Member Info for wasarunner

Ask is at his share option price. Another little news snippet should he so feel inclined to release and he's in the money....

Is ask really 4.6p? bodes well

4.5 Everton1965
4.7 AnimalSpirit
4.8 600Thieves
4.9 wasarunner
5.2 Rover62
5.5 chrismar
5.8 UncleJohn
5.9 owlo
6.0 ngnInv
6.1 Harkin100
6.4 Gower7465
6.5 Mazza86
6.9 pickedpeck
7.1 D220
7.5 Shellbay
7.8 backinblak
8 Thechukkers
8.2 craigieboy1
8.8 Bungle99
9.5 Nthoftheriver
10 Harry_Ore
10.7 Caledonite
11 Flavourshaker
11.5 Finleyboy01
12.2 LUKE1444
12.8 ihowells
12.9 Scotsknight
13.3 Qualia
14.26 fulmar29
15 djryan777
16 westie50
16.5 Worzel7
17.5 silkworm
21 SeanT1967
23.1 DickDabout
25 FiremanSam1968
32 Ivornomoney
40 Luke2

The median guess is Nthoftheriver 9.5p.

I would be not too unhappy with that, in 30 days or so time.

Closing price at September 15:

4.5 Everton1965
4.7 AnimalSpirit
4.8 600Thieves
4.9 wasarunner
5.2 Rover62
5.5 chrismar
5.8 UncleJohn
5.9 owlo
6.0 ngnInv
6.1 Harkin100
6.4 Gower7465
6.5 Mazza86
6.9 pickedpeck
7.1 D220
7.5 Shellbay
8 Thechukkers
8.2 craigieboy1
8.8 Bungle99
9.5 Nthoftheriver
10 Harry_Ore
10.7 Caledonite
11 Flavourshaker
11.5 Finleyboy01
12.2 LUKE1444
12.8 ihowells
12.9 Scotsknight
13.3 Qualia
14.26 fulmar29
15 djryan777
16 westie50
16.5 Worzel7
17.5 silkworm
21 SeanT1967
23.1 DickDabout
25 FiremanSam1968
32 Ivornomoney
40 Luke2

dj good luck with your 'last' topup! I will only have funds to topup on 31/8 and I will only topup at sub 5p - so for the sake of all already invested I really hope I don't have the opportunity by then to add below my target price :-). Surely in any case we can start making inroads into our closing price list at close of trading September 15 currently languishing south of the lowest entry:

4.5 Everton1965
4.7 AnimalSpirit
4.8 600Thieves
4.9 wasarunner
5.2 Rover62
5.5 chrismar
5.8 UncleJohn
5.9 owlo
6.0 ngnInv
6.1 Harkin100
6.4 Gower7465
6.9 pickedpeck
7.1 D220
7.5 Shellbay
8 Thechukkers
8.2 craigieboy1
8.8 Bungle99
9.5 Nthoftheriver
10 Harry_Ore
10.7 Caledonite
11 Flavourshaker
11.5 Finleyboy01
12.2 LUKE1444
12.8 ihowells
12.9 Scotsknight
13.3 Qualia
14.26 fulmar29
15 djryan777
16 westie50
16.5 Worzel7
17.5 silkworm
21 SeanT1967
23.1 DickDabout
25 FiremanSam1968
32 Ivornomoney
40 Luke2

40p might represent a bargain (for the buyer) but show me a punter on here who wouldn't take it :-). I would!
For me it represents a realistic take-out price but down the line I doubt we would get that right here right now. The beauty of this company is, if it does get bought, every day/week/month that passes will be a higher price because a) the BOD are progressing with the mines and b) nickel will get nearer and nearer to the deficit scenario.

I say bring on the bidders in 2-3+ years time when nickel is firmly in the $16k/t range and we're on the cusp or producing from 1 or 2 mines. What price then? Hopefully more TDT valuations than Luke valuations!

Vauxhall depending on equity in play eps 0.06 should be possible from Araguaia p1+p2 as long as nickel plays ball and gets to the $16-18k/t range in due course, without Vermelho. Depends on the total shares in issue of course. In early years 1-2p might be realidtic during capex payback but I am very much hoping to see 3-5p ie original investment price back yoy in future years. But we will see! My sp targrt at that point is less ambitious at 30p+ but again completely ignores Vermelho. The reason I tend to Vermelho in all calcs at the moment is a few reasons - it seems unlikely that we will develop it without a partner so its hard to predict what % retained, secondly I dont know what price premium the sulphate/cobalt intermediate if thats what we produce will fetch - my guess at the moment is in time a slightly different pricing mechanism might emerge for the intermediate products able to be used for batteries. The premium this might command above standard nickel pricing is anybody's guess I think - depends on the ev uptake rate and mine development rates to fulfill the demand I guess.

But very much believe in your mid term targets I am hoping for 7-10p at least at financing complete then 15-20p on first production at Araguaia. Any progress at all at Vermelho presents upside to those numbers. Gla

Vauxhall nice post just one comment -I generally asdume a lower valuation for a miner as the underlying commodities are volatile (ignoring the nickel boom here/ev etc) and look at 5-10x on p/e rsther thzn the 10/20x in other sectors. Happy to be corrected though? From what I have seen the majors tend to trade on lower p/e valuations but then their shareprices are also quite volatile with the commodity cycles they mine in.

That's true in balance sheet terms but of course they aren't borrowing the money to stick it under the mattress. They're borrowing it to mine stuff worth, conservatively, around $200m sale value a year ($14k/t x 14.5kt). So the fact that we have debt of that order of magnitude agreed which will in turn generate revenues on this scale then means it should be value adding to the company. But it hasn't added too much in the immediate aftermath! (yet)

Nowhere I would rather have my money tied up than a stock which will 10 bag in 5 years. I am not smart enough to pick those that 10 bag in 5 weeks. This will 10 bag in 5 years - $25m+$325m+orion+teck+glencore says its nailed on.

When the lse board got a bit tetchy here on EUA I made loads of money. So a bit of argy bargy is a welcome development, maybe we're at the business end with Horizonte :) True value will out just needs patience here. Maybe Horizonte is the one company which doesn't reach it's NPV based value until later in the lifecycle. It will crack me up if Teck & Glencore fund the offer at 10p and we stay at 4p. Means more bargains for the little guys (like me) I'll just keep adding!

if Carlsberg did nickel mines etc....

It is being kept low to fill orders but to do that there has to be the seller/dark pool/whatever shares floating around to fill. I just don't believe a whole bunch of impatient PI's who jumpedon at 3.5p are jumping off at 4.2p. Not when we know what's coming what - within the next 4 months and not in the volumes we are seeing.

Plenty of buying demand, but there is a seller happy to offload. It's a bit of a shame - this company seems to attract IIs with a penchant for selling out, or is just unlucky with timings of announcements etc.

Orion would probably be happy with 10p for equity. It is what they paid for their royalty +/-. Glencore/Teck probably not happy with anybody getting equity at less than 10p if that's what they paid in the early rounds. £50m equity is around 500m shares at 10p so a total 2bn shares + options. Remaining $50m to come from royalty / offtake something like Orionx2 on the original investment.

Very doable and 2bn shares is not substantially diluted. Plus we have Vermelho.

So I disagree in that current SP still massively undervalues the company because there won't be a level of dilution that justifies 4.xp in any circumstance. Furthermore, by securing the bank mandate, albeit conditional on other things, we know they have the other parts lined up so as far as investments go this is already de-risked. As an investor I can buy now at 4.2p or buy when the financing package is completed at 8-10p. Given that I now believe the finance package is all but complete, subject to signing pieces of paper, I'd rather buy at 4.2p. I can't buy at 4.2p sadly as I have no money. GLA

I think a bit of strategic analysis also suggests that yesterdays news is really big news for Vermelho. Aside from the fact that Vermelho is a better yielding asset in due course, hence if Araguaia can be financed with debt then so can V, we also have a huge endorsement of our management team which potential partners will be absolutely key on. If this team can get financing in place and an engineering team on the ground building a ferronickel mine, serious partners for Vermelho will believe in the opportunity for partnership here. It is a big step on Vermelho's journey also. I dont think Vermelho will be left on the shelf too long. Appreciate it is hard for a small co to progress the two projects simultaneously but I expect that partner announcement sooner, rather than later (perhaps early 2021 is realistic) and that will be a huge value driver also. The EV boom is coming if not here already, our management team know it, potential partners know it. Vermelho is next up. Gla

Shame we have a seller as there is obvious demand following the announcement. How long till they are out who knows. In the meantime an opportunity for new investors to get an entry in the low 4s and for existing investors to average up (or down). I bought some of mine in 2018 at 4.4p and 4.8p above the current price. We didnt have a $325m syndicated loan offer then, we didnt know how much the mine would cost to build, or what the contained nickel grading was. We weren't fully permitted. As such the current price is much better value now than 2 years ago and I thought it was good value then!

I think we have the news trigger now to move us out of our historical range. Any serious analysis will show dilution here wil be minimal (Tier 1 offtakers sounds good) so todays shareprice is cheap as chips for what is to come. I caught up on the interviews and I like the hints on Vermelho, nothing too specific yet but enough to wet the appetite! Gla

rob what's your source for that? 40m is not too bad, I wonder if there might be ii's in the wings now the news has been digested who might do a bit of loading up. 2% of company is very doable I think a lot more got traded yesterday. Then lets see that next leg up!

Huge news, I couldn't follow the trading and haven(t seen the interviews as on holiday. To me the finance package is lining up to be better than expected and worth the wait. They have done really well against a tough macro backdrop and this means one thing only -> that the project is very investable and they have major banks willing to lend and major mine financiers such as Orion queueing up to invest. These guys do far more DD than we will ever be able to do so it is obvious the project is go. It means Araguaia is very able to complete with Indonesia and Phillipines in ferronickel production.

Where next? I am not too fussed now by share price shenanigans maybe we need a full finance package announced before new funds invest, maybe not. In my experience at eua sp starts moving when big boys move in and it isnt happening here yet but it will in time. In the meantime project is as de-risked as it gets in this industry and we can watch it come together on the finance side in months ahead. I kept buying every time I had cash I think I have a couple of purchases in August i dont have my data with me but always believed we had a finite window to add at these levels and now that is running out. Maybe 5p will present a barrier maybe not. Fwiw I now think if equity is issued under £50m, which looks very possible, the placing price becomes almost immaterial as the long term economics of the project with 2-2.5bn whares in issue are staggering particularly with phase 2 built and producing. I stand by my statement that Araguaia in due course can produce 3-5p in dividend which for most pre-financing investors is their investment back, per year. All to play for.

It looks like Orion will get a smaller slice of Araguaia than I expected. Confirms to me that they are really here for Vermelho. All good today, what a day for investors. Gla.

100% agree. Fwiw I dont think JM wants to mine for 30 years. Suspect he has 1 job and 1 job only to do here which is bring best value for shareholders into the coming nickel boom. Think he is younger than me. Will probably enjoy hos just rewards when the time is right at much higher ROI as you say. Gla

Thieves, my preference is a takeover but at full valuations. 2-3 more years for the company to build out the value then T/O in the 30-50p £;600m-£1bn mcap range. Lesd thsn total return over all time of course but reinvestable for same end result. I dont want a sale on the cheap. If they sold right now it wouldnt be for full value I suspect.