Member Info for wasarunner

Good luck getting it done mate I was as frustrated as the next man at the SP at end of March/early April as I had anticipated 5p area ahead of financing but looking further ahead, it might have been a blessing in disguise - I ISA'd over 3m shares in 3 accts and added substantially to holding between January and today at what I think will, as the dust settles with time, seem like basement bargain prices. Mostly in the 3px, some in the 2px and a few in the 1px in the last 5 months.

Anyone who has had the fortune to have had cash they didn't need in this period March-May (and not been a forced seller like dj) will do very well indeed from current prices. Obviously 1.x p shares are already now in the real money but at point of maximum fear wonder who had the cash or approach to buy it.

It is really weird, after Orion was done I thought that's the last chance to add to positions, then the SP fell to the 3p area backend of last year but I anticipated a rise into March/April time so thought the opportunity had gone and here I am today adding sub 3p. It is going to go either very right or very wrong. My money is quite literally on it going very right! GLA

ihowells totally with you - you have a plan - you know your plan - you know your plan will make you money. Duff financial institutions working at 18th century pace let you down. So their staff are working from home - no excuse. This rate you'll be doing Bed & ISA at 7p ! Surely they have to complete it in the 20/21 tax year right?!

And in all calcs I add the options back in for a total shareholding of around 1.6bn shares presently.....

Onca Puma was circa $800m but USD/GBP so I've guesstimated exchange rates.....
3x the resource 3x the price lets hope...

£1 would value us ~£1.6bn which would be around 3x the valuation of Onca Puma but JM has stated (several times) we have 3x Onca Puma in resource.

Have to confess £1 is at top end of my sale price range but I'd take it :)

frustrating, I applied for BBL May 4th sp was 2.2p so to add 2 weeks later at 3p is frustrating. But bigger picture needs to be seen. Borrowed from my other company until the BBL comes through.

Positive is it shows we can add 30% to SP in 2 weeks in short order. Do that again and we'll be 4p by end May.

This is all long term money for me so not really interested in the swings in the 2p range anyway, even if we drop. This is holding to production or sale. GLA.

Agree 100%. Orion was insufficient a year ago (IMO) to keep us at a sustained higher SP because the company were pretty open that we still had a year to go. I think a lot of market participants will interpret that as still having time to place their chips. Orion was the first piece of the jigsaw but it was put in place too early (for the big ticket item - full financing) to have the desired and ongoing effect of propping up the valuation (if that was intended).

The next piece will have the desired effect because for anybody following the story, they will know the timespan to enter is then very very limited. I really only expect an RNS on finance, whatever it is, behind it you will know the other pieces are there or thereabouts. Perhaps in the first RNS we might get indicative timescales on completion anyway. Clock is ticking here.

The Cannacord thing was significant because if we see more significant position taking by 'smart money' we know we're close. Seen it on other stocks, there is a mysterious ability of the smart money to time things just about right. Funny how they do that :-)

Really it's all about the market believing financing is about to happen. If that gets triggered (whether by an announcement that some offtake / royalty / anything is agreed) I expect every man and his dog to want to buy in here and we will rerate very quickly. We are just waiting for that catalyst. I don't think it will be nickel prices which will do it.

There's an awful lot of money that can rush here in a short time and it is relatively illiquid shares are tightly held I think for a co with ~£50m mcap so the rise will be pretty spectacular, as it was on 'Orion day'. We'll have people buying for the day, the week, few months, and investors who have been playing away but really wanted to be here all along.

I think the SP over the last 1-2 years has shown this is a really complicated scenario. We had decent nickel price+distressed seller=poor SP. We had v strong nickel price+Orion=good SP. We had excellent Vermelho BFS+expected Araguaia news+non distressed seller and SP drifted down.

Right now we're in Coronavirus+not so great nickel price+looming recession+promise that finance is on track=2.xp

I can't see nickel price in and of itself making a huge difference here UNLESS the market strongly believes that it is a key factor in getting finance nailed in a relatively short timeframe. We simply haven't seen a very strong correlation between the SP and nickel prices - the other factors above have had bigger impacts.

So for my money financing news is far more key than nickel prices. Financing news and we go above last years high imho. No financing news and we will drift around with whoever is selling whoever is buying and nickel price +/- 1 or 2p per share. That's significant if you are trading it, but for the holders for the big prize it isn't significant really.

I'm hoping we hear from the board. I imagine they will now only update the market post an RNS. I rather suspect they can't talk at the moment about progress on an 'update the market' type call if they are at delicate stages of negotiations (as is very likely if the quarterly update is believed and we are on track for finance).

Notice they voted against the new non-exec director from Teck - hopefully it is a representative of Glencore which has voted against. Let the bidding commence ladies & gentlemen. Open at, lets say, 20 pence? Any offers?

The 10m votes against 3 of the board members.
Cannacord TR1. II buyer. 10m shares approximate purchase? Could somebody have bought in to vote against, or coincidence? Agitator investor perhaps?

For anyone with some patience now it feels risky to be out - I was tempted to move the trading pot again (so many bargains and getting cheaper by the way) but this can pop any day at all and my timing/luck on such things is terrible, at best. If I sold today you could guarantee an RNS lands tomorrow.

Also very nice to see us buck a trend with a solid rise on a big FTSE down day. For my money plenty more FTSE down days to come, lets hope we keep moving against on up against it. Not a chartist but believe the signals must look quite good now? 3p area is an obvious resistance.

All set nicely and nickel has been pretty well holding the $12k range - nothing exciting but not tanking in current markets is to be celebrated. Is anybody on the AGM can feed back?

Yes AIMtodeath I see Cannacord buying as huge news today. I haven't seen much II buying since I've been invested (in fact with City Financial and Griffiths quite the opposite), so to see such buying when the general market is in 'flight to cash' mode or similar is huge news. They certainly aren't buying thinking financing isn't going to get done. As you say, follow the money.

This works well for us on two fronts: Nickel is a 'green' commodity as such as it supports the electric revolution but also, we have clean hydro as the power source for the plants. The source of power in environmental concerns for how mining is performed will become an increasingly important parameter in future years and I think we are coal free (except for the coal needed in the ferronickel process but I am not a metallurgist so not sure of those details).

An increase of 0.81% of co and 10m shares I approximated the other day as 0.7% of co in one transaction. I guess we know who the 10m share buyer was then.

I don't think it will be one Cannacord client there will be multiple holders? Interesting that they have to declare the position change but, for example, I don't think HL or II have to declare when the sum of all their clients holdings in nominee account exceed a threshold?

Craigieboy I think if a bid comes it will be within now to production+1 year is the most likely timeframe (so quite a wide timespan but it suits my purposes and my goals are 3 years from now). Much more than a year after production and why would you sell the company, particularly if you are building Phase 2, nickel is high, revenues forever. If you sell past that point you are probably selling because Nickel outlook isn't good, or you are selling at serious premium in which case as shareholders we really don't care because they'd better come with 50p+/sh.

SO production in 2-3 years or sale in 2-3 years with something happening in the meantime with Vermelho (makeweight in sale, or JV) would suit absolutely fine. Something like a 20-40p target at the end of it all. I will need to sell about 1/4 of my holding in 3 years (or smaller % if the SP is really big) to buy a house, after that it's divis all the way if we still own this company. IF we don't own it I don't mind but give me 15p today or more like 20-25p in a couple of years time.

Craigieboy true and indeed. Some comfort I think that the Orion deal I think was rather good (for Horizonte) would suggest they/we hold a lot of cards in these negotiations. I have 0 understanding of how such a complex financing discussion happens (except that it clearly takes over a year and a half) so just waiting for it to conclude really. It is good protection for us, as shareholders, that none of the big IIs will be happy to be diluted wrt other IIs at any kind of cheap discount, and many of them are in at much higher prices. Of course it will be the size of eventual pie they have their eye on but if Orion is to go buy people will pay decent money for a slice. We will see. Hopefully some progress tomorrow.

Curious what people's views are on financing - the equity portion issue price and subsequent 'low' price beween issue and production. Just a guess really but numbers I am thinking:

7.5p issue price
7.5p low

I think equity will be issued at an incentive price to IIs on the books (and possibly Orion). Although I then anticipate profit taking as the SP goes to the issue price, it is also a substantially de-risking step and I can't really see the SP falling much below that number?

So for e.g. to keep numbers simple - post finance 7.5p - 2.4bn shares (just picking a number existing+options+50% of existing) = £180m mcap

Still low for a mine which will one day produce +£100m/yr revenues but with 2 years to production.

What do people think of the numbers - would post finance mcap ever fall below £180m, is the financing SP too low (it is reasonably pessimistic but who knows, still 3x todays price) etc.

Longer term I would then expect the SP to go up as we:
a. near production
b. Nickel prices rise

So somewhere I see a trajectory 7.5p => 15-25p at production but unsure of the graph between those points (probably depends on macro, and also updates on mine build progress / keeping within budget / keeping within timeframes)

EUA is my best holding. Hasn't gone down since Feb.

Everything else I held in Feb is down.
Everything else I've tried to trade, I'm at most even on (note - I'm not a good trader, others might have done better).

Palladium is still as close to $2k/ounce as we need it to be, company has still been around 20years+ and the SP hasn't gone down at a time when even FTSE 100 companies have lost (some) over half their value. Not a lot not to like. Best performing stock in my portfolio now 3 months running.

thanks owlo - probably a good thing that the north of the country is implementing the lockdown first. Where we see the virus best mitigated lockdown happened early. Hopefully Brazil can manage the outbreak well, I do think generally this is harder for developing countries for all sorts of reasons. Hopefully if the north of Brazil locks down first it can release the lockdown first also.

I can't imagine financing has to be timed precisely to coincide with the end of lockdown. You could have financing done and dusted and signed with a few months window to start construction? In fact it is hard to envisage signing the terms on Friday and starting to pour cement on Monday. So there must be an element of forecasting and looking ahead a few months to be done also.