Member Info for wasarunner

Sorry link here:
https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/process/

Another risk to cross of is RKEF. Well understood process and can be costed pretty effectively, in use in over 40 mines around the world. Bread and butter in the nickel mining world and hopefully Mr Rodriguez has done his homework on it in the last 12 months or so since appointment.

https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/process/#:~:text=Today%20the%20RKEF%20process%20is,of%20the%20nickel%20produced%20annually.

HPAL for Vermelho of course a slightly different beast but the BOD have dangled the 'we would like to partner with someone with expertise' which of course also translates as 'show us your wallet' so all good. We can't really factor Vermelho in as a risk yet as it has negligible attributable value to todays SP. Pure upside, one might say :)

Prospect of an imminent T/O is certainly not a reason not to buy today at 8p of course :). It will sell a lot higher even if it sells a bit cheap and a bit soon for most investors liking.

FWIW I guesstimate probabilities as follows:
20% chance of offer at or before finance complete
30% chance during construction up to construction complete
30% in the 18 months or so post construction complete (i.e. end of 1st full year production)

I give Horizonte about a 20% chance of being independent around 2024-25 (and this might be generous!). But these are just guesses really, but most juniors I think aren't taken out at this early stage, at least with a few majors on the register. Nickel market prospects might see some fervent M&A in the sector imminently of course we will see. Roll on battery day and what Mr Musk has to say. GLA

waimea the main risk which concerned me, because I understood it least, was Brazilian politics risk (and not risks tied to the project or the company itself). Generally I fear left wing govt which does asset grabs when it suits them. But this should be a small small risk in a country where mining (by many many international majors) is a huge industry and further mitigation is Orion throwing in $25m which they would like a return on.

There was a risk financing didn't get done, but in all honesty that risk just doesn't exist any more. Banks wouldn't agree to the mandate if they didn't know where the rest of the money was coming from. And if you follow wider nickel market news, everybody, their grandmother, and cat wants nickel assets.

Lastly you have nickel price risk. What if we build a mine but it can't be run profitably? Almost impossible in Horizonte's case nickel would have to be trading well sub $10k/t. Not going to happen with the forecast deficit.

Is there a risk building a ferronickel mine / RKEF? Probably a bit but Mr Rodriguez has a palmares which looks pretty ready for the job. The nickel will be surface mining we won't be drilling a 2km deep hole. So one would assume scraping the stuff up on top and running it through the plant should work out fine.

Always chance of overrun on project timescales or cost, it is still complex engineering at the end of the day.

But all in all, this is about as safe a play (IMO) as you'll get on AIM which is why I'm 99% positioned here. There might be higher reward out there on another stock but on balancing risk/reward I'm happy this is around as good as they come. And still relatively cheap at 8/9p. GLA

Of course, exception is options expiring. If options are expiring you might want to exercise for that reason, and not to sell. I'd imagine the options expiring now would tend to have higher prices (Horzionte's shareprice was higher a decade ago) so they might not take those up before expiry if any are left.

>>An employee exercising their options isn't selling shares FFS, or freeing up money as some are saying.
Respectfully, I disagree. They're probably doing both - there is no advantage of them to exercise the shares unless they intend to sell (the option has lower risk than holding the share) and yes they have to buy, i.e. pay the company the money, but if they intend to sell then they bank the difference hence 'freeing up the money'. I call taking the difference between the option price and market price in cash then buying a house or a horse or a yacht or whatever 'freeing up the money'.

When I've worked in companies in the past tends to happen (but not always) when employees move on and leave. They become disconnected from the company.

But as you rightly point out, it doesn't matter. I'd be surprised if it had had any impact on the sp action this morning but who knows. If somebody sold on that basis yes, they should do more research as you say :-). I saw it as a positive. Nobody exercises below option price.

Yep I always work on 1.6bn shares inc options for my calcs.
Lets call new equity 400m shares just because it makes everything nice and tidy. Lets call it 10p - that's $52m new money at the raise.
Another $70m odd to find via other means (offtake/further debt) and we have 2bn shares. Mcap to £300m post raise 15p.

I think with 400m shares issued if Teck+Glencore took new shares (and nobody else) in the current ratio of their holdings Teck would be OK - by my calcs they would end up with 490m shares of 1.86bn (assume options still outstanding) 26.3% of company below the threshold for a mandatory bid. Teck might like that gets them close to the number they need eventually.

These are just my musings it will be interesting how it plays out but I do firmly believe the BOD have lots of options how to run this. Especially if Orion are knocking on the door wanting a slice of the action. GLA

My trade I'm targetting 10p area.
If they want substantial shares off me (the MMs) they'll have to walk it up to 20p!

Bought a small new tranche, pattern is too obvious. Unashamed to say it's a trade. Whiles away the days waiting for the proper rerates if you can't beat them join them (but not selling any substantive holdings!)

Nah I think you guys called it all wrong.

It's sellers selling up here to buy the next nickel miner with 3.5m tonnes contained nickel in a friendly jurisdiction lowest quartile yadda yadda as at £120m mcap they feel we're fully valued :-)

now if I could only find what the ticker for that other nickel miner is I'll shift my holdings asap!

Be interesting to see if it gets bought again. Seems a bit of a pattern, drop it a bit, try and hook some sellers then up we go.
Eventually if they have a buyer they have to raise it or they won't get enough sells to meet the demand. Interesting price action. Lot of news to come here I can't see us running out of steam but pauses are not unexpected!

Thinking about it, I think directors would do well NOT to exercise now, in case the market reads this wrong at critical juncture, whether or not they are able to sell. Hence I think this will be an employee. There are many ways you could read a director exercising depending on the situation a company is in and Horizonte will want to do nothing to upset the general momentum that is building for finance complete.

I would expect to see directors exercising post finance complete maybe, if they feel so inclined! Then there isn't price sensitive info out there. I know exercising isn't selling but still - you don't want the market to read this wrong.

Every time I've seen a director take up options in other companies I have invested in the director is named in the RNS. Anybody know if that's a rule or just good practice?
3m shares is a decent tranche for a single employee (non director). Could be Mr Rodriguez if he has been given the nod to start purchasing bits for his mine :)

AIM - if it's an employee not a director? I think if it was a director exercising the RNS would have stated the director. I would imagine an employee could sell unless they are privy to the finance negs.

mjb I find the current options broken down by director hard to come by (has anybody got a good resource?) but from memory JM's options are around 28m at various prices. The latest being at 4.8p is good news of course to shareholders here who have lower averages as his incentive of course is to get it much higher than this and keep it there!

It has been commented by people previously that relatively speaking our directors don't hold a lot of shares, most of their incentive is in options. It doesn't bother me too much especially now that we are above their option price.

05/08/2020 BUY HZM 0.0343
Possibly my last ever buy above? Crazy 155% gain in less than a month. And seems to have legs to go further. GLA

Nagyi - good news. Employees don't exercise unless the sp is high enough for them to 'take the win'. It means the sp has risen a bit no more no less :) and we're all quids in.

Market will swallow the shares asap as soon as the employee sells them. 3m shares is chump change for whoever is hoovering up everything from 4.5p -> 8.5p at the moment!

Shellbay, it does feel likely that somebody is loading but I doubt it could be Teck because they are privy to the finance negotiations I would think (they have a non exec on the BOD). They could well have information about the other aspects of the finance negotiated which puts them in a privileged position at the moment I would imagine it is very unlikely they can buy open market.

Whatever happens next though exciting times. We've shot way through my 'post finance complete' sp estimate so who knows where we land. I do feel equity will be very modest so you can recalibrate the value of this company around more like todays issued shares + options + 'a modest %' which brings higher sp into play post financing than I was originally envisaging. How high? I don't know I've underestimated this company a few times now so I won't try to guess. You won't find me complaining if we're north of 20p by the end of this year, maybe that's possible who knows. GLA

Lets keep the 1p 14% a day rises up till September 15th at least. Feels like the median guess could be reached and surpassed:

Closing price at September 15:

4.5 Everton1965
4.7 AnimalSpirit
4.8 600Thieves
4.9 wasarunner
5.2 Rover62
5.5 chrismar
5.8 UncleJohn
5.9 owlo
6.0 ngnInv
6.1 Harkin100

6.2 WillieB62
6.4 Gower7465
6.5 Mazza86
6.75 merlin_andrew
6.9 pickedpeck
7.1 D220
7.5 Shellbay
7.8 backinblak
8 Thechukkers
8.2 craigieboy1
-------------------------
8.76 Closing Price 01/09
-------------------------
8.8 Bungle99
9.2 Smoggy63
9.3 Unexpected3D
9.5 Nthoftheriver
9.9 Islandgirl
10 Harry_Ore
10.1 Sparticus12

10.2 BlueMonday (the median guess)

10.5 OscarRoberts
10.7 Caledonite
11 Flavourshaker
11.3 Titam
11.5 Finleyboy01
11.8 Haffyplan
12 Nagyielad1

12.2 LUKE1444
12.5 PopeUrbanII
12.8 ihowells
12.9 Scotsknight
13 Popuplights
13.3 Qualia
13.5 Brisk
14 marco777
14.26 fulmar29
15 djryan777

16 westie50
16.5 Worzel7
17.5 silkworm
21 SeanT1967
23.1 DickDabout
25 FiremanSam1968
27 Strevs
32 Ivornomoney
40 Luke2
41 notready1