Member Info for wasarunner

$2bn at todays cobalt price then. Not bad. 0 of which is currently baked into the sp!

Have to remind myself we are still priced below (eventual) dividend from Araguaia.

£100m distribution on 2.5bn shares = 4p. This is easily achievable from Araguaia 29kt/yr with nickel $16-18k after C1 costs, taxes etc. I expect both the nickel price and the production to support this by 2025 and I am very happy to wait that long. On my holding - around £880k/yr divi.

That's without Vermelho.

Makes 3.5p today very, very cheap indeed on a 5yr view.

Welcome fpn2. It is sure a great investment here but be careful with your positions/research I think it is a rare find indeed (and for aim substantially derisked by the orion investment) but in a couple of weeks you are unlikely to have been able to digest everything there is to know here. I have about 93% of my portfolio here but that took two years of research and a meeting with one of the BOD to get to with enough confidence so I cant discourage you from investing here but it always pays to research it well :-) welcome on board in any case

Thanks WaitingRoom and AIMtodeath - had to have a chuckle there. I have £2.5k in ODX at 69.5p - shows the kind of trader I am! It is a sideline really to the big item here of course but one likes to dabble in stocks that actually move up and down but I'm a poor trader at best so will stick to investing for the most part.

Not long to wait here now I don't think. I've satisfied myself that there will be enough interest here even in the current market conditions to get the deal done at some price, hopefully a reasonably good deal for shareholders, I think with the 2 assets and the interest already expressed by the likes of Orion the BOD have a very strong hand so I am relaxed. I like others want this done - not for the financing or realy the SP gain at that time but for production, really see the big money to be producing at the earliest point where nickel is strong again and the rate we are going we could hit it beautifully with Araguaia in 2023 and perhaps even (outside chance?) Vermelho at or just behind it if we get a partner. Horizonte will be printing money faster than the BOE with Nickel $16-18k+/t with both mines producing. And that is saying something!

Apologies if this has already been discussed but this just caught my eye I didn't really read it properly when the RNS first landed (kind of focussed on the not being delisted bit at the time!)

"Between 1994 and 2000 he developed Flemings' corporate finance team in South Africa, which advised on a wide range of mining sector M&A transactions in South Africa and London."

Anybody reading anything into this or not at this stage? Would you hire somebody with extensive M&A experience between London and South Africa if, say, you had a UK registered company which was doing a deal with an SA based company? Or is that too narrow a view. Could we still be doing a Russian deal with NN or a deal with a Chinese buyer?

Also, we believe banks are prepared to lend circa $300m , lets call this bit in the bag. Orion are prepared to pay $25m for 2.25% of production of one of two lines on one of two mines. What's the actual value of the asset right now? Huge. It certainly isn't reflected in the mcap.

I really believe you wouldn't sell this anywhere south of £500m right now. That's about 30p. Undeveloped (but fully permitted and just about financed). So if a buyer wants it that is the kind of number they will be paying (or more) IMO.

>>And here we are at sub £50m mcap.
Not for long. (although agreed, it feels like it has been a long time getting here).

I found it slightly odd that China (a country) would liken itself to a continent (Africa) but when I checked some stats it is really staggering! China has on some measure around 5x GDP of Africa with roughly similar population as the continent. (I will confess my probably highly ignorance of geography here I didn't know which if any middle east countries are considered in Africa vs Asia). That is astonishing mainly because in 1980 China had a lower per capita GDP than almost all african nations.

There is going to be some very interesting/worrying geopolitical tension now as China attempts to exert economic influence around the world (probably to maintain position) in the wake of the pandemic. It is hard to know how that affects Brazil going forward given that Brazil and China were already meant to be developing closer economic cooperation. Does it mean the globe will become more polarized (in or out of trade with China) or can it be papered over?

every little helps :-) hold onto your non cash assets!

AJsWheels you sound like the least newby newby I've come across! But welcome anyway :)

I check in here from time to time I believe some warrants may have lapsed? If it is Dmitry's I don't think he cares, if he can see the sheer size of deal being penned he is hopefully very happy with just the 20% of it (or thereabouts holdings he has here). There is after all only so much money one can spend. FWIW I think the board are holding for big money, for small money they could probably have divested any time and pretty quickly.

I'm very confident of a pretty good outcome here, how good is less material right now than what to do with the proceeds which depends very much on when they land. I think CV will almost certainly have stalled things somewhat (especially on any cross border deals with what is going on, and lets face it there must be a pretty good chance there is some cross border negotiation going on). But CV won't be with us forever, industry globally is starting to get back on its feet and of course, these deals are all forward looking so there will be impetus to getting it done!

GLA. I would be sitting on my holding right now whether or not we were suspended and wouldn't be selling in any scenario.

- Q3 is 2 weeks away
- china producing lots of steel
- car makers EV accelerating
- financing on track we are told

Just got to be patient and block out the noise. And for those fortunate enough to have funds add at current levels. We're back to my average and I would dearly like to add and will do so if other things work out!

nice to see it back above $13k/t. Onwards and upwards.

In fact it makes complete sense that funds would buy in above £100m. It means they are buying post financing and financing reduces their risk (but also their return). I think it will be an interesting time hopefully post financing the institutional interest will soak up the heavy PI selling.

I'm really happy for them to invest heavily once we're at £100m as long as I invested heavily first in the £30m-£50m mcap range! Reality is we take a greater risk and we get a greater return, just how the average PI likes to play it I believe!

westie - neither did I but JM did mention the £100m figure on calls as a place to get to with favourable market conditions. My thinking now is that was plan a. They have probably had to go plan b. None of the news got them to £100m, not the Orion news, not Vermelho PFS, and now the wider economy has tanked so b. it is. I don't know what plan b. is but it must be going on track per the comms and I wonder if it may or may not involve Vermelho which would be very interesting.

Covid on the ground situation aside, financing is the last key derisking step because there is absolutely no way Araguaia doesn't make money in any kind of nickel market pretty much.

Flavourshaker my guess is they needed some money for the pre build works (like hiring a pretty expensive build manager - I notice he was appointed after the Orion deal was announced, maybe he had been headhunted but Horizonte wanted the cash on board before putting pen to contract) and to allow runway for financing. The interesting conundrum it presents now is that Orions money mean Horizonte can stall further discussions on further financing with Orion because they have the cushion! But it also means Horizonte can stall discussions with the other majors on the register at their leisure so it potentially buys Orion more negotiating power at the table too. It is all very interesting and hopefully Simon Retter and Jeremy Martin can deliver 'the goods' being a very palatable financing package which doesn't do too much damage to the patiently invested PI with a substantial (to each of them as individually) holding....!

I've come to the conclusion they don't need the mcap to be £100m at financing. That's not to say the shareprice and mcap won't rise into financing or that news wont land before the I just can no longer see one being a precondition of the other based on the facts as they are presented to us - that the progress on financing has not been materially affected by Covid, and that we are on track for Q3/early Q4, with the mcap less than £50m. That tells me they are confident financing will happen whatever the shareprice.

In all likelihood the banks took a long time (they are banks at the end of the day) but that seems in the bag now. What remains to sort is the rest. For my money they have plenty of interest, it is all about negotiating best terms and they have allowed sufficient time for that to align nicely with being able to actually build something in CV infested Brazil. Perhaps bought more time to negotiate on Vermelho but in any case I no longer see the £100m as a precondition - which raises the interesting scenario that the news could land literally any day and you wouldn't know (you can't guess when the news will land from the mcap).

Interesting times. Also the question is does todays Nickel price matter. Probably not. We are looking at (hopefully) full production in 2023 so what matters is the nickel price then. As long as there is reasonable consensus around that then we should be fine.

A final point - it will have taken a full 2 years for financing to complete from DFS published. If other nickel producers which are potentially lower quartile take the same time to finance (I am not saying they would, but if they do) then they'd better get a shift on to be producing by the time the deficit is going in earnest.

I am pretty relaxed now I think financing is nailed on, the precise terms will be interesting, and we will be producing hopefully in 2023 which is a year later than I envisaged but I have already adjusted my horizons for it.

Even the Saudi's are looking to diversify the sovereign fund away from Oil (didn't Elon Musk have a conversation with them about taking Tesla private at one point?) and some of their recent investments (Uber and WeWork) aren't working out so well for them. Hopefully they can start investing some of their $320bn our way sometime soon as we have the fuel of the future underground in Brazil.

Two sides to it I guess I prefer to look at the investment side. Oil investment needs higher oil prices to be profitable so as oil becomes less profitable investment which would normally go to Oil goes elsewhere. Norways sovereign wealth fund and others etc. But yes it makes running on oil cheaper in the medium term (until governments plug the gap with tax!) I actually think sustained low price will hasten the demise, as will oil price wars trying to price out higher cost producers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53047894

hopefully cheaper oil means more expensive nickel!

600Thieves I have one theory on that. I might be wrong. It could play in many different ways.

Vermelho might be what gets the company sold - if class 1/sulphate is where the future demand/premium is then this will be our crown jewel. How to get a good price for it (or the whole company?) Make sure we are producing by then so we don't have to take the first offer.

If (and this is a big if) the company is being set up for sale then I think the strategy of develop Araguaia without encumbering Vermelho, and just leave Vermelho as a dangling carrot for a potential buyer is a good strategy. Perhaps the best strategy.

Of course another strategy is to have the prospective buyer buy into Vermelho now. That's why the next few months are so interesting - will anything happen with Vermelho, and which miners increase their holdings in Horizonte overall through the equity portion.

I'm happy with either strategy I think not having to sacrifice any of Vermelho to develop Araguaia would be a big coup and potentially lead to the biggest return for existing shareholders down the line but equally happy to have Vermelho accelerated now, on the understanding that we lose some % but get the jam earlier.

I still think on balance of probabilities we will be sold any time in the next 3 years and Vermelho is probably the key to that so how the board play it - we will see.