Member Info for wasarunner

There is one scenario I can think of on the JPM stake which works, where they can announce in one TR1 and we don't see further TR1s on the buy side. That is that they distributed, off market/private sales, to new buyers who individually didn't go above 3% (possible exception of Cannacord who went from 9-10% threshold).

Seems unlikely though.

Hi 600Thieves I see it really as two distinct questions so it isn't clear which one Horizonte are answering:

- who owns the 25.6%? At the moment (this is just my view) it looks a lot like Teck+Cannacord+Directors adds up to the right number - should the company confirm it? Do they need to break this number down for us? I don't know of the requirement on them to do so.
- secondly has there been a further change over and above what is currently listed in the significant shareholders as a result of the JPM holding change. The company can easily argue (and seems to be the case in the reply to nutkins) that if they haven't been notified, they can't release any update. It seems a bit odd that the JPM news is now a week old - it suggests either JPM weren't diligent in reporting their sells (I don't believe this and also I believe it would have had a hugely detrimental impact on the SP at a time into the TR1 announcement when the SP was generally rising) or, the buyer of the shares has not yet notified (more likely in my opinion).

But I agree more generally I think the company are in the middle of sorting the big ticket item and perhaps some of this housekeeping is secondary at the moment. Still hoping for a TR1 on who took the JPM stake though.

I'm also half expecting to see further big late reported buy if Friday was a loading period for an II (again maybe Cannacord).

Clear out the traders at each level and onwards and upwards we go. When the North American buyers appear I think the sells will be mopped up. I can easily see us settingling below 5p pre finance. 5p will be a tough nut to crack because with the exception of the Orion news since I have been following Horizonte, we haven't been above it. But one step at a time rome wasn't built in a day etc. Hard to believe we were sub 2p not long ago.

I believe we are at the business end of finance and things will be revealed as and when. I dont mind finding out if Teck are going to buy us in 3 weeks time or now, doesnt really matter. It will be interesting today, on Friday there was clear buying pressure in the afternoon, whether that resumes today. North American buyers perhaps. Gla.

In the meantime 4p looks about to go. That is a welcome development, I believe we have been sub 4p for 6 months+ now.

Maybe, I would take 20p (it is worth more) mainly because it is jam today and buying in the recession would double your money pretty much anything you buy as long as it survives. Dont see them accepting 10p personally.

Ie cannacord+teck+directors looks about right. For now.

I miscounted directir holdings I thought jm had 20m shares not 2m so assumed 1.5% not 0.15%. If so and if 10% threshold is a thing then probably correct to say the not in public hands is now in line with what is published on the significant holders list BUT:

- we dont know where 8.9% went but I expect to find out next week. Could be anywhere. Horizonte can claim not to know if they havent been notified and
- By the 10% rule if it is a new holder (like Orion) the 8.9% wont enter the not in public hands category as it doesnt make the 10% threshold.

So my take now is that Horizonte have updated the webpage to be self consistent and consistent with public info in the market BUT we have news to come, probably next week, on the jpm stake. Gla.

My theory on that posted last week was (not a banker btw) you would buy the jpm market off market at an agreed price, lets say for arguments sake the price you know the raise will be completed at. Jpm get say 10p for their shares now and exit. The thing that interests me about that scenario is it would mean the buyer has to be super confident that the raise is happening and finance will complete, and most likely also has to know the raise price so they can make sure they are pricing the jpm stake correctly and, for example, not overpaying. Given the proximity of the jpm holdings rns to the supposed financing complete stage I assume then that this is all done above board and with Horizonte involved in the negotiations. It is actually possible more than one party split the jpm stake perhaps all the participants of the raise.

I think what is clear now is the pjeces of the jigsaw are moving, we dont have a lot of clarity yet but perhaps that is coming, and maybe these developments in and of themselves at the moment are enough to drive some trading activity - as we all know markets move on anticipation of news not just news itself. If I was a betting man (which clearly I am to be invested) I would say 4p at a minimum will go next week.Actual holdings news and the move could be much more significant.

The rabbit I am looking for in the financing is some kind of deal on Vermelho in the mix. I think this would be doubly significant not only because it might complete Araguaia financing at attractive prices (i.e. Araguaia is less diluted than we might fear) but also we get some progress on what will surely in time be the flagship project.

I don't think the market is expecting it. I give it 20% chance. But if, just if, there is an announcement relating to Vermelho in the financing round which assigns a partner (for example Teck but really could be anybody else) I think we get a double rereate. I think everyone is expecting a rerate on finance but few are expecting an announcement on Vermelho presently.

Hi 600Thieves, agree 100% finance is the key and all along while I have been investing and building the stake here it has preoccupied my thinking how it could be done. My thinking around why we won't get a duff deal is as follows:

- majors prior to Orion investing (Glen/Teck etc.) all need it to happen or their stake isn't worth anything with the mine not building/producing
- if they don't want to stump the cash at what the board feels acceptable, we now have Orion (very deep pockets) - we probably need their agreement but surely this is the game - the FD and JM have been doing the rounds seeing who will pay what.
- We have many many hundreds of millions worth of dollars of value here. If the parties won't finance it lets wait for $20-25k/t nickel price and sell it as job lot - this is best outcome for existing investors. I'd rather wait 3 years, not build a mine, then sell at Onca Puma rates.

So it is the combination of the above that I think will see us through, that and we have a smart MD and FD. I think JM's comment that we need £100m mcap was telling - it gets the SP to around 7p which I personally feel sets a floor at the issue price (and might well be what is issued). The gig is then how little equity can they get away with.

We can't forget Vermelho. If Vermelho is knowingly diluted by the raise, this might get premium premium at the placing - the equity partners by contributing £x are getting a slice of Vermelho 'for free'. I'll take it all day long as long as we get financed at 7p+ as Vermelho currently contributes £0 to my shareholding value!

So the board have cards to play and I think they got a good deal with Orion and this bodes well. Agreed coronavirus is a bummer, hopefully this won't put the spanner in the works but from the recent announcements, apparently not! Exciting week(s) ahead!

Thanks Luke v interesting. If so expect that to be sticky hands - why sell before the end. There could be an awful lot of shares in sticky hands here when things start moving (though I always assumed the ii's would hang around and it has been mostly those selling!) But in any case expect not too kuch free float once the traders exit post finance. What we need is serious new ii interest post finance, like some funds, then I expect to get much much closer towards npv based valuation.

It is suspiciously close number to the Teck holding and they do get to appoint somebody to the board (I'm not sure on what basis they can do this - just the shareholding they have, or by agreement) but other than that I don't know. If Teck count as non-public then their holding would be under (c). Could the balance be director holdings.

The full statement at the bottom of the significant holders reads:

"In terms of AIM Rules published May 2010 and insofar as it is aware, at 31 December 2019, 15.5% of the Company’s AIM securities were not in public hands.
No shares held in treasury."

So apparently not!

Does anybody know who might own the cecurities 'not in public hands'? Would these include options, or does this statement relate only to issued shares? Would it apply to the Teck holding as they appear to be able to nominate somebody to the board? The below from the current shareholder listing:

In terms of AIM Rules published May 2010 and insofar as it is aware, at 31 December 2019, 15.5% of the Company’s AIM securities were not in public hands.

"not in public hands AIM securities held, directly or indirectly (including via a
related financial product) by:
(a) a related party;
(b) the trustees of any employee share scheme or
pension fund established for the benefit of any
directors/employees of the applicant/AIM
company (or its subsidiaries);
(c) any person who under any agreement has a
right to nominate a person to the board of
directors of the applicant/AIM company;
(d) any person who is the subject of a lock-in
agreement pursuant to rule 7 or otherwise;"

But if you want to do more research this is a good start:

https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/investor_presentation/

It will (at least) double in 2-3 months and (at least) x5 from current level in next 2-3 years. So if that floats your boat no further research needed just buy it!

My thinking is this (bear with me I've never built a mine before)!

To start they need to do extensive groundworks (hopefully everything they need for that bit they can source in Brazil, plenty of mining in the district so hopefully contractors etc. readily available and hopefully already lined up). They also need to pull the trigger on procurement of plant/mine parts from abroad, maybe some of that may need to be manufactured (probably some of it isn't sitting on a shelf somewhere) and has a lead time. There will be shipping times etc. to get everything on site.

If Brazil can get a handle on Cv in 2-3 months from now (lets assume they are approaching a peak now) we may be able to start August/September. Perhaps even earlier with groundworks.

The rest of the world should be ready for business come August/September. I am not sure where the parts will be sourced from but many countries at least the heavier industries should be going by then.

If so I would expect finance is needed June/July to pull the trigger. So if Brazil can get its act together and get a handle, you want financing to conclude a month or two before start (at least), and realistically they may have to get the finance deal signed, with a window for drawdown which allows for some slippage due to Brazil being in lockdown.

Just my thoughts. I think pressure on to get the money June/July for August/September start to be on track with the timscales which were previously published. If so we are close, very close.

seemed to kick off around 1-1.30pm today. That's 8-8.30am in Toronto/Montreal. About start of work time.

Well, if the last two weeks pattern is repeated, we'll get another 5m or 10m buy reported, this time Tuesday. We had a big buy reported each of the last two Mondays. Wouldn't surprise me to see if this is the fill.