Member Info for wasarunner

>>I (respectfully) disagree with the posters here
By this I mean, posters who suggests todays SP matters to an approach now, or that a buyer would not pay premium above todays SP. I am sure in the history of mining many companies (especially minnows) have been sold on the cheap. Not going to happen to Horizonte, and also, we are no longer going to be a minnow. GLA.

I've been thinking more about a T/O and come to the conclusion I (respectfully) disagree with the posters here and also I have had conversations on twitter regarding a buyout at fair value.

Buying/selling mining companies is a market. Supply and demand just like any other market. So I always come back to the point, to buy Horizonte, what would a buyer be buying? A fully permitted, shovel ready, 3.5m ton nickel resource, with the bonus of being lowest quartile cost in a friendly jurisdiction.

Any reputable outfit, with deep enough pockets to buy a company like Horizonte will be looking at the following:
- How many assets like Horizonte are out there, in the world that they could buy and
- How likely are the company to sell, who is on the BOD and what is the shareholder structure

With Horizonte then we have an experienced BOD, including directors who have been involved in billion dollar deals. These guys have a reputation to maintain. There is very little chance they can be offered terms to part with the company cheap.

Then we have the shareholder register containing two of the biggest miners in the world. Both with a vested interest not to let the other take the company cheap as chips.

So I come to the conclusion that a buyer will have to offer fair value for the assets. Of course, they will start on the low side. The low side might be - £400m / £500m who knows. But they won't get it for that price.

I disagree that todays SP matters for sale, and I am using EUA as an example here. Slightly unusual how they have gone about it but EUA have managed to raise the SP from 0.4p before the 'for sale' sign being put up and 28/30p the other day at the peak. They managed to increase their SP 70x by doing what? They didn't build a mine. They received a permit. If Horizonte hoisted the 'for sale' sign and appointed UBS to invite tenders what SP then? 20p for starters.

SO on this stock the one thing that doesn't concern me (at all) is a cheap T/O. Not going to happen. Reputation damage to the company making the offer and it will be laughed out of the park. Then how much is enough? I think for most PIs, getting an amount now which equates to say 5 years in, or 10 years in you would take it. For either SP equivalence or blended return.

I sleep pretty easy that if the T/O comes it will happen above my original estimates when I invested here. My original targets were 20p (Horizonte stays independent) 30p (Horizonte gets a T/O). I stand by 30p being around starting offer if we are approached and there is substantial upside to it from there. I will follow the EUA story with interest because although it is a different resource, it has 'rarity' value also and the buyer I believe will pay premium, like they would here. GLA

600Thieves 19.5p
Flavourshaker 15.0p
Brisk 14.0p
Theaeo 13.0p
djryan777 12.0p
Nthoftheriver 10.5p
ilfc4life 10.0p
Nagyielad1 9.9p
WillieB. 9.8p
SeanT1967 8.5p
craigieboy1 7.5p
wasarunner 7p

Nagyielad good luck with the purchase hope it all goes through. If you can keep half of your shares, happy days, get a mortgage which allows chunky capital repayments and give it 3 years you will be making one! Gla

He's not going to announce more nickel needed with big Tesla contract to tell us at battery day his next gen batteries don't need it I think :) So I expect good news for nickel!

haha I'm only pointing out the obvious! Phase 1 A is set to produce 3x our mcap in nickel (gross) in year 1! Well ok maybe not year 1 but once the mine is properly firing.

Don't mind pumping. I'll be dumping (but only above 30p)....!

current mcap equals about ~4600 tonnes of nickel (gross value) at todays nickel price

I see still see upside from the other 3,495,400 tonnes contained nickel and whatever tonnage of cobalt, plus fertilizer of course.
GLA

Another 10% up from current SP we should cross £100m mcap and JPM can buy back the shares they sold sub 3p per their fund rules. The sell low buy high strategy. My strategy is the opposite, the buy low hold till 2025 for 30p strategy.

I know we don't earn anything yet but at least after todays move our P/E (factoring only Araguaia phase 1) is a tad over 1. Something like 1.25. So still lots and lots of upside for when we do earn something. Always assuming a decent nickel price of course.

Nthofriver although not direct newsflow on the company we could see significant for Horizonte's nearterm 'sentiment':
- Tesla battery day
- Nickel price
These two may further add momentum in the next couple of months to the big finance RNS...

My SIPP fund invested at £30m mcap. It has a lower entry requirement :)

didn't do much did he JM to get this to £100mcap. Just casually threw the $325m bank mandate out there. Who would have thought it....

dj is your middle name 'warren'? I'm starting to believe your estimates lol

they shouldn't have sold JPM's for 3.5p. Not feeling sorry for them at all.

I just had to type that to make sure it is real.
Aug 12 (2 weeks ago) we were around 3.5p!
Happy if we keep doubling around every two weeks from here.

what's next? trick question :)

If you're a trader you probably don't mind, you've probably already bought acp or something out.
If you're Westie and you want back in that's different! Probably for that kind of investor it is best not to be trading directly into the run in to news as like you say you can get locked out or have to buy back higher. Maybe sell on a more obvious pull back.

There isn't an obvious pull back in sight at the moment. After bank hold weekend we're into last month of Q3 with expected newsflow it is risky to be out if you want to remain invested here.

I don't think you can move between pension and SIPP as the two have very different tax handling and status. SIPPs have the specific pension rules.

Also a note, to transfer £20k to an ISA up until recently assuming say a buy price of 3p and a transfer price of 6p wouldn't incur CGT as the sale transaction generates a profit of £10k under an annual CGT allowance. If Horizonte goes up another 3p say the sell transaction on bed&isa starts to become CGT liable assuming a buy price of 3p. Not quite a problem for me yet but it will be a problem I suspect for bed&isa April 2021 -> suspect CGT will be due on what is being sold outside the ISA (some of it) for the bed&isa transaction.

I have to thank moneysponge for Horizonte (and EUA for that matter). I know cross posting is discouraged but if I end up filthy rich it was his post on advfn which first piqued my interest. He goes by different aliases here and on advfn but thanks in any case mate.

There are subtle and un-subtle ways of making people aware of your thoughts on investments and there is etiquette to follow and everyone should make their own minds up what to invest in but I've benefited so much from insight gained here and elsewhere and I am generally interested in tangential information - e..g will cobalt be required, or graphite, possible alternate sources producers/companies. Yes slightly O/T here but who has time to read everything and it is useful peripheral knowledge.

Anyway whoever and however we all came by Horizonte and how long, it has been a journey (a long one for some) which is about to reach fruition. I think most people can plan an exit whether it is imminent or in 2023 and beyond but whatever the case, this company is about to become substantially de-risked as an investment.

Thanks owlo the Brazil articles were really helpful. Need to keep abreast of the Brazil infrastructure developments as we build our own mines and your links will help. Good luck whether you exit at finance or later. Good luck with your investment whenever you exit.