Member Info for wasarunner

I've had to explain to friends/relatives etc who dont invest that I dont see this stock as a get rich quick scheme, I see it as a get rich slow scheme. But the end result is what matters. Appreciate those at a different age so ttotally accept people want to see returns sooner but I am still in my 40s so Vermelho 30+ year mine life is all still doable, fingers crossed for good health and all that. Early days here yet but this is a first and very significant step. I see the next few months and then next couple of years as totally company making. And for thkse of us in from pre- financing potentially life changing. Gla

Cant see finance being a problem for Vermelho now. Better grades, higher npv's and by the time it is needed, probably better nickel price. Both mines will get financed and will be interesting to see who joins the party on Vermelho. Going to be a very interesting 2021 and 2022 in to production....

Big three things I learned today, which is good enough for me. I will sit back and see this through:

1. Mine will get built finance deal is done. My investment is as de-risked as is possible in this sector I see little downside risk ar my average.
2. Equity will probably be better than I envisaged. Long term it means my targets will get hit sooner or, I can hold for higher returns (div or sale)
3. Vermelho was not needed for financing and so still presents all upside. Still no net contribution to sp.

Huge news today. Probably not the market reaction I expected but maybe slow and steady is better anyway. This is as close to a guaranted long term win now as you can hope for on the stock market. All IMHO and DYOR and all that....

themuir 30p is still some way off unless it gets sold. Sale value at current issued capital £500m ~ 30p is still very possible and could still happen at any point in the build cycle.

But in time at production, with both Phase 1 + Phase 2 Araguaia producing and something happening with Vermelho 30p is very possible. My average is around 3.25p so its around a 10 bag target. I might get itchy feet around 20p though if we see that!

PIFace the beauty of this company is it offers a return on many investors time horizons. Near term we have the financing / finance complete, then we have some progress on Vermelho very possible - most likely next year now. Most are agreed we will be at full value in a huge nickel bull market 2025+ for any who can wait that long. My total exit target is 30p+ here but I don't see that for many years yet. But if we get less equity issued than I expected to fund Araguaia, that number is achievable probably earlier than I anticipated. GLA

you can't really make it up. Orion give us $25m we see 7p. Banks give us $325m we see 4.8p. Odd, to say the least. Never mind, the smart money will be buying/adding from here on in. Let the traders get cleared of their 30% gains.

damn. champers back in fridge. Below my 4.47p needed!

pickedpeck - hugely significant, that. I'd come to that way of thinking of late - they hold enough cards, and macro supportive enough, to get Araguaia financed without Vermelho. We have all this to look forward to again in a future year.

How they protect Vermelho from equity dilution - we will see! But agreed, huge result. Each of Araguaia and Vermelho in due course could be £500 mcap so with modest shares in issue, who knows. 40-50p target in years to come.

I became a millionaire at 8.01 this morning. champers for breakfast today!

I hope you are right. None of my calculations had us with minimal dilution (I always worked on 2-2.5bn shares). The potential sp here in good time, if we don't have much equity dilution is just unreal. Still to stay grounded I am very happy with 2-2.5bn shares, we might be able to see 10p finance complete (as a minimum) and then nickel and build complete bringing the upside. Plus vermelho of course. Very happy to sit at 10p next year!

imagine 50% royalty 50% equity for remainder (at any decent premium) and we're laughing. Hardly any dilution is just about possible here. We will be higher SP by end of today for sure. How high? I think djryan's initial 7p looks a target for me!

Yes I posted here and on twitter that the stated $65-85m risk appetite per bank suggested greater than 60-65% debt ratio looked on. Very happy it turned out to be the case - the board delivered! Now depending on royalty/equity mix my target of 2.5bn shares (or less) looks very doable. Well done the patient holders (pats self on back). And an excellent delivery by the BOD.

Start of build slightly later than I hoped but the terms are more important (to me at least) than precise timing. Gla.

I don't know other juniors in the Nickel space sitting on 3.5 million tons of lowest quartile cost, permitted, 2-4 years from production so my research tells me we will get sold at some point ahead of or into the next nickel cycle. How much for? Don't know but well north of £50m mcap. When? In a timeframe I am happy to wait for! GLA.

like others I'm getting a bit restless - not for an immediate payout in my case but for news of progress towards the goal. When we consider that the DFS for Araguaia came out nearly 2 years ago now you realise investing in miners is to play the long game. I console myself with the fact that if the BOD is quiet, it means the progress is price sensitive and not yet communicable, not that there is no progress. I guess these ~$0.5bn finance deals take a while to thrash out.

in the meantime all you can do is stay patient (and accumulate if confident). I will add small tranche at each month boundary while the shareprice is under 4p, perhaps also if under 5p. How many more months where that holds? A couple at most hopefully.

Nice to see macro starting to turn positive. Hopefully the run in Q3 that we need to get it over the line. GLA

Sometimes I struggle to understand how we came by Vermelho and how it doesnt (yet) feature in our valuation. 100% it is the better asset - better grade, close to infrastructure, can go either route, has had more money spent quantifying the resource. A year or two behind but make no mistake Vermelho will be the reason Horizonte is acquired one day and at significant premium. All IMHO.

Not a fan of hpal it is fair to say Selby. I have no expertise here I guess its tricky. Hopefully the vermelho partner is a proven player with that particular technology if thats the route it goes - we will have better recognition in thqt scenario. I am guessing the HZM BOD dont really want to take hpal on without a partner.

When I listened to JM arguing / defending hpal wrt Horizonte he did mention that many of the cost overrun factors in other projects wouldnt apply to Horizonte. They were caused by inadequate infrastructure etc for which Vermelho is well supplied. Certainly the Vermelho build cost was pitched at the lower end of the hpal scale but then production at least initially according to the pfs is relatively modest.

I still think what will happen with Vermelho will depend very much who partners. Will it go ferro or sulphate, and just how big a mine is built. So many options.

I really thought we'd be testing 4p here when Nickel broke $14k but not yet it seems. Oh well there's the rest of August. Then September. Seems a long old time since we were consistently stationed between 4 and 5p. Here's hoping we get there soon again.

ok I got it wrong. Maybe we will test 15000 today!

might be testing $15k tomorrow at this rate :) It will probably have a breather but a good sign nonetheless!

If nothing happens (at all) to Vermelho until Araguaia gets to production then we are being setup for a total sale IMO. Hopefully if we are going down that route it happens even sooner, but I'll happily take total sale on Araguaia production 2022-23.

In that sense, no progress on Vermelho in 2021 can be read as a positive. So many positive outcomes here.

FWIW I've come to the conclusion Araguaia is financable in and of itself. I don't think they need Vermelho. How they protect Vermelho from being diluted I don't know.

If that is what happens, I see three potential substantial re-rates as follows:
- 2020 finance complete (7-10p+)
- 2021 Vermelho JV announced (10-15p+) (why hang around? Surely plenty of willing partners. But if not needed for Araguaia thrash out best deal etc)
- 2022 end Araguaia enters production, Nickel strengthening (15-20p)+

I don't think it will be a straight line, obviously, but I think there is a good chance that the 'dead time' between finance complete and ready to produce might be filled by news around Vermelho therefore there are potential gains here to be made in each of the next 3 years.

GLA