks possible.

I always factor the various 'options' when I do the shareholding calc and add around 10% to listed shares. I think the options are close to 10% at the moment if not quite there (don't have precise numbers).

23762952 inc family. Still some way down on craigieboy and it is getting more and more expensive to catch up!

hit intraday new year high this morning I think a fraction under 14800. Lets see 15000 in short order

I've realised I followed a reverse JPM investment model. I exited large cap stocks to pursue riches in commodities for next gen technology. Liquidity won't be an issue for me until Mrs Wasarunner decides further cash purchases of things are necessary. GLA.