Member Info for wasarunner

Yes you can profit from others boredom also. I'm profiting from JPM's boredom, it turns out they 'gifted' me another couple of hundred grands worth I put in at 3.5p area and didn't really understand why we were so low in Q1 2020 (sadly I incorrectly didn't predict covid for the lower lows). JPM got bored - we got rich. All good it is how it should be.

Orion will be prepared to pay 10p and that will set a bar. I think the BOD will be playing Orion against Teck/Glencore and others will already be at the party table. When 'equity' component RNS lands I think we will be north of 10p that day.

Would really like it before US elections. Timescale tightening on that front though so may not happen by November.

Bwana - I'll be surprised if you get under 8p if it is the equity component announced as part of the package. You may get it when other elements are offered (royalty/ further debt).

Many here (me included) believe equity will be done >10p for the finance round as the miners have all previously put in at these numbers, and they will essentially be buying into Vermelho for free. If that does happen, we would expect the share price rapidly to rerate to the equity round price - I expect this to be north of 10p.

So there could be news before then which de-risks and slowly moves us but there is significant chance of a rapid jump >10p on 'finance complete' RNS. All IMHO only etc.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-54373774

Just one such fund, but £3.5bn is not chump change and looking to cycle out of fossil fuels and into 'renewable energy'. Multiply this across the globe, there is a very very very large amount of investment needing to find new homes. Again just great to be ahead of the herd!

markets are imperfect which provides the wily investor an opportunity to get rich, who would have thought it.
I like being here before the PE guys (Orion + whoever else is yet to join our party). They're normally early to to the game, being ahead of them is good news IMHO

Thanks both - yes I understand the 'boredom' factor and used to have a small trading pot for exactly that purpose, I'm sure many do. I've got bored with trading for chump change now though and await the biblical RNS! Boredom I think is the one thing an investor has to overcome, I've struggled in the past and determined to make this one stick. Even post finance, and I'm sure there will be serious temptation to sell if we achieve anything 12-20p.

If you thought (like me) one day this share is worth 30p-£1. Would you sell 8p to try and buy back 6p? Genuine question. I wouldn't but just curious if others would. It's a tough call because Vermelho sale would, for e.g. and IMO land in an RNS and we would have no forewarning and could easily add a 25p div to the SP. SP could go 6p->30p shortly after 8am one morning.

I wouldn't take that chance to be out, would others? GLA

The lse site has been playing up. Seems to happen from time to time... usually when something kicks off on EUA :-)

Just to be clear - at $50k/t that's what our nickel is worth. At those numbers we can give away the fertiliser free. Not bad for a £100m mcap company.

Just watch our SP when Elon announces his next 80% keserite battery. Wowsers. We'll defo hit 7p then....

Just to add in terms of BOD incentive, mostly held as options, I believe JM has around 28m, many issued a couple of years around Araguaia DFS at 4.8p. Some lower, some back in the day higher.

So for anybody buying at anything around current price, their incentive is well aligned with the BOD to get the shares substantially higher at multiples of where we are today.

I'm loving being below JM's option price with my stake of similar size, of course I had to part with hard earned for mine and I don't get to listen to what's being discussed right now behind the closed doors. But one hopes he is working hard for his, and our interests in all of short, medium and long term! GLA

>>Do people also know we have a fertiliser by-product ?!
dj stop talking fertiliser. I'll shut up now - nearly time for Malbec :)

Still whatever we're doing it is working, the sp is very gradually rising ha! Right back to work.

I've met Simon Retter. Solid guy. Jeremy Martin has been at the helm a long time and the non exec team are very strong. One of the non execs sold his last company for $bn and we all hope he can do the same here :) Plus we have a non-exec director from Teck Resources on board. Bodes well for an eventual transfer.

Yes Glencore are also an intermediary for nickel which might work very well for us to obtain our customer (either offtake via Glencore directly or indirectly).

https://www.glencore.com/what-we-do/metals-and-minerals/nickel
https://www.glencore.com/what-we-do/marketing

"We physically source commodities and products from our global supplier base – and sell them to customers all over the world. "

can't say fairer than that. Good to have them onboard - and they are aware of our assets as they sold some of them to us :)

No worries - some are heavily invested here Bwana (me included - I hold above 23m shares) so money where our mouth is so to speak. Aware of the risks but IMO (only) this is as derisked as you get on AIM particularly with the Orion investment which really should have catapulted us to a different league (but didn't, due to the institutional sell down over time which followed). We are at the critical point in this companies lifetime, it is an exciting point as there could be directions set we aren't yet aware of.

D220 haha looks like early Malbec for you :) nice one. Wish I could join you but still trying to work...

Bwana valid questions, many have relatively straightforward answers - I'm working at the mo can't answer them all but sure others will. e.g. JPM fund manager pulling out of small cap space etc.etc.

But yes of course there remains risk. No risk = no reward, of course.

Price target, mine when I first invested was 20p (no firm date, just as and when we were producing, with or without Vermelho), that is very pessimistic if we don't dilute too much through the financing. I figure EACH MINE at production can be worth 25-50p. We almost certainly can't retain 100% of Vermelho, and phase 2 of neither Vermelho and Araguaia is likely to be running in 5 years, but I will stick it out there that you would be very disappointed to have less than 30p aggregate in 5 years time (either with Vermelho part/full sale) and/or Araguaia P1 fully runinng and P2 being built.

Anything from 30p-£1 might be possible, my target is very much 30p and I intend to sell none until we are taken out or we get there. GLA

Thanks Lotto good analysis. Lets face it (Covid operating restrictions aside) we should be making money at copper sustainably above $3 and gold >$1800. It will be great when we see the production numbers start to feed through into sale of product at these prices in the next quarter or two assuming always the ramp up remains on course. GLA

Thanks mate I'm mentally locked down by it all not physically. Everyday problems to deal with in business and life because of the virus - I know it is the same for everybody so don't want to complain too bitterly others have it worse. GLA invested here we will see positive news in Q4 I am pretty certain of it. And when your investments aren't performing well there's always a Malbec to turn to for comfort. At least nobody has locked Malbec down yet.

Been reading a lot recently how constant negative press leads to collective anxiety. You see this all the time on markets (flight / fight panic etc. on big bear runs) but it happens with Covid too. It is a real shame - yes it's a problem, yes we have to take measures, but the constant negative press and govt this and that directions makes the overall effect far worse than it could be. It affects everything - physical/mental health etc. And it is collective - once people fear for their futures, jobs etc, sadly everything becomes self fulfilling.

It's going to be a tough winter for many, people need to keep spirits up. Mine will be up if we see 11.7p. GLA