Member Info for wasarunner

Luke I remember your posts when I joined/read up on Horizonte (think you had a different alias then) and was very informative then also. It was quite a quiet period for the co at the time I started researching. Thank you.

Also, finance complete adds value. 2 years were spent securing finance for Araguaia - thats time and money. A buyer taking it with finance package complete necessarily has to pay more than without because they dont have to do that themselves. Plus as somebody mentioned with 70%+ debt secured they can spend their cash on purchase cost not mine build. I know it isnt typical to get an offer pre build but must be a chance here with what we've got and whats coming for nickel. Gla

Over $300m spent 15-20 years by three companies (Glen, Vale, Horizonte) quantifying $50bn+ nickel. Thats why I think an offer that values us at less than a multiple of money and time spent, and a reasonable % of asset in the ground can be rejected outright by the BOD without putting it to shareholders. I see minimum 20p and even that wouldnt be acceptable 30p+ more realistic for first bid. Financing should get us to 15p let the bidding commence.

I also think we will be of interest to several parties so I dont see a single bidder when it comes. An interesting scenario is would for eg Teck and Glen be happy to divi up on Araguaia and Vermelho? Glencore adding to their ferronickel supply by buying Araguaia etc.

All in all looking very good here, just needs nickel price to stay stable for a couple more months and covid to stay manageable and we should be home and dry for next phase of this great company. Gla

Been wondering if we get an offer post finance with catalyst being lowest quartile. Normally you might not buy pre build because you might not have certainy on nickel price at production but here C1 is so low you make money in any market. Financing clears last hurdle. And you get it cheaper (whether we like it or not) as it will factor around todays nickel price not the long distant nickel price. I see a reasonable possibility of an offer post finance and you dont want to be out when that comes! Gla

0.5p divi would give me and partner more income than presently from business/employment. And much more is possible but I'm not sure we'll make it (remain independent etc.) Araguaia itself could pay about 3-4p easy once capex is paid down (which could happen from e.g. Vermelho sale). GLA

DJ that's amazing, shows what's possible in this game with a bit of luck and trailing wind (and research and all the hard work of course). Just looking at his shareholding if he moved it here he could double Teck's holding and just about get to the offer level. Always assuming he could get the shares ha!

I may have been wrong yesterday if for e.g. Strummer bought £1.5m lets call that a £100k these larger trades could be PIs with deep pockets but no matter - we know what is coming here and if people want to join the party the more the merrier. It turns out most of our ii's were too impatient to wait for the big payday here anyway so more to the PI's I say and absolutely nothing wrong with that.

Amazing to see GGP chart. Assuming we have similar assets here we assume that kind of share price graph will happen to us at some point. I don't know when they'll be producing whether 2 year lag to production here will put people off but perhaps not if the noises around nickel keep getting stronger. All to play for! GLA

Nagyi - during my time invested here we rarely see trades of size £115k, £85k etc. unless something is going on. In the past, it's been ii's selling out. Occasionally we had a big buy (Cannacord added for their clients).

Of course, the SP has doubled/trebled so expect bigger trades for same number of shares but these don't feel like PI's buys/sells. It feels bigger.

In my experience on other stocks like EUA it means something is happening in the background and a big player is taking some position.

Are they definitely buys? Hard to tell with the narrow real spread?

I'm confused that the price isn't rising. Proper money being spent but we're at a level. Don't understand how that happens - who's selling?! Or do the MMs hold enough shares at the moment to fill these if they are buys?

Separately of course with > £100m mcap a new ii would need to spend > £3m to get a notifiable interest, it would be good to get one but not seeing it yet - it would take a few £100k trades to get to that number. But it does feel like something is brewing here. GLA

Yes - with $7k/t indicative cost and anything $18-25k/t revenues I would expect EBITDA to be a significant margin in our case. The benefit of being lowest quartile after all!! But agreed all needs to be considered alongside other indicators - life of mine, grades, etc.etc.

Thanks ivor.

Personally (again all just opinion really) the EBITDA estimate looks light. Maybe they have to be cautious but it looks like nickel $17k/t ish and only Araguaia P1 in production. Maybe they need to be pessimistic/under estimate at this stage but for my money:
- Aragauaia P2 can be fastracked if the will is there (will = massively inflating nickel prices) and
- if we're anywhere close to 1m additional tonnes of nickel needed by 2025/annum I think nickel price will be well north of $17k/t.

Our earlier guesstimates hopefully less than 2bn shraes in issue - I am working on 2bn these days. £300mcap = 15p. That's what I'm hoping by end of year happens. GLA

Investor presentation is even better starting point IMHO. Tells us how rich we'll all be in time!

https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/investor_presentation/

Hi RogueRoger it is of course the interesting question and yes I agree in fullness of time this is $bn company in the making as the NPV justifies it (eventually). What discount to NPV we trade, well, the market decides that, and who knows why we are still around £100mcap while other companies similarly positioned much higher. Most here agree we are at far too big discount to NPV right now but hopefully the financing round fixes that.

Financing will provide lots of catalyst - de-risking but also will raise the profile of Hoirzonte as we transition from explorer to producer. Once we are on the map for investors (apart from the early II's PI's already positioned) that gap should start closing. For my money something like £300m mcap would seem very reasonable (cheap really) post finance complete and then run up from there towards production especially if nickel price plays ball. Really mcap should start tracking to nickel price closer we get to production.

Vermelho of course is the dark horse. How to value it? We don't really know what type of mine will be built (ferro/HPAL) and by whom (Horizonte will not develop it alone). Once those questions start to be answered it should start factoring into the mcap.

But with the long game view on (I'm only here for the long game) $bn/£bn company in the making so serious upside here. In a strong nickel market (and I think $20-25k/t is not only possible, but likely to be coming in years ahead) as you say multi billion $ NPV here. So all in all, lots to play for. GLA

Well there are 2 actually. Listed in my ii account is 7.65. That makes Shellbay and backinblak the winners with 7.8 and 7.5 equally spaced. How to decide the outright winner? Guess the date of the next (non price monitoring) rns? Neatest date wins?

Separately could each of you please DM me the lottery numbers for this weekend draw. Thank you! Gla

Wow £115k for 1.5m shares. Back in April it was possible to get just over a million into the ISA in one allowance. £20k! How times change. If I'd only had a crystal ball then..... oh I did :)

Thanks westie i am a bit of a noob on my phone. I think the point I would make is class1/class2/laterite/sulfite all pretty irrelevant with that kind of demand curve of course always assuming they can find enough nickel to keep the ev boom going. But it must be guaranteed that ev will suck a lot of existing supply away from stainless and it is that combined deficit we are in for with our mines and optionality. Nickel will be over $25k/t when there isnt physically enough of it. Or more.

Kitco news reckons 3.5-4m tonnes nickel needed a year by 2030 (sorry cant link it here) by coincidence our contained resource we could meet global supply for 1 year. Scary numbers up from 2.2m tonnes today thats 30x(Araguaia+Vermelho combined production) per annum. Extra! I think we will be selling them for much more than $15k/t personally. Gla

Today is the compo close - I'm travelling with work but will update with the winner after the close. Lets hope 8p gets broken and we can have a new set of players into the game. Gla

Closing price at September 15 (I'll take the 5pm price listed in my interactive investor account) on Tuesday.

Seems unlikely that we would close above the median guess nice juicy RNS notwithstanding!

4.5 Everton1965
4.7 AnimalSpirit
4.8 600Thieves
4.9 wasarunner
5.2 Rover62
5.5 chrismar
5.8 UncleJohn
5.9 owlo
6.0 ngnInv
6.1 Harkin100

6.2 WillieB62
6.4 Gower7465
6.5 Mazza86
6.75 merlin_andrew
6.9 pickedpeck
7.1 D220
7.5 Shellbay
7.8 backinblak
8 Thechukkers
8.2 craigieboy1

8.8 Bungle99
9.2 Smoggy63
9.3 Unexpected3D
9.5 Nthoftheriver
9.9 Islandgirl
10 Harry_Ore
10.1 Sparticus12

10.2 BlueMonday (the median guess)

10.5 OscarRoberts
10.7 Caledonite
11 Flavourshaker
11.3 Titam
11.5 Finleyboy01
11.8 Haffyplan
12 Nagyielad1

12.2 LUKE1444
12.5 PopeUrbanII
12.8 ihowells
12.9 Scotsknight
13 Popuplights
13.3 Qualia
13.5 Brisk
14 marco777
14.26 fulmar29
15 djryan777

16 westie50
16.5 Worzel7
17.5 silkworm
21 SeanT1967
23.1 DickDabout
25 FiremanSam1968
27 Strevs
32 Ivornomoney
40 Luke2
41 notready1

TDT feels a bit like a who blinks first scenario. You wonder how much final say Horizonte gets but if a couple of majors (or more) enter a bidding war surely very little - you must end at a price in that scenario which enough shareholders will take. Glencore/Teck is a really interesting situation because if one doesn't want to hand it to the other easily (or indeed, it is a third major who wants to snap it up from Teck & Glencore) we're in for a hell of a ride as shareholders!

Teck & Glencore have JV's on other projects so it is not inconceivable one would release it to the other for a concession elsewhere but it is a very interesting scenario. It is almost like a bit of a fluke that assets were purchased from each and assembled by Horizonte. If Vale had been kept on board after Vermelho purchase for a small equity stake it would be even more interesting - 3 way tug of war down the line!

Only a matter of time I think. It wouldn't surprise me at all if we had an offer before build starts. Must be a decent chance - I'm not banking on it - and it isn't what I invested for - but it would be an interesting scenario. Shareprice would rise, that's for sure! GLA