Member Info for wasarunner

With a long term view you can't go wrong backinblak - I was reading on the weekend how historically undervalued base metals are at the moment. Even with a recession coming (which will affect higher cost nickel producers much more if Nickel remains subdued) being lowest quartile on cost on both mines makes this a very safe play. All IMO. My time horizons on most of my holding remain long term but now interested to see what can happen here in the next 12 months as the market sits up when Mr Musk speaks and about time too....

12p-15p target range with 2.5bn shares (which is my worst case equity estimate) is £300m-£375m mcap. So the question is can that be achieved in 12 months. Perhaps only with Vermelho in play, I don't know if Araguaia financing standalone can achieve that but lets see!

Thanks Craig. Pretty exciting stuff - nickel flying too. There are many ways this could go and I remember the JM interview back autumn last year - my feeling is they are holding for the right deal/good deal/best deal and actually just getting it financed on any terms would have been quite easy. Obviously for my circumstances now I would like Vermelho 'in play' sooner than later as to get to my goals you want it to add something to the shareprice (currently arguably it is valued at £0).

I can wait 2 years if needs but 1 preferred now. I am only looking to sell around 6m shares (and retain around 17m). Minimum price would be 12p but 15p preferred! GLA.

Right seen some houses we like so need this 12-15p within 12 months to sell a quarter of holding. What do people think? I am farily convinced 20-30p+ is a formality in due ccourse but with potentially needing to shift some earlier (main holding for 2023-25) my pessimistic 7-10p financing timescale shareprice ain't cutting it. Will we spike over? Or with the removal of the financing hurdle are we derisked enough to move closer to npv based valuation? Is Vermelho now the key to getting over 10p? Gla

Throne true, but for me that makes it a buy on multi year view. The banks are safe the insurance is the boe can print (country as a whole and economy is different matter). I bought bp a while after deepwater horizon once I had convinced myself it wasnt going bust, collected the divis downstream and sold at multiple years later. Lloyds will pay divi and be multiple, one day. Today I would argue it is a bargain. But eua/hzm could be a better short term investment. Which is why we are all here. I held eua but relative risk profile understood it a lot less so much smaller postition and was happy to take a gain. Put it mainly into hzm. Here I am waiting multi year because the big payday I see as structural nickel deficit mid decade. If majors want to position ahead of the deficit they will come and buy horizonte, maybe 2023 maybe earlier. Thats what I (and probably some others here) hope and are in for. Gla.

Ps I think you will double your money here within 12 mo. Hopefully sooner and hopefully more.

Highest price since Jan.
Last year, from around same date (earlier in July) it took nickel 6 weeks to go $13.5k -> $18k. We had the Indo scare and lower inventory but still shows what is possible. We should be at $14k in short order and then hopefully test it. Is $14k the magic barrier for our 4p resistance here? We will see.

Yes although counterargument is the usual suspects are relatively cheap (by historical standards). In a perfect world HZM would have already paid out, roll on 5 years, and Lloyds would still be at 30p. My move then would be to buy Lloyds. Problem here is by the time HZM delivers 20p+ I don't expect Lloyds to be 30p but long term there's nowt wrong with a solid divi paying stock. UKgov won't let the banks go down.

There is a nice divi paying scenario possible here but T/O more likely IMO. Either way I'm waiting for one or the other.

oh and if you hope for a complete T/O I don't see bidding starting at less than 20p, based on what Horizonte and predecessors spent on proving the resources. So a T/O gets you to 20p+ very quickly and potentially a lot more. Here's hoping!

Throne my targets are - financing this year 7-10p (considered conservative by many here), anytime in the next two quarters.
20p-30p+ in 2023 (production + something happened with Vermelho).
If we get Vermelho news this year, my 7-10p will be too conservative I would guess. So pick your timeframes and strap in for the ride!

Vermelho is a monster. I always thought it would go down the ferro route (economics even better than Araguaia) because of the combined scale if they were both ferro. But with what we're reading about class1/EV I'm less sure. There is a risk investing in a big HPAL mine but if the price premium that such a product will command against a huge projected demand coming in years ahead, maybe it will come. In any case I think that decision will be a third party and not Horizonte's decision which way to mine it. GLA.

>>That will close the opportunities for the 10% crew.
At this price I should say. THere's always an opportunity for 10% but the trading range could move.

yes and buyers going 'it's only value sub 4p I'll only buy then' and hold off buying. Which works until Mr Big thinks he wants in, comes along, not too bothered whether he is paying 4 or 4.5p as he has eyes on the prize and buys the lot. Kind of the action we saw on Monday.

I think jumps from 4->4.5p and even 4.5p->5p can easily happen short order if we have a big enough interested party who is not so price sensitive and is positioning for the longer game. That will close the opportunities for the 10% crew.

from what I see. Could that be the 10% boys out? Once they can't get shares sub 4p if we have buyers still interested they will have to raise again to get sells?

Would you like your cobalt alongside, or after your nickel Mr Musk?

Apologies if this has already been quoted but:

"“Tesla will give you a giant contract for a long period of time if you mine nickel efficiently and in an environmentally sensitive way.”"

- Giant Contract I like the sound of
- long period of time also works well for me
- we will use hyrdo power and (hopefully!) some rail to get the product to port and
- full enviro study in place for Araguaia (and to be done for Vermelho)

Efficiency wise - open pit - doesn't really get more efficient.
GLA

NtOfRiver I think it is a bit unfair to say all focus on Araguaia. JM pretty upfront that the've put the 'who wants to partner with us on Vermelho' sign out and received a lot of interest. At least 50% chance the next big news, or indeed the financing news itself, involves Vermelho in some form or other IMO. It is also pretty obvious that if they are at the business end of such discussions, there will be strict NDAs in place so they can't really just shout about it (yet!)

Bugger I never meant to press sell

I can only assume its the new broker building a float, or there is a large entity buyer in the shadows. And the price is being walked to fill. Never had a quote for over 1.5m shares in one transaction here.

In fact, they'll take all shares in my trading account in one transaction. That's 4806948. Being offered £150,402.05 for the lot.

They'll take 3m in one transaction. Over 100 grand. Tells me all I need to know! We're on.