Member Info for wasarunner

I've got a couple of mates (you know who you are and you're probably reading this) who have been trying to trade elsewhere and accumulate funds to buy big on HZM. It isn't a bad strategy but it only works if Horizonte doesn't make a proper move (and I mean a move back out of the recent ranges - back to 5p and beyond).

The problem with the strategy is you just can't time it. Your trading share might be up 10% today but Horizonte is up 10% too. And Horizonte might add 10% tomorrow etc.

I think the closer we get to the stated financing window now, the riskier it is to be out for anybody who thinks 'it's a 7 bagger from 3.5p to 25p target). When it hits 4p you're down to a 6 bgger and when it hits 5p you're down to 5 bags. They announce an Orion deal like last time you're down to 3.5 bags.

So if you want your 7-10 bags in reasonable timeframes it is best to be onboard before we leave station. All IMO.

Yeah I just realised Peel was already an MM! I guess they might now have a bigger part to play so they may need to add to their float. Interesting stuff. Normally peters out but would be great to go on a proper run for once and break 4p.

Would the new broker Peel have to buy a few to create float (or is that not how it works?) Just wondering if the change of broker might be accounting for some of the previous sells and now buys? If for example Numis had to sell down their float last week.

and we're still under the lowest bid.

4.5 Everton1965
4.7 AnimalSpirit
4.8 600Thieves
4.9 wasarunner
5.5 chrismar
5.8 UncleJohn
5.9 owlo
6.0 ngnInv
6.1 Harkin100
6.4 Gower7465
6.9 pickedpeck
7.1 D220
7.5 Shellbay
8 Thechukkers
8.2 craigieboy1
8.8 Bungle99
9.5 Nthoftheriver
10 Harry_Ore
10.7 Caledonite
11 Flavourshaker
11.5 Finleyboy01
12.2 LUKE1444
12.8 ihowells
12.9 Scotsknight
13.3 Qualia
14.26 fulmar29
15 djryan777
16 westie50
16.5 Worzel7
17.5 silkworm
21 SeanT1967
23.1 DickDabout
25 FiremanSam1968
32 Ivornomoney
40 Luke2

Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos looking for cobalt.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-07/bill-gates-backed-company-to-hunt-for-cobalt-near-glencore-mine

They see value in it it bodes well. We've got some come and buy ours...

Scores on the doors
??? Dogberry101
??? AIMtodeath

4.5 Everton1965
4.7 AnimalSpirit
4.8 600Thieves
4.9 wasarunner
5.5 chrismar
5.8 UncleJohn
5.9 owlo
6.0 ngnInv
6.1 Harkin100
6.4 Gower7465
6.9 pickedpeck
7.1 D220
7.5 Shellbay
8 Thechukkers
8.2 craigieboy1
9.5 Nthoftheriver
10 Harry_Ore
10.7 Caledonite
11 Flavourshaker
11.5 Finleyboy01
12.2 LUKE1444
12.8 ihowells
12.9 Scotsknight
13.3 Qualia
14.26 fulmar29
15 djryan777
16 westie50
16.5 Worzel7
17.5 silkworm
21 SeanT1967
23.1 DickDabout
25 FiremanSam1968
32 Ivornomoney
40 Luke2

Everton, you've instantly taken the lead (in the sense that, your guess is the winner at present price!) But I hope you aren't the winner come mid Sept!

??? Dogberry101
??? AIMtodeath

4.5 Everton1965
4.7 AnimalSpirit
4.8 600Thieves
4.9 wasarunner
5.5 chrismar
5.8 UncleJohn
5.9 owlo
6.0 ngnInv
6.1 Harkin100
6.4 Gower7465
6.9 pickedpeck
7.1 D220
7.5 Shellbay
8 Thechukkers
8.2 craigieboy1
9.5 Nthoftheriver
10 Harry_Ore
10.7 Caledonite
11 Flavourshaker
11.5 Finleyboy01
12.8 ihowells
12.9 Scotsknight
13.3 Qualia
14.26 fulmar29
15 djryan777
16 westie50
16.5 Worzel7
17.5 silkworm
21 SeanT1967
23.1 DickDabout
25 FiremanSam1968
32 Ivornomoney
40 Luke2

Agree on absolute holdings and totally respect people who keep it private (and can you believe what you read on a forum anyway!) What I think helps people is when people state movements and why for e.g. my post the other day. If I say 'I held x before Orion, now I hold 1.5x post Orion at around the same average purchase price' which is what I said, it shows a bunch of info others might find useful:
- a. how the hell was it possible to add at long term average (am I a poor investor a priori) if the company has derisked by $25m cash injection from one of the biggest mine financiers in the world who normally don't venture too far from precious metals and
- b. shows confidence to do so

I also find it helpful when people give some context - e.g. portfolio weighting. I'd love to be in a position where I can hold 10 stocks like Horizonte but:
a. I can't research all the others with the same level and
b. for my goal - and this is entirely personal - I need the multiplier return that I believe Horizonte can deliver so I can't dilute that

High risk strategy but I state it upfront so people can make of it what they want. I would always caveat anybody's sound investment strategy should have plan B. Mine is to continue working and running a successful business for 15 years. If this plays out as I expect/hope I'm simply taking the leading '1' off that number! Everyone else will have their own goals, aims, ambitions, risk/reward and backgrounds. What is a big investment to some is a small investment to others etc.

I think what unites us all, and what is really useful about the board, is the info, opinion, and just generally views and interpretations of news and markets relevant to HZM, whether news from the co. or the wider politics / industry generally. I read this board daily too because it does contain a shedload of very useful info and some excellent posters. Thanks all.

Love how the 'holdings register' and the compo drew out the silent investors! Welcome guys. Once we are flying it will be great to compare notes on where we all think this is going.

If anyone wants to add their guess not already on. Closing price on 15th September, that's less than 2 months away. And hopefully one or more juicy RNS' before then from co.

??? Dogberry101
??? AIMtodeath

4.7 AnimalSpirit
4.8 600Thieves
4.9 wasarunner
5.5 chrismar
5.8 UncleJohn
5.9 owlo
6.0 ngnInv
6.1 Harkin100
6.4 Gower7465
6.9 pickedpeck
7.1 D220
7.5 Shellbay
8 Thechukkers
8.2 craigieboy1
9.5 Nthoftheriver
10 Harry_Ore
10.7 Caledonite
11 Flavourshaker
11.5 Finleyboy01
12.8 ihowells
12.9 Scotsknight
13.3 Qualia
14.26 fulmar29
15 djryan777
16 westie50
16.5 Worzel7
17.5 silkworm
21 SeanT1967
23.1 DickDabout
25 FiremanSam1968
32 Ivornomoney
40 Luke2

Longer term its noise if you dont believe Horizonte need higher sp to get finance done (personally I think they dont). Any number of things can trigger a pretty rapid upward rerate - substantial offtake/royalty, partner on vermelho or other company level jv which could all come before finance package. The bod are adept and (though it is hard) we need to be patient. My money is on quite sudden and big news here which will move us by more than people expect! Gla.

Indeed owlo and of course risk is part of the game. In return, they expect better than standard returns, which is very reassuring to us because issuing $25m capital for 2.25% of production (and expecting a decent return on that sum!) means they value our business highly, I think over $1bn already if you scale it up.

They will get it wrong sometimes but if they make good returns on 9/10 businesses they invest in they will do well. Kind of how a disciplined investor in AIM stocks (unlike me) should invest of course.

Luke, they seem to target investment very carefully, and then invest reasonably chunky % of a project (sometimes 100%). That's just what we want here, and no doubt they have half an eye on Vermelho, a finance partner who can engage across the piste in terms of ongoing royalties, equity etc who can scale their investment at different points in the lifecycle. A very good partner to have onboard and hopefully their risk appetite is still there for Nickel with a longer view - certainly by investing in the royalty they were looking at a long production span for payback and are here for the term (unlike, it turned out, JPM for instance). GLA

good spot! apologies. More cash left in the coffers of Orion Mine Finance then!

Bugger - see the chancellor has announced a review of CGT. That changes my position to - hope it is still this price come April 6th. Need to hide another 3m shares from the old CGT man. So JM if you are reading this, please take your time mate on those financing discussions. GLA.

Midway through Q3 is mid August (and not mid September as I first surmised in the compo!) So a little ways to go. I think tail end of August and September will be interesting on news timing. I'm not expecting anything much earlier than then.

Wondering whether they might lead with some further royalty/offtake from Orion (maybe something more meaty than the initial investment) to get the ball rolling into the main financing package. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that somebody else would pay royalty or offtake in addition to Orion but maybe Orion see plenty of scope there (it is pretty risk off to them with plenty of upside in rising nickel market) to make the main part of their investment.

For now seems pretty stable at $13.5k+. Although it swings a few hundred $ a day it could pretty easily hit $14k in one or two trading days. Whether $14k/t becomes a ceiling for now remains to be seen. I think it will get tested in any case.

Araguaia is more than profitable at $14k/t (indeed when I spoke to the FD he confirmed at $14k/t they could build phase 2 from FCF). And that is before currency devaluation which would improve FCF. So all in all 'good enough' to get the financing done and no doubt parties will be looking forward to the productions years 2023-25+ and what the nickel price forecast holds there.

Good stuff Rover62, as nailed on as it can be on stocks that this will work out for you. As I put in another post I don't think Horizonte should really be on AIM - we should be moving out of the junior resource space soon as we transition to producer with the Tier1 resources. GLA.

https://www.miningmx.com/trending/42598-orion-minerals-buys-out-minority-shareholders-in-jacomynspan-nickel-copper-resource/

>> Has the world forgotten us.
Normally means buying opportunity for those still able to accumulate!
>> No trades.
Good - JPM out?!
>> No chat.
Everything has been discussed! We know where nickel is going. We know where EV is going. We have a good idea where and when financing is going. Buy now at 3.5p for 7-10p+ this year and 20-30p+ in 3 years time!

I'm fully in (though I keep saying that then buying more) so hence the lack of trades on my part! Now 96.5% of my portfolio.
GLA

It's probably a bit complicated to work it out now but I probably have a similar average purchase price today, than I had in August 19. Basically IMO that's wrong. Orion coming onboard then was a huge de-risking step (as was the Vermelho PFS incidentally) and we should have rerated inbetween.