Member Info for wasarunner

O/T dj, 100% believe you and also, I do want to pay a visit to your pub sometime it looks a good place been to Scarborough before but I'm a bit locked down at the moment. Sometime post financing will come down for the afterparty! Unhappy days up here at the moment, life is far from normal at our place.

I'm super chilled but I can afford to be, I've pushed out my time horizons very much so (I'll happily wait for phase 2 production - I reread the DFS for Araguaia and that would be some way behind phase 1 - of course it is made possible earlier with higher nickel prices if Horizonte are financing it entirely out of cashflow. I do believe Vermelho will get a deal/sold in the meantime. Literally my only goal now is 11.7p in the interim, at any point of time, makes my non SIPP shares worth £2m and I can sit back and enjoy the ride from there. Visit other investors pubs and drink to our mutual good health etc.

Wishing all here best of fortunes and much patience. At the end of the day investing is mainly a patience game once you've done the research and got it right. Elon musk says you got the research right here.

Sorry couldn't resist. GLA

Facts as I see them:
- today is Q4
- JM was pretty definitive that the goal (Covid second wave aside) was to seal the deal in 2020
- forget second half of December nobody closes deals then

So we have a pretty exciting 10 or so weeks to look forward to? Could it slip? Possibly. Will nickel play ball? It is recovering a bit as we speak. Curvballs? US elections possibly.

I still feel we're on track and the radio silence doesn't bother me. I looked back at my trades, I bought 3.43p beginning of August and 8.2p beginning of September less than 30 days later. That's the kind of potential effect on SP newsflow can have, over that kind of timeframe, and I am absolutely convinced the next news isn't priced in the the SP.

GLA

sorry didn't read it's a purchase. Never mind. He is getting good experience of M&A. We like M&A. GLA

I like he is getting practice at selling businesses... if he gets it wrong on the first he learns from it and gets a better deal on us!

All true, but if there isn't an interview with Crux, all is well IMO. Jeremy is busy and we want Jeremy to be busy right now...

I really hope an interview doesn't emerge stating lots of things we already know. Lowest quartile on cost etc. BRING ON THE FINANCING I SAY! GLa

Indeed, no investor disagrees with favourable tax treatment in their sector :)
There are potentially (sadly in a way) benefits Covid can bring to Horizonte. Accelerated move to green energy following breather from burning so much fossil fuel, and govt funding/infrastructure projects/cheap investment money to kick start economies being just some of them.

I think the demise (yes I know it won't happen overnight, of course) of oil is potentially very positive for Horizonte also. Big miners under pressure to cycle out of fossil fuels and cycle into future commodities. He's not (completely) daft Bolsonaro.

Also all well negotiated business deals go to the wire. Our directors owe us to negotiate every % they can get. Similarly Orion's investors on their side. Doing a duff deal is easy. Doing a good deal takes time. GLA

Paddyboy I hope you're right - I always felt with the crux interview when it got announced that news was likely to have to come beforehand to enable the interview. It is eminently possible that JM thought something would close, booked the interview, then had a setback on timescales on the particular news item he wanted to follow. It makes much much more sense to go on interview post news - I really feel they aren't marketing the company right now, they are closing deals. Go with full fanfare post news.

I'm not an expert in deals of this magnitude by any means but business sense tells me the last 10% of the deal is the tricky bit to negotiate. Establishing the principles is often easy (at the end of the day parties are either interested or not) but the full legals, caveats, safeguards etc which have to be agreed by all parties. It takes time particularly where one component is dependent on the other - debt on equity and vice versa. And until it is done, there is not much you can announce to the market other than 'things are progressing'. GLA

Bwana I am sure nobody meant any offence, occasionally we have someone come on and throw the odd one liner then disappear it is natural sometimes to assume a deramp. All welcome here!

I'm keen to hear the views of people newly researching the company with wider knowledge of markets in any case wider perspective is always very welcome. I've been invested 2.5 years here now sometimes it is easy to get a blinkered 'all is rosy' view :)

But hopefully all is actually rosy. GLA

Also, the fact that something is _bound_ to happen with Vermelho in the year or two after Araguaia finance complete is the reason it is madness to sell up on Araguaia finance complete. Assuming Vermelho is the better asset, and contributes nothing to the shareprice at this point, you are essentially passing up > 50% of the pizza by selling up post Araguaia finance.

The only worse time to sell up than post Araguaia financing complete is now - pre Araguaia finance complete!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54351815

The beauty of Vermelho is it is 'ready enough' but not 'too ready'. Clock is ticking Messrs Vale, Teck, Glencore, BHP. Elon won't wait forever...

Flavour apologies if this posts twice having problems with the site or my browser! My view on Vermelho is - and I really like this situation - Horizonte have declared (and it is probably true) that we don't have the capability to develop it ourselves. But whether or not it is true it doesn't matter, it has dangled the carrot very much out there.

It will take some years to develop, who knows how long, shorter timeframe for a company with deeper pockets.

It is a huge asset, better than Araguaia. I do believe that puts pressure on anybody already at the table with Horizonte, or mulling a purchase. The pressure is on because if you want to hit 2023-25 with production (from Vermelho) you'd better be thinking seriously about your offer right now.

I like this situation because I think the offer will come (Vermelho is too good to pass up) and the 'time pressure' element means existing shareholders will see a return sooner than later.

If Horizonte were to go on to develop it it would be earliest second half of the decade for production IMO and whether or not it misses the cycle - it is still a way away. Most PI's will have sold up and bought Covid stocks or the next big thing by then.

So in summary - I'm very happy to hold for Araguaia production, which I think Horizonte can get to, including 'phase 2' production some years later. I do believe in the meantime Vermelho will get monetised and perhaps the whole company. But the one scenario I don't really see is Horizonte developing Vermelho themselves. And the time pressure for our buyer is on if they want to hit the sweet spot of Mr Musks demand curve. GLA

Flavour - yes I do believe there is pressure (from a buyer) to get Vermelho progressed and I like it. I like the fact Horizonte don't have to do anything, they've said they are building Araguaia, shareholders have plenty to look forward to, leave it there and if somebody really wants to hit the 2023-25 sweet spot with Vermelho production they probably need to be at the table now, or mulling an offer.

The time pressure works for us, shareholders, if we believe Horizonte don't have the capability to develop both mines. Right now, for 2025, I suspect we don't. But somebody else will. I don't think anybody on this board would complain too much if we monetised Araguaia (or the whole company) sooner than later, of course always providing the price is right. GLA

I meant of course araguaia finance complete 15p.

Or sale. So you sell your shares 15p araguaia build complete, jobs a goodun. Horizonte sells Vermelho 15p special div the following year you just missed your 15p shucks. Absolutely of value to stay invested to see what happens with second project whichever way it pans out. Gla

In summary Vermelho is a very nice cherry to ice the cake with but for now, the attention should be on Araguaia as it is the cake. But Vermelho may get the sale (asset or company) so the ev story is an important one.

Brisk we dont have defined timescales on Vermelho would be very surprised it Horizonte could get it running by anything like 2023 (remember, financing Araguaia from dfs has already taken 2 years and it is 2.5yrs away from producing). Could a JV/major? Maybe but more likely 2024-25 and then what is retained by Horizonte anyway, more likely to be a sale imo. The major/jv partner still has to complete dfs, permitting, financing, build. Though they might find financing easier of course.

The accelerating ev demand will apply a nice bit of gravity to Vermelho but (imo only) more towards a sale than Horizonte being able to do anything with it in first half of decade. Thats my plan a. thinking anyway. Plan b. for me is Horizonte develop it for second half of decade, they can probably do it and nickel will be in demand, and I can wait. But sale much more likely earlier imo.

I like the fact Jeremy is busy to tie down. Hopefully busy dotting i's and crossing t's. GLA and have a good weekend!