Member Info for wasarunner

Luke yes I just made that point on twitter. You have to respect the BOD for not selling PIs down the river (as they probably could have done several times even in the years up to now) and holding for the deal. Timing the deal is difficult of course in current conditions but respect that they are holding nerve and setting own terms on it. Rather a late deal than a duff deal personally.

PopUrbanII - the target I believe was always end of H1 but there was always a caveat (even pre Covid) that it would be subject to market conditions at the time. I always took market conditions to be - equity markets general risk appetite etc (which both JM and Simon Retter had previously said were generally pretty weak at the moment) and Nickel price. Well nickel price ain't really flying presently and I guess CV hasn't improved the equity markets appetite but there we have it.

I can't find a timeline in any of the presentations but there was definitely a timeline for Araguaia in something I saw back last year.

Everybody knows this isn't a precise science there are an awful lot of variables. I believe in the board and the assets but the timing (of the pandemic) is pretty bad really. I think the positives to draw are there is clearly lots of interest (Orion are a given on equity I think) from major players so they will get the deal done, and not just doing it at any price is a good thing IMO.

>>I am not sure why this has any relevant whatsoever to JM and this project
Yes that would be my comment.

I think (sadly) UK plc is going to dark places in times ahead. But this is very different from the global situation and Aragauaia/Vermelho are going to be much more tied to the global picture, with the commodity priced in $. I am generally pretty pessimistic about UK (even before Covid) and is one of the reasons I wanted most of my cash invested externally (probably started thinking long and hard about this around time of the Brexit vote). Horizonte is just one such opportunity.

The world will recover. I think they have to wait till macro improves to complete the deal. Maybe as you say buying time to get something done on Vermelho, perhaps talks already ongoing. The only bit that is a tad annoying is the slight false hope the latest update gave us that things were on track. We knew things weren't on track because we didn't have the list of banks in Q1 as originally promised.

I think a lot of the deal is done they need the right conditions to trigger it that's all. I would be amazed if they didn't have the equity partners lined up, and didn't already know the equity price they want. Maybe they just can't get what they want right at this minute.

Also again just opinion but a buyout price only rises from now as Nickel improves with or without development. Even if we are stalled and nothing happening car manufacturers are still making plans to move to ev and new nickel supply is still not being developed to fill steel demands in years ahead.

Ultimately the value of this company (whether t/o value or value in production) is dependent on nickel price and tbat will only improve with time. We are a T/O target whether producing or not at right nickel price so just patience needed here for the long game...

It is playing out as I originally expected that we needed the covud situation to ease and really nickel to gain a bit and economies to restart. It was optimistic to assume anything else and I think the recent 'on plan' announcement though it had the effect of recovering the shareprice was a bit misleading as it didnt really illustrate the timescales. Will it have an effect on sp yes probably drift hopefully 3p will be support. For those that think long further opportunities to add, I may be able to but limited in next 3 months. I would say Orion involved in equity is given from the language used, and I dont know if anybody read this but I am reading Teck interest in Vermelho. Which I have always assumed but first time I have heard directly hinted at. Just reading between lines mind. In my estimation Vermelho being leveraged to finance Araguaia sounds more likely than before (maybe it is the only way to complete in current macro environment.)

Good in medium to long term, probably not what people wanted in the short term. All imo.

AIMtodeath interesting philosophy and mirrors my sentiment. I don't try to trade news I don't know is coming so I hold. Is it the right strategy? Don't know obviously if I'd sold at 5p and bought back at 1.6p I'd have closer to 30m+ or more shares than 22m. Because I can't time news, and I'm not a particularly good trader, I decided not to try. Buy sound investment with conviction, hold as long as it takes (as long as its a few years and not a few decades) and reap the rewards.

Some will be here for financing only and nothing wrong with that. I expect a fall post financing personally, but then alignment with nickel prices (which should go up in years ahead) and proximity of build complete. I won't trade it (or even try) because I'm for the long game. I won't even slice because I don't want to sell a single Horizonte share for less than 20p....

The other news it is hard to time is a T/O bid. You think you're being smart post financing selling out then the bid lands 3 months later for 30p. You took 10p well done etc..... RNS lands 7am and you are not in you never will be etc.

I like that palladium is already $2k/ounce before the full effects of the vast QE that is happening in the west has really had time to feed through to inflation and eventual devaluation of currencies. It is only going to get more expensive folks. All good here... the longer it takes, the better the eventual price IMO. The holding pattern is just fine for now.

Hi 600Thieves yes and I expect the caveat 'depending on lockdown' to mean exactly that - the situation in Brazil.

I have always been more concerned about the financing aspect as I see it as the company making event. If they can get that right, a delay to start due to the pandemic itself (for me, personal viewpoint) is neither here nor there. The big ticket item is financing and I'd like to hear tomorrow that we think it is going to complete in 4 weeks time! If it can and we can't build till October, so be it. Must be somewhere you can put $443m in the interim (just joking, I know that's not how that works).

It can't have helped but 'on track and not delayed' is what it is - it is a bold statement to make by the company in the latest results. There was an opportunity already to announce a delay when everyone was expecting it, now the expectation has been set that there isn't a delay (unless affected by lockdown) so we will see. People will obviously be trying to read the language JM uses tomorrow and make up their own minds.

If we are on track then we are ridiculously close (in time). It kinds of has to be one or other. I always think the closer you get to your stated timescale and announce a delay last minute you cause a bigger problem than announcing it earlier. If we were going to be delayed I would like to have heard about it before now - plenty of opportunity for an update in March/April when things were kicking off good and proper around and about but we got reassurance then. We will see!

I attribute recent rises to two things really - rerating (like rest of market pretty much) from the initial covid shocks and secondly the expectation (company having confirmed on track) of finance.

News of delay to finance is likely to send us down, how low, don't know. Not saying that is coming, but if.
In the meantime we probably haven't had enough crystal clear news (Cannacord buying aside) to give us that nudge up beyond pre-covid territory.

Will that change tomorrow? If there is no RNS I can't see material new facts being discussed in the evening call - perhaps a reiteration that we are on track, maybe confirmation of timescales but surely new information can not be released then. Will we get an RNS? Don't know, I'm probably not expecting one, but it will be a pleasant surprise if we do.

I'm sure a lot has gone on behind closed doors but until we know more about what, it seems unlikely we will re-rate. Maybe in the case of Horizonte the info is just not 'leaky' enough as it appears to be sometimes on other stocks :)

Lets see what JM says tomorrow and take it from there! I doubt we would fall below 3p unless there is a chunky delay because I think sub 3p territory represents covid panic levels. Whilst S America may be seeing the worst of the pandemic now the rest of the world is starting to move into next phase. Long term economic detrimental impacts of course but initial panic over. World still needs nickel etc. prices haven't collapsed.

Obviously the news everyone immediately will focus on is probably the fact we don't delist and we have a Nomad. Understandably so. But I am equally excited that we have a trained barrister with substantial corporate law and M&A experience under his belt. Could come in very handy, say, in the final phases of a complex asset sale transaction :). Good news all round and onwards and upwards (well once we unsuspend).

Never doubted it and never panicked but I probably have less invested here than some, so maybe more easily done.

It is playing a bit like I expected/hoped - won't unsuspend until further news regarding (probably)MT. Good news chaps. Well to those with holdings. Pretty excited here, we still have WK producing (already) and news to come on asset sales. Still doing much better than all my other investments. GLA.

We will. I think it could easily be sensitive and connected to the financing - my first thoughts when the jpm news broke was this was the clearing the decks before equity is done. It feels close. The price action recently very kuch supports the theory thst we will see some news imminently, as does the confirmation that financing hasnt been delayed - ergo - expected within 5 weeks of today. Not impatient, just intrigued, the deal we get. Gla

Excellent thanks mate that puts one of the questions to bed. It makes sense - had I got my maths right I would have sussed it on the weekend but thought the director holdings were higher.

The intriguing question now is what happened to the jpm shares. In my experience investment banks dont give up these assets lightly...and if someone paid premium, who was it?!

JPM transaction took place (or ended) on 18th May. Open price was 2.95p close was 3.375p. Volume traded was 17.8m shares (on that day). No way they dumped it on open market then, or any time in the prior week, throughout which the shareprice was broadly rising.

I still expect a (delayed?) TR1.

I would be surprised if there was any relaxation of the rules during the pandemic but who knows. Stranger things have happened.

Hi guys, this thing is still bugging me.

https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/w-009-1710?transitionType=Default&contextData=(sc.Default)&firstPage=true&bhcp=1

Under the schedule 'when to notify' companies following DTR5:
Shareholder must notify AIM company as soon as possible and within two trading days (DTR 5.8.3R)
AIM company must notify market by the end of the third trading day after notification (DTR 5.9.1R).

AIM rule 17:
"Without delay"

I don't know under which regime Horizonte is reporting but assume it isn't the PSC regime. This suggests a buyer of JPM shares assuming transaction took place 18th May (Monday) would have to notify Horizonte by COB Wednesday 20th May (I suppose there is a chance they don't/didn't do this).

Horizonte then have 3 working days to release the information via TR1. I make that COB today.

So unless Horizonte is reporting under a different regime, or something has slipped, I would expect the TR1 would land today.

600Thieves where did you get the 14 days from? Thanks.

Ethio - well done. My first Horizonte buy was 3.97p so you got in cheaper than me. I first bought 11/4/18! Strange in 2 years and with the progress this company has made since we are still at the same level but by all accounts that is about to change.

Ethio yes if you are completely new to hzm you just missed a good opportunity at the 2p area we never thkught we would see that level again (with £17m in the bank) that was a pure covid panic thing, but in terms of the longer term these are still very cheap. My goal remains 7.5-10p financing this year and 20-25p in 2-3yrs when producing so risk reward timescales you take yohr pick. We all have our goals and time horizons! My next target is 4.8p - only because when multiplied by my holdings it gives me a nice round number.

Thats interesting! Could be a very simple explanation then. I thought it was 4 days. Plenty of days left to declare if jpm sold 18th May as their tr1 suggests. Maybe later this week or next week for news then.

It seems odd that the 'not in public hands' increased by pretty much the Cannacord stake after they crossed above 10% if that was not the reason. Seems more than coincidence. I am not overly familiar with how all these reporting rules hang together but generally trust we will find out all in good time and pretty relaxed about it all, but it is nice speculating. Speculating is always best with an appreciating sp I find!