Member Info for wasarunner

4.30pm 15th September is 11 trading days in with 11 remaining of the middle month of Q3. It is 15 weeks (a fraction over 3 months) from COB yesterday on the LSE. For reference I believe yesterdays close was 3.625p.

If people are game we could have a guess at the SP on that day and make a list. Because I'm a pessimistic sod generally, here is my entry:

4.9p wasarunner

Only rule is you can't pick something that has already been picked? Or shall we allow it open to suggestions.

I get that the trade was placed in one transaction but if it executes in many stages at certain points JPMs effective holdings are at a newly reported level at part executed. So they should report. I think.

Ivor I don't get it either really - I was under the impression (but can't find a reference) maybe foreign entities such as JPM may have less reporting requirements on a given stock than a UK based entity (even though the stock is a UK listed stock). Somebody mentioned that on one of the boards. I could then understand if say they only had to report at 3% and 10% but not every 1% or something.

Anyway my assumption here was it just isn't strictly enforced, otherwise as you say, how can they not report it. It can't be market transparent to sell something over several months where the transparency rule is there to give all market participants access to that info.

here come the traders again on cue selling as we approach 4p. Fair play to them but I do hope they are out the day we move to 10p is all I'm saying....it will be nice to net multiples of their cumulative gain on that day in one transaction.

touching $13k area will it go. Could pop above today.

My hope is banks agree to roll the loans potentially (or extend) at the point we are ready to build Stage 2. That accelerates Stage 2 - banks are fully derisked by then as we are producing, they get slightly more interest for their money over term and we get to build Stage 2 as quickly as possible from an engineering standpoint. We go from 0t to 29kt in the least possible time. Being a 29kt producer in a strong nickel market let the bidders come but the price then will be bn+ (don't really care if $ or £).

Hi Nthoftheriver yes I guess not much discussion around loan rates here but for me that becomes moot if we see the kick ass Nickel scenarios predicted by the time we're online. By some calcs Araguaia can pay down the debt in about a year and a half if it works out that way! So interest rates become less important. Also I expect not all of the loan has to be drawn down up front so the term you are running for includes a lot of production time to pay it down.

The credit export agencies is interesting because my understanding is they fund on longer term and lower interest rate. The long term is attractive because in years 3+4 instead of paying down loan we can be building Stage 2 with the cashflow. Obviously the initial focus is Araguaia phase 1 but for my money the real value to be had here is in getting Phase 2 done pronto (if we are still independent). We then become a cash generating monster and can pay down the debt without really any hastle whatsoever.

feeling quite pleased with my buy at 3.0995p the other day. Would happily accept less volatility here though and a steady rise up to say 6-7p range in coming weeks/month or two.

I only state 7p because for me it is 'base case' and it works with <50% additional shares - i.e. 1.5x what we have now. It assumes some further offtake/royalty. I do a 'worst case' calc like this just so I am happy my investment/average is safe. I am of course hoping for a higher raise price and a lower proportion of equity. It should be very achievable with the 2 assets to play. If Horizonte can get Araguaia financed without encumbering Vermelho and without significant company level dilution all the better - hopefully it is possible.

My actual calcs are done at 10p and look rather good (when looking at future cash flows/dividend scenarios).

An interesting thing I've spotted in the presentation is we have 5x tier 1 banks all prepared to commit $65-$85m. Now I do understand this will be a syndicated loan but even the lowest end gives 73% of capex covered if all banks loan to their appetite. Does this mean their loans will be capped by the debt ratio and not their appetite? Otherwise we could end up with higher % debt than the target 60-65%. That's without the Brazilian banks or Credit Export Agencies.

Anyway lots of ways this can go and agree with posters absolutely no way todays shareprice is going to factor in the raise price because if that was the only way it could get financed you might as well put the assets on the market at 300m (gbp or usd) and invite highest bidders. I think in a firesale scenario 15-20p is minimum really. So you wouldn't really want to issue (much) equity anywhere less than the 7-10p range against that.

I think to sleep easy at night you have to do the worst case scenario estimate. For me this is equity raise at 7p vs firesale at 15p. Because both are very comfortably above my average (now around 3.2p) I sleep easy. GLA.

fulmar, agree with the sentiment, of course it is important to distinguish the Chinese people themselves who are blameless and the govt who bungled the coverup (whether it originated in a lab or on a market). Ironically I think any economic fallout ramifications of trade with China and the west could lead countries to scramble to secure supply - both stainless steel and batteries for which China is such a globally dominant producer. Geo diversification will play well for Horizonte in both markets. GLA. (Personally on the China question I'd like to see a deep investigation into the root cause but is that ever likely to happen?!)

Anybody think we might get an offer pre financing? The reason I say that is this - once financing is agreed and big IIs are locked in with their big holdings purchased at a higher price - they just aren't going to give that away cheap in the future, vs their share of the production. Once Orion have a 'wedge' of this in whatever shape they are coming into it, it will be more expensive for Teck or Glencore to buy it. At the moment, Teck or Glencore don't have to buy Orion out, they have to do a deal that is mutually agreeable and agreeable to the wider shareholder base which now consist more of PIs (Griffiths/City Financial/JPM gone) and PIs will take less jam now than more jam tomorrow, tends to be the way.

I don't know if majors like buying at this stage but they are guaranteed it cheaper right now, and possibly in light of the current macro problems even more so, than ever again. Post financing Horizonte's sale prices increases dramatically I would think.

pickedpeck - agree, when I've done the sums it looks doable in the 7-10p range and that fits your analysis nicely - JM wanted the mcap to be £100m which is conveniently close to 7p and is probably and hopefully the starting point for negotiation, then the existing IIs who have paid more throw their hats in the ring and state their numbers. It must be a delicate negotiation but for my money still 7-10p range looks most likely I would be surprised if we get more.

It must be a very odd situation - Orion wanting an entry and would probably take a good chunk of equity perhaps at premium above the existing holdings - if they paid equivalent of 10p or similar for a seat at the table, they would perhaps be willing to part with a bigger number per share for a much bigger slice. But on the other hand, Teck and Glencore if they want to maintain their position not only as % holders, but with an eye on the 'long' game, don't want Orion to take more than they could potentially buy out down the line. A very interesting situation.

There's an outside chance this is a sellers market (obviously macro isn't supportive but the initial Orion deal bodes well). If so it could be that the board are holding for best price rather than just agreeing the first thing that everyone can agree on. At the end of the day their job is to protect and reward shareholders (of which we are some, obviously the IIs also) by not financing it on the cheap.

I take comfort from the fact that 7-10p would get the job done without massive dilution if all the other parts (debt and offtake) can play their part. We would be in a much worse situation if say we needed 15-20p to get it done.

Also would love to know what % of JPM shares went to institutions and how much was mopped up by PIs. There is definitely a lot of PIs in this stock on an accumulate strategy (me included), we've seen City Financial shares all find a home, now JPM, and the only Cannacord have added as far as I know on the II side. I know some PIs will trade the swings but I think the majority are here for the financing (at least) and the closer we get to financing the less likely they are to sell and take profit -> all points to shareprice rising.

I think Horizonte's 'FOMO' moment will come - what we know is JM would like the shareprice at 7p for financing in 3-4 months and we are at 3.5p now. To earn his bread he has to make that happen so we can expect newsflow to start anytime soon IMO.

Interesting share HZM on the trading volumes side - today we are up on relatively light volume (I have sometimes bought more than the combined volume so far today myself on a morning). Once there is no background seller - and lets face it it looks like we've pretty much had 1 maybe 2 IIs selling since the Orion news, and once the profit takers are out this really is very illiquid for a £50m mcap co so once we see interest it moves up fast.

Just a preview of what will happen on news I think. The shares are pretty tightly held I think it will be hard to buy when news lands and the rises will be rapid as MMs won't be able to fill orders.

Always best to share successes with SO's I find. We generally talk when the shares are in the ascendancy, tend to chat less when they tank. No need to cause unnecessary worry and all that :-)

I was happy to add some again this morning (small buy for me). What with financing pencilled for Q3 and Q3 being only 5 weeks away :)

this is overdone now.

Yes the only flipside is if you part sell Vermelho now you won't get as good a deal as you would in a couple of years time. But it's not all about total return, there is a timeline - everyone has one - so it is a balancing act.

There is also the slight complication that if the endgame is sale, bringing on a partner for Vermelho might limit the options unless the senior partner is where you want to sell to. But I'm sure deals can be done and maybe that's what the board are figuring out - half an eye on the long game, as it were :)

Nthoftheriver there is also benefit of a partner for Vermelho now than later. If partner now, gets on with all the permitting and building out a DFS we see an income stream earlier years than we would if we sit on Vermelho and take a couple of years to find a partner. As ever it is juggling between best total returns but also being mindful of timelines and macro situation. No point getting a duff deal done on Araguaia now and waiting for years to monetise Vermelho. If the two can be combined.

Vermelho will of course come into its own once the real nickel shortage looms - 2025+, esp in the battery space. But I have absolutely no problem with Vermelho generating income to us (existing shareholders) well before then if they can find a partner who can run fast with it right now off the bat.

Could well be that the goal was to try and finance Araguaia _without_ touching Vermelho for time being even up to Feb. The present situation may have hit that plan and there is a chance the company have had to change tack and perhaps 'accelerate' some Vermelho discussions - perhaps even actively pursuing inbound enquiries instead of batting them back.

I think yesterdays conf gives me a slightly higher % that Vermelho will be in the mix. I don't really mind that at all as I still think for releasing shareholder value reasonably swiftly, especially in a poor macro environment, they have to use all levers they can and Vermelho is a mighty big lever if there is interest. Would I rather we parted with some of Vermelho or stalled for 5 years? No brainer. If Vermelho is what it takes, get a deal on it that makes Araguaia happen to get us from explorer to producer. Not saying it is a given, but more likely I would say after last night and certainly there is now a bit of time to negotiate with parties if that is what the board are thinking, to end of Q3.