Member Info for wasarunner

I think if JPM take a hit they take it for a reason (for future gain no doubt) but I suspect they didn't take a hit here. They're like one of the most successful investment banks :-) I'm pretty sure all will be revealed. Well after months of silence we finally have some indications of what is going on. Exciting stuff. Will the share price react much? Hasn't yet!

>>All depends on the price they got
I think, precisely. If it was off market I would bet my house they didn't part with them for 3.5p. All IMO! But it also implies an II buyer considered the JPM price against the actual or likely equity raise price to determine whether they wanted to buy them. This close to the financing it probably suggests they know what that price is.

I think the next TR1 / RNS here will be absolutely massive and illuminate the whole scenario.

Also next RNS could be huge. If (and again just working off my other posts here) another II has taken JPM shares and declares a TR1, we should rocket because then it is obvious to market we are at equity stage. All IMO

My hope is the raise price is so high JPM didn't want to participate. 30p?! You must be joking they said. That would be sweet....

I believe we are close ladies and gentlemen. A most welcome development :-)

" issue price perhaps"
By which I mean - the placing price for equity portion of the raise.

IF it was off market we don't know what deal was done. Orion (or another II) may well have paid JPM premium for their shares. Something to make it worth their while. Even the issue price perhaps?

Also I think they are down below 3% (that's the fact in the RNS). So they could be at 2.99% or 0%. I guess that may leave them 2.99% still to sell. But I would think if they've got shot in one go they are most likely to have exited completely.

The way I read it, they would have had to declare each percentage point on the way down (unless they got shot in one lump or so).
They didn't do that so:
- either they broke the rules or
- they have sold in one lump (probably to another II off market)

The way I am reading this (and very happy to be corrected) is that all parties are getting houses in order to redistribute the equity for the equity portion of the finance. As part of that activity all IIs have been consulted and deals have been made. This may have resulted in JPM deciding to be out (and for e.g. Orion buying in). Further TR1s will reveal all (or not).

Today's mcap ~£50m gbp is something I think Horizonte could, in time, distribute from dividend MAYBE even from phase 1 Arraguaia production. Depends on a few things - obviously nickel prices, tax rates, USD/GBP exchange rates and the like but probably doable. Means buyers today could see their money back per year a few years down the line. It is what I first invested for.

I still now don't think we will get that far though (in a good way :)

fair point sp7 -> worth reflecting that ex cash we are still valued at circa £15m / asset which is obviously still peanuts for Tier 1 assets! So less undervalued than a month ago, but not by that much (all things considered). Realistically even a £100m mcap is pretty undervaluing considering the assets. I am sure many, many miners have been valued higher with lesser prospects.

Crazy really 1 month 3 days. What's changed? Company re-iterated still on track, that's about it. But today it is worth twice as much as it was 33 days ago. Nickel is still in the ground, but it was also in the ground on April 17th!

Fair play and good work. Nobody should grumble at 100% gain in a fraction over a month! If only that were repeatable with compound growth.....

incidentally I think Orion will participate and could become a chunky shareholder (and may provide further royalty or even some of the debt). It will be very interesting post financing to see which IIs are in and which have reduced (as total %) because it might give us an indicator where we are heading longer term......

depending on ratio of royalty/debt/equity then a guesstimate mcap for me is ~£200m feels about right. I'm not sure if we'll get much higher at this stage pre construction? With 2bn shares in issue that would be 10p. But as I said very happy to be proven too pessimistic.

7.5 - 10p

(but not because I don't want it higher!) That's my estimate for what new shares will be issued at in the financing terms. to the IIs for the equity portion. Whether the SP then overshoots that post finance, will see. Will happily take a peak post finance of 10-15p!

I appreciate my figs always on the pessimistic side compared to others views on here but very very happy to be surprised to the upside!

Yes I got quote for 500k sell, but not 1m this morning. Yesterday I had quote for 1.5m share sell, highest I've ever seen through my platform. Somebody wants them!!!

My sense is a lot of longer term holders are in at current price (ish) averages and won't be in for 10%. There are some who will have traded the recent lows but probably not huge volumes so the hot money may already have left. Other than that new traders could land but they'll be selling in the 4p+ probably. I can see it not taking long to get there.

my hope is selling dries up in the anticipation of news. Then, when discretionary clients come for their 1.5m shares a pop, they are going to struggle to find them at current prices.

If you're selling now you're a distressed seller because the writing is on the wall we are going much higher. Hold for gold. I'd be distressed if I didn't see the next rise out!

Literally no reason to be selling now. IMO.

>>Somebody wants those shares. They aren't having them
Not even DISCRETIONARY CLIENTS.

Just got confirmed price for 1,500,000 share sell just now at market. That's the biggest tranche I've had quoted, ever.

Tells me what I need to know. Somebody wants those shares. They aren't having them.