Member Info for wasarunner

Woodster - still not a bad return.

It's interesting because my decision to sell this morning is with half an eye on what M&A does to a share. EUA has risen to the £300m+mcap on speculation a deal will be done. It may well be done and it may well net more than the current value.

If we had so much as a _whiff_ of M&A on Horizonte easy 20-30p same day for £300-£500m mcap. You just know at that point a proven resource of $50bn will not be sold for less. And that could happen any day really.

But I still think holding here is the key I will not sell on financing. Wait for M&A or production for 30p+ target. This was always the big share for me - the sweet spot for deficit is mid decade (perhaps slightly earlier for spike driven by battery demand if that now accelerates to Covid). I will be super patient with Horizonte. That said would like the board to get on with the financing now I'm fully invested of course :)

yes mostly listed as sells, per the convo yesterday.
In the past I would have placed a bigger trade but I'm wise to the fact now you get better prices buying in smaller chunks. Still, the 3.52p shares ran out and I paid 3.68p on the last tranche.

An unexpected bonus really. I expected to go into the financing with the ~22m shares inc family, now up over 23m shares. If I get any more windfalls I'll overtake craigieboy.

Mopped up the 3.52p anyway....

My trades aren't listed yet (on this site anyway). I bought 5x250k and a trade for 134841 shares.

Right that's me crystallised my EUA and added 1384841 HZM (plus some ACP and PERE). Mustn't grumble. Although EUA may have much more legs to go, they would need to get a multi billion dollar deal for me to return the same there from current price to what HZM have here. And Horizonte have $50bn resource+.

I can't complain - when I bought EUA Horizonte was around the same sp (mid 3p) and I was trying with a small pot to 'trade the difference' moving between the two as they ebbed and flowed. Well Horizonte is still 3.52p (most of my adds this morning) and EUA I sold around 12.5p so it has worked out just fine.

It probably means I might be able to take 1.5m shares off the table post financing we will see. Still don't see the same 'certainty' on an AIM share that we have here. My other smaller investments are probably riskier with possibly higher upside we will see! GLA.

Ive got some - enough for it to be intetesting. Intention was to buy Horizonte with any payout (plus a couple of smaller plays). Gla

Ditto ii and I've been happy with them. One of the attractions was the fixed fee in case the portfolio grew large. Across three sets of accounts (family) going on £1m valuation now so happy to be with ii and pretty decent service (so far!).

I see the fertilizer business might generate revenues worth $15m/y. Good. That justifies the current mcap of £50m.
Now can we have something priced into the mcap for the $50bn nickel and $4bn cobalt in the ground please?!

Liquidity is an interesting thing and not something I've ever had to consider purchasing on AIM as I never bought enough for it to be a concern. My point really with Horizonte is there are some big retail investors (with large-ish positions) and it wouldn't do to dump the shares on market even if we wanted to you wouldn't get good price. I have no concerns about this though because I see Horizonte being a £500m+ mcap company by the time I sell so offloading a few million quids worth at that time over a period of say 6 months really shouldn't be an issue. Especially if we have some solid II / funds buying at a point in the nickel cycle where we are considered a big player. All assuming we get that far and independent of course (which I still doubt). Never been an issue for me personally in the past (any really big positions I've held have been on FTSE 100 stocks generally) and don't expect it to be an issue here in years to come.

Thanks - can you see the positions on IG? What % of retail punters are long vs short on nickel?

I've been impressed with palladium maintaining a really solid price (we are at around 01/12/19 prices now I think) through the crisis, it being an industrial metal really. Also dollar printing should be good for commodities going forward and the rouble devaluing a bit against $ is probably good for a buyer too - lower production costs in Russia. Stronger $ against other world currencies is going to help my other investments too.

All in all I wouldn't say the macro backdrop at the moment should hinder the outcome here, but I'm not a macro expert by any means. China motoring on with its economy is good for us and I would be very very surprised if at least one of the serious players tabling a bid isn't coming from China.

AIM do you know if it trades on technicals? i.e. if we break a resistance does it move? I've never traded commodities directly...

in the runup to suspension there were huge trades going through. £100k+ at a time, many a day. The big boys were loading (this guy is probably one of them) and the writing was on the wall. I said it then! I guess we might find out where some of the other big trades went now we are at the business end of sale if holders have to declare. GLA. Sadly I'm not in the 1% club :(

The thing we have to remember is arguably Horizonte shouldn't be on AIM. It is because of where it is in the lifecycle pre-financing. The assets themselves could put us not just top 10 but knocking on top 5 nickel producers in the world. In 2018 Sumitomo were ranked 6th largest producer with 65kt. Vermelho+Araguaia+Serra Tapa on resource itself could easily produce more than that - indeed Horizonte's own plans have us over 50kt but add a major to Vermelho and could be a lot higher.

So arguably we shouldn't be on AIM and not arguably we shouldn't be valued at £50m mcap right now but there we are. For those scrabbling around for the last pennies to get onboard this train good luck to you. Financing is the last hurdle but Orion told us what we need to know here last year - they parted with $25m for a very small slice and investors like Orion look for many multiple returns when they invest in a project like this. That means they definitely value the whole project (or company) in the $bn mcap range if you extrapolate the figures.

Flavour - I started with the 6 fig goal 2 years ago here, last year I upped it to 7, now an outside chance of 8 (would need 50p area for me - but that is not completely out of the question if we look at Onca Puma, or indeed a strong production scenario in 5+ years time - with nickel $18-20k I can actually see £1-2bn mcap here). Not too greedy though 30p will do nicely indeed if and when it lands. There's a few on this board who think it will land by September 15th this year!!!

Dufry yes it is a good board no ramping really but it will change when this takes off. I think long term holders can still back and count their profits, let the rabble squabble on the boards at that point (will it won't it go up another penny etc is it overvalued etc). We've kept each other motivated through the 'lean' times. We have a fantastic opportunity here, a very honest and pretty transparent BOD, and if they say it will deliver finance (which is the last derisking step really) then I believe it. One thing is without doubt and that is nickel demand (and hopefully by extension price) in 3+ yrs time.

Incidentally I am here for 30p+ which I think is very achievable with Phase 2 Araguaia built, possibly even before if Vermelho is built concurrently. That's possible with 2.5-3bn shares because at full production in a strong nickel market we could be seeing pretax profits here in the £0.3bn-0.5bn range easily. That easily supports mcap £1bn+. All IMO.

dufry, I may be wrong, but because the nickel deposit is so VAST and Horizonte is a junior with modest means, the amount of time to extract it is long and the size of mine is modest (by Majors standards). So yes 20p still undervalues it and at full production of Araguaia and Vermelho if Horizonte retained 100% (which they probably won't with Vermelho) 50p-100p might be much more reasonable. I guess 20p is a range forecast for initial or pre-production which sits about right with me, assuming we get 2.5bn shares that would give a £500m mcap which I think Araguaia at initial production + factor a bit for Vermelho would be reaosonable.

If Vermelho takes off (accelerated / partner / big build) I expect much more than 20p.

Just my thoughts I may be wrong.

threatening $13k/t again. Would be nice to break it with conviction this time then set a floor and rise from there.

China