Member Info for wasarunner

(I think those are CAD not USD mind)

Teck Resources can afford us (2019 FY numbers):

Financial
• Revenues of $11.9 billion and cash flow from operations of $3.5 billion
• Gross profit before depreciation and amortization1, 2 of $5.0 billion

TDT I guess we agree sale is a likely outcome - as I said before I have no expertise on when this gets timed and you have good examples. I tend to think the longer we go (independent) the higher the sale value so 2023+ suits me absolutely fine! I do believe JM will only sell at premium. We have a very smart BOD.

I think T/O is as likely as not because a junior simply takes too long to pull all the resources together (cash, expertise, management teams) to concurrently run big build projects. Majors can immediately move the projects into top gear. If a major took over they could be producing 50-70kt/yr by 2025 something there is very little chance Horizonte can manage by themselves (putting aside for the minute JVs).

So as much as the BOD have the aptitude and capability to deliver mine(s), due to the impending nickel shortages, I do still firmly believe it is being set up for sale, at the best/premium value. I don't think shareholders will be disappointed when that happens.

For all the talk of divis I tend to agree it would be too far down the line (especially if Horizonte tried to fund the further builds from cashflows while trying to paydown capex on Araguaia P1). Just not going to happen. Sale in 0-3 years take your pick!

Vale planned 46kt:

http://www.vale.com/en/investors/information-market/press-releases/pages/a-cvrd-iniciara-o-desenvolvimento-do-niquel-do-vermelho.aspx

46+29=75kt/annum

In 2017 that would have put you 4th largest producer in the world, behind Glencore and ahead of BHP Billiton.

https://www.mining.com/top-nickel-miners-ranked-2017-production/

I rest my case :)

Musing further, and something JM always alluded to in interviews, the 29kt might be designed as 'bait' on Araguaia knowing full well that Horizonte won't get that far. We'll start/pretend to build a $14.5kt mine but look Mr Major 29kt is very possible if you buy us right now. I do believe 29kt starts to get interesting for majors and doubly so when combined with Vermelho capacity.

I can't remember what Vale proposed for Vermelho (was it 40 - 50kt?) But 29kt+40kt gets you definitely top 10, perhaps to top 5 producers. If the new BOD at Teck would like to read my comments here, you are most welcome.

Flavour - I think Horizonte will get premium it is just a question of when. Simply because there aren't many like it. At the point in sale JM will only want to sell at premium. If he thinks next year he will only be offered 'market value' he won't sell because we are premium - 3.5m tonnes, flexible product types (ferro/sulphate), lowest quartile says so.

I try to stay grounded just because historically the sp has been so paltry (compared to the potential) but darn right we should be valued at premium - both by the markets, and also and crucially by the buyer!!!

Very interesting scenarios. I have no experience of when the best time for T/O is ripe but I guess there are multiple factors:
- what point in the commodity cycle do they want to position (per TDT point)
- what point in the target acquisition lifecycle they want to move. De-risked (mine built) or earlier (cheaper buy?)

Must confess something always confused me here. If Horizonte build Araguaia per Horizonte spec, the major is missing out on a bigger mine. So it is one thing saying buy it when it is complete but then you have a 29kt limit you wouldn't otherwise have had.

I don't see it playing that way with Vermelho. I see a major wanting a bigger (sulphate producing) mine and I think we will be taken out before Horizonte starts building Vermelho to Horizonte spec.

I assume by construction you mean construction complete not construction commenced but maybe you mean the latter?

tones agree I see 2x-3x multiple at production from at finance complete.
what I don't fully understand is the trajectory between the two numbers. Will it move gradually/with nickel price/as the build hits milestones and de-risks. But 100% agree, the big money is in 2023+.

Brisk, I don't know all the trading platforms out there but my 2cents:
- for me a key consideration was flat fee vs any kind of fee based on portfolio size. As I intend to invest large amounts / have a large portfolio
- needs to be reliable. Some on this board have not managed to bed&isa since 6th April. It took me about 15 minutes x3 across the 3 ISAs I did it

I can recommend interactive investor, they have different price plans to suit different trading profiles (cheaper trading fee for higher trade volume traders etc). As I'm an investor I go with the non trading profile.

If you are looking for 'trading' as opposed to 'investing' tools you probably want to consider it slightly differently and others can advise. interactive investor has worked well for me over many years now - across the accounts we've got over £1m with them.

100% spot on. I've 9.5m shares in ISA so I would like to thank RG, CF and JPM individually for their contributions to making that possible. If I had a single ISA at todays SP that would have taken ~24 years to fill. Huge opportunities as you say to a. get 'em cheap and b. get 'em tax free. Time running out now though. We hope!

yep we've speculated before that the float here is actually quite small. The pesky II selling ruins the fun sadly. If there was buying pressure without that as the backdrop we would have been long further north as the company is quite clearly worth more than £56m (ex cash). At the moment from the transaction sizes on the buy side loads of 'last topping up' (ha ha) going on, then occasionally a 250k or 500k dump. Without the dumping where would we be?

And if it's larger PIs selling down gains from lower values maybe they've spotted the next big thing somewhere else. Can they please let me know what it is cos I'm not seeing much better (with a 5 week view let alone 5 year view!)

for the avoidance of doubt I'm not trying to manipulate the SP so I win the compo. It is complete coincidence that the current stated midprice is my estimate for Closing price at September 15:

4.9 wasarunner

As DJ said even a clock is right a couple of times a day.

I too now want this to stay below 5p to end next week. For top up and to max the bed&isa if I can get it done in that timeframe. That probably means it won't (stay low), but most on this board will be happy I jinxed it if it rises. GLA

just continuing that line of thinking I believe that may be a key difference between the current scenario and the Orion finance deal last year. Here we have expected newsflow in relatively short order culminating in finance package complete. Peeps know that, and it isn't too long a time away even for the AIM trader types not to keep some money put for the journey. It's why we shouldn't really see a big pullback or sell off now (I think!) If you think rerating news could be coming in the next 5 weeks - why sell.

The larger sells still feels like the overhang/II seller type deals to me. There's some slightly oversized sells. Maybe the seller has decided to accelerate the selling into the buying.

It is possible that we stick at 5p until there is news. If the seller hangs around offloading and the buys soak it up. The good thing is we're 5 weeks (plus change) from the end of Q3. Any news even vaguely positive is pretty much given to break the resistance. For my money we'll have more news in Q3, unlikely we get to Q4 without further developments here...

westie to be fair to the seller this is a better time than when the shareprice was 2.x and 3.xp! Just a shame they don't have a higher target or a longer timeframe...

Managed to recruit a couple more ISA's and will be doing bed&isa again soon hopefully. Slightly annoyed I didn't think of these family members earlier - like March then April would have been good. It'll be a million shares now instead of 4 million which would have been possible at the low on the tax year boundary across the two tax years.

Every buyer now is here for financing. Nobody is buying 4.9p now to sell sub 5p. So anyone buying is only selling 5p+ which means eventually we'll get above that number! I see sustained buying at these levels as a very good thing.