great posts17 May 2020 11:43
Great posts guys, whiles away some weekend reading them when one feels locked down.
On the financing side agree it is exciting that we have confirmation that financing is on track, saying it hasn't been affected by Covid - well it's not strictly true - Q1 has been and gone and we don't yet know which banks and what they have been committed. But I remain pretty positive that 'behind the scenes' everything is aligning nicely. The most encouraging thing is forward looking nickel demand and forecast pricing which surely, is the key determinant that the big players who will spend big money here are looking at. Recent M&A in the space can only help. These opportunities for investment of this quality and grade and size are few and far between and mostly already in the hands of majors.
ON positioning and size, everyone has their goals I have utmost respect for anybody who has the patience to hold long, but I also don't begrudge those that make some bucks on the swings. There have been plenty of swings here. I am sure some have played them well I've mostly added at all points, very few sell transactions except to move between pots.
When I first invested it was for production/dividend/yield but latterly what I read about the industry I am starting to think this is the least likely outcome. Partly I question whether it is what the board (JM et al) really want, but that's absolutely fine - the alternative is to position this great company with great assets into the path of a boom in demand for Nickel at absolutely the right time and absolutely the right state - fully permitted, financed, possibly mine built. Any time in the next 3 years. I think Vermelho is what will get the company sold, it is too big and juicy asset and the board have made no secret of the fact we're too small to develop it alone. For my money, the longer we go down the road with Araguaia, while we hear little about Vermelho, the more likely company total sale. Of course a JV on Vermelho could land anytime and might change that.
I've taken a huge position here mainly because I trust my judgement - twice before I've made the right call with investments which would have returned me 7 figures and for different reasons (one was timing - sell too soon, second was personal life disaster became a forced seller). It is a game but it's fun - you look ahead - do your research, back yourself. Less smart people have made more money. What would I do with the money if it comes off - I have no idea - I live a pretty frugal life anyway - my car is 9 years old my phone is 6 years old. Set my children up in a hard world to get a slight head start then find some good causes to support probably.
Good luck all, I am reasonably hopeful that the relative radio silence from the board is because they can't talk, rather than there is nothing to talk about. I think they are super smart people, on the buying side the deals they have done (assembling Araguaia from Glencore, buying Vermelho from Vale) an
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