Member Info for wasarunner

this is a cork you can't hold underwater at the moment. Press it down it wants to pop up. 12th August was debt news. Next news should be more signifiant for SP as it is a bigger 'unknown' - with the debt, we were assured it was going well, the final figure of course was very nice but you could argue priced in when we were given the per bank $65-85m appetite.

The next news won't really be priced in yet. Anything on further debt or offtake substantially de-risks equity. Next news could be the golden ticket IMO. GLA

Unexpected - my mate's wife is asking him why he didn't put the mortgage in here (now it is rising fast). If it had gone down he would be getting it in the neck. You can't really win hindsight trading :) Goes up you wish you'd added more, goes down you'd wish you'd never heard of the stock! Good luck with your investment hopefully builds you a pot you can build out from or diversify into other stocks once it reaches a good premium. Still plenty to go yet here.

you provided liquidity - someone was happy to buy your ticket - onwards and upwards we go and you have bagged a profit - nothing to be sorry for! Good luck with ACP (I already have some invested there).

On twitter a few saying IIs buying but I'm not sure. I don't see the big trades and volume looks reasonable but not spectacular, is this just a case of seller dried up and no stock? If there was sustained II buying I'd expect bigger trades maybe? Or are MM's raising the price to try and pick up stocks into a buy order?

I'm slicing a few at 20p. Should be later today at this rate...

>>10p feels very doable
haha. Looks pessimistic now with a whole 34 minutes of the first trading day gone and up to 9p!

Craig to be fair we were all a few weeks out! A few weeks ago the sp was off the bottom of the guessing scale, way south of my guess price... Who can time the market, is the moral of the story. Kind of a will of its own.

I need 8.82p for my next 'milestone'. Could be today...looking good.

Here is my take on September:
- nickel to strengthen, $16k looks very doable, how much higher?
- some news will come from Horizonte. 22 trading days, something will land. My feeling at this stage is a little concrete news will go a long way offtakes or further debt agreements as examples.

How high will we go in anticipation? 10p feels very doable. Still only £150k mcap and factoring a little dilution still very very good value for Araguaia taken standalone. I previously thought £100mcap/7p might prove a pre-finance ceiling but that has gone and with macro improving, surely 10p is the next target here. GLA

dj you on fb or twitter? Could DM. Passing through york in a few weeks time.

Absolutely nothing wrong with taking risk off and it is a very worthwhile thing both for the experienced and inexperienced investors. I guess my point is only this - people also should be looking at this beyond a trade to 7.5p/10p/15p bear in mind the TDT 50p/EUA equivalence 50p and possibly even higher prices if it sells. $83bn asset in the ground at $25k/t and $25k/t is coming due course. What will buyers pay? $bns with an s.

I committed 100% here, my other business interests lie outside stocks and keep the roof over my head and fed and watered. This is a conviction play which I am holding for a life changing outcome and I'll stick it out because I think it is coming. Have to confess it has been hard in the last couple of weeks processing it - since the start of the rise I've gained a paper gain equivalent to all my net earnings since I started work post uni - 25 years working. I thought I was prepared for that mentally, as I had that goal back since I put money on the table here in 2018 but it is hard to process. And given that this is the beginning of the journey - it is life changing for some. If I'm overly enthusiastic I apologise to the board - I've not had a win on this scale before (and most likely won't again)! GLA

dj agree we underestimate what we have here and people will do well to keep hold of their golden tickets.
When it kicked off last couple of weeks I started googling houses around where I live, been my dream to live in the country for quite a while now. But I realise if I wait sufficient time here I can start googling castles. It really is that good :) GLA

TDT the other thing I started typing but keep losing the page reception in caravan. It highlights the fact that sulphide cant meet the need and laterite/hpal is a must. A lot of the sulphide deposits are deep and need big capex. The added cost of hpal can be recovered if the resource is high grade enough (veremlho ticks that box) and sufficient infrastructure is available (ditto). It makes projects like Vermelho essential to meet the demand so people will need to accept laterites have a key part to play and this will further encourage investment into them. Can't see it being a problem to secure a partner for Vermelho. Lets see how it plays out.

pickedpeck indeed and hence my Germany comment - big steel manufacturer, big auto, bit behind on green energy initiative etc. Strategic interest countries like Germany have of securing their raw materials supplies. As you rightly point out US also. Nobody wants 100% reliant on China.

Chicken and egg isn't it. Probably a very viable project by the time the nickel is needed but hard to finance when nickel at $15k. I guess this is where 'bottom quartile' and 'modest capex' we score we win. There are many aspects of Horizonte which make it ideal, the only thing that would make Horizonte the carlsberg of a mine would be if Vermelho could mine sulphide and we didnt need hpal but you can't have it all :)

I am starting to think about Vermelho potential for news next year as I consider Araguaia financing 'in the bag' so to speak. Any serious hint even that something is happening or about to happen with it should add significantly to our valuation. Anything a bit more specific than 'lots of inbound interest'. Gla

>>with the difference that I don't feel the need to check the SP twice a day
Only twice a day?! Haha I know what you mean, always a good idea to operate within comfortable risk/confidence boundaries, this company for me is one of those where you can do that relatively easily. Have a good weekend everyone and next trading day is in the last month of Q3, but more importantly, the countdown to our competition result begins in earnest! Roll on September...

Throne, nothing wrong with selling well done hopefully you pulled some profit. But there are some counterarguments to this line of your statement:
>> As it's AIM, I see it as a risky, volatile share.
Yes some volatility. Risk? £17m cash in bank, well, not many AIM companies with that kind of bank balance.
I'd argue it is one of the least risky plays on AIM. And of course being TSX listed the reporting standard is higher.
Wonder how long we'll be on AIM when we're building a $443m mine and have a JV on a $700m mine? Not long. FTSE here we come....

MCX Nickel 15,445.00 15,500.00

and there we have day high. Very nice.

Doesn't take long to move $500/t does it?! Knocking on $15.5k soon.

Very very sweet timing at this rate at offtake sign-off time we will be sitting around the values JM was talking about baselining for the deals (the $16k/t area). You're right AIM a little wiggle room here in the months ahead and still start building in 2021, hopefully squeezing everything we can out of this deal by being patient. We want the right deal, not the quick deal.

looks like I put some off with talk of mid decade riches :() aim 'investors' want mid week riches! ha

For any new investors here or just picking up the nickel story why is early - mid decade exciting? It is on page 9 of the investor presentation, around 2025 we see a divergence of demand vs existing supply. Given that it takes up to 10yrs+ to develop new supply, projects have to be going through final stages of financing or permitting (cue - Horizonte!) to be production ready to meet the shortfall by mid decade at which time of course much higher nickel $ prices should be available.

Hence the task here is pretty well understood - get Araguaia 1 (and preferably also 2), and Vermelho in some state of production by mid decade and Horizonte will be 'printing the cash' so to speak.

Other scenario is that because the demand curve is known, and because EV uptake is likely to accelerate and prove the nickel demand forecast pessimistic, majors (Teck/Glencore/others) will have to scramble fast to buy up assets if they want a slice of this growing demand/supply deficit. Again cue Horizonte.

Multiple ways this can play out but it gets super exciting mid decade (or earlier). If people are thinking of selling, and a profit is a profit one can't argue with that, try and let some run and see what plays because 'nickel is the next gold' as Elon put it. I don't think he's wrong. GLA

https://horizonteminerals.com/news/en_20200602-investor-presentation.pdf