Member Info for wasarunner

We are 'flattening the curve' on inventory. Hopefully it can start decreasing at some point!

yes looks more convincing break this time. Onwards and upwards. $15k next target! At which point and given the Real devaluation we are printing money at Araguaia.

The presentation referenced 5 commercial banks prepared to lend $65-85m each. I assumed this was the 5x Tier 1 International banks (as there are 5 of these on the same slide).

Taking the lowest amount they were prepared to lend gives me $325m which is 73% of $443m required for the project. And that doesn't factor in the Brazilian banks or Export Credit Agencies.

I know it is in practice more complicated than this (it will be syndicated and with a lead or whatever) but I took the fact that individually, sum of parts debt being easily above the 60-65% total debt ratio as being a very positive sign. Hopefully, the BOD are busy making this number as big as possible so the equity can be as small as possible.

yeah I was hoping for 1% of co post dilution but that would involve around 2.3bn shares, I probably don't have enough - maybe Craigieboy will end up with 1%+. But not fussed, 0.8 or 0.9% of $3bn NPV is still really nice and that's how people should see it - this has still easily 5-10x upside from current value but the only way to unlock that value is to raise capital to build the mines which will be at least part financed by new equity.

I still like the fact that the combined risk appetite in the last presentation of banks was around 80-85% of to total finance cost required. There is a good chance here that more can be raised as debt than envisaged, and I also think parties will be willing to take on other forms of financing (royalty/streaming) so with fingers crossed the equity will protect existing holders and not dilute _too_ much. Everyone has their preferred threshold. I will be really really happy with less than 2.5bn shares in issue. GLA

Absolutely. I can tolerate a 50% dilution (double the shares) sits comfortably as we have $3bn NPV across Araguaia+Vermelho at Nickel $16.5k/t

https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/araguaia_project/
https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/vermelho_project/

Some dilution and a pile of debt still gives lots and lots of upside to $3bn NPV, which is what we are all here for. From £50m mcap area presently. GLA

My calcs, again using a bit of rounding to keep it simple. But you get the gist.

£100m per annum divi is payable on $4-5k/t retained profit (conservative) on 29kt production (Araguaia Phase1+Phase2). It doesn't need the nickel price to be too high, but lets assume the rest goes on pesky taxes, capital paybacks, and lets give him his dues, we'll even pay JM and team a healthy salary for making us rich. 29000 x 4/5000 / 1.3 (gbp/usd)

Then I assume worst case dilution 3bn shares. I don't think it can get worse. Will probably be much better but lets go with 3bn - that's an issue of roughly the number of shares we have now, again, for financing plus or minus options.

And I still end up with a 3.3p dividend on the share. Just to put that into context, it is 10% less than todays shareprice.

That confirms to me we are still undervalued. Literally nothing in the calculation above for Vermelho. I will hold until Araguaia Phase 2 complete and producing because I fully believe todays SP is a very realistic dividend in years to come after that. GLA.

13,987.50
Looks like we had another bash at $14k overnight. Third time lucky hopefully. GLA

back over 13800. Ready for another assault on 14000? Still looks underpriced relative to copper but I guess each moves on slightly different trajectories depending on inventory etc. 14k will probably be a tough nut to crack. I'm still pretty confident it should go in August. GLA

If we have a big seller would be interesting who it is. I can't see many candidates any more. JPM might have some dregs left maybe but unlikely, they must have been able to shift it by now. Cannacord I can't see selling as they've been buying recently. If it is LO (per Craig on the other board) they will have to declare at 3% so vs May 2020 holding they only have 1.1% to sell before they hit that number - which isn't that much really. Million and a half shares.

There just aren't that many IIs left, and the ones that are, we believe have a solid interest in remaining invested here. Teck, Glencore, Cannacord?

There could be somebody sub 3% I suppose offloading, if that is what is happening.

You can double your sp by setting up a subsidiary?! Somebody tell JM - we'll have the £100m mcap we need for financing! Sounds an easy way to get there to me.

We're valued at £15/t nickel. Bananas really. Well not even bananas - a metric tonne of the latter costs around a grand. So we're valued at less than bananas. GLA.

This was me and it was a buy:
28-Jul-20 15:16:23 3.69 217,315 Sell* 3.60 3.80 8,019

Amazing you can get them sub 3.7p to be honest. Not selling any till financing (at earliest).

Bit of portfolio juggling as I want to end up with a round 10m shares in ISA(s) after April 6 and still see this as a good price. Plenty of time in years to come to move other investments in, for now what matters is having as much as I can in there of Horizonte. Gamechanging news here can severely limit what can be moved in in times to come. If we do ever get to dividend, or TO, want it all in ISA/SIPP ideally except for what gets sold earlier here.

One thing for sure really hope we aren't moving 3m shares in April as we were this year. Hopefully that won't be possible next year, post financing.

I'm seeing day high 13,992.50 (did it test $14k?) now back to $13570! What's going on? Can it not find a direction or are traders in control?!
https://uk.investing.com/commodities/real-time-futures

Thanks Craig. I guess the story goes - by the time Araguaia P2 is there or thereabouts we should see some decent value from Vermelho - whether we are progressing it with partner or have farmed it out and retained an interest. Even if our retained stake is just half of what we have in Araguaia, Araguaia P1+P2+0.5x Vermelho P1 is a very serious proposition in 2025. There could be some very significant valuation here at that point and that is my target (unless we get taken out of course).

Anybody got a view on when it could be producing (earliest, if a partner got started right away). I kind of always imagine it might be a year behind Araguaia if proper effort was put into it. Does anybody have any other views or, has JM ever mentioned earliest timescales? My hope is partner is found quickly and it is progressed rapidly. If it could be a year, maximum 2 behind Araguaia, becoming a producer in the same timescale I am looking to hold my main stake (I am prepared to hold to Araguaia Phase 2 complete) would be ideal. I am imagining Araguaia phase 2 max 2 years after phase 1 complete so by start of 2025 ideally. Would have thought Vermelho could have Phase 1 up and running by then?

That said we need to get above 4p. There is something depressing about sitting below a shareprice we easily achieved 2 years ago (unpermitted, with no DFS) when we are around 2 months from financing and 2 years from production. 4p is a minimum really can Numis stop the selling please.

EB their CEO tells a good story! And north americans love an investment in a north american co. So many NYSE companies overvalued versus european peers (or not necessarily overvalued just higher valuations when compared like for like you can debate what true value is all day long of course).

Jury's out whether pumping your own company is a good thing. I quite like Horizonte's relatively low key approach it presents as a more serious and measured company but of course it isn't good if then gamechanging news isn't interpreted by the market as such. We have to assume the deals are being negotiated finalised at the moment here and they can't shout about it. I'm happy if this stays low, but on the gamechanging news (financing) rerates to true value. Works for me - I don't need a steady rise.

In any case I see rival firms valuations rising as a good thing. Eventually the market will catch up with what we've got here. Also the recent deals and M&A in the sector is all good it all adds to the momentum (and speculation that we will be a target). Once we start reaching nickel boom investors will be looking at producers or near producers and really the disconnect should happen then if you are still drilling holes and likely to miss the boom you shouldn't achieve similar valuations to what we have here. I don't follow the Canada Nickel story but I believe they are still many years from production.

I think if we want some hype here it needs to be created around Vermelho. A partner, then some fanfare trumpets, timescales would be good! Maybe a Tesla stake or even any other big auto would quickly change the perception of the company. Would certainly add more than £0 to the shareprice here. GLA

Closed just under 13800? WIll be interesting day tomorrow to see direction. 14k might be harder to break but after that we are not too far from 2020 high, so starts to get interesting there. We don't want it too high too soon, want those inventories to start running down from existing supply and new production to stall a while longer....

Would be most pleased with a 71% gap up on aim tomorrow morning. Here's hoping :-)