Member Info for wasarunner

definitely a target but will they wait till the mine is derisked (built). We will see! I hope it's sold by Christmas have an eye on some presents...

It'll be interesting to see when and if FOMO kicks in here. By my reckoning if we're on track to finance package complete we've got circa 8-9 weeks left till you want to seal it (nobody will be doing business over Christmas unless we are doing a deal with Chinese cos).

At some point that makes this a compelling trade to people who want a 50-100% trade over, say, a couple of months period. We're not quite seeing that yet though nice to see new posters/faces appearing so maybe some momentum gathering in that department. More the merrier I say bring it on. GLA

News here will have a double positive effect IMO:
- any funding news which isn't equity, which reduces remaining capex needed from equity will raise the shareprice (as the total % of project to be funded by equity will be reduced correspondingly)
- the rising shareprice will convince investors that equity (if any) will be done at higher price (than, say, todays 8p).

So for my money - any finance news which is not the existing $325m senior debt package, and which isn't equity, is not yet priced into the SP and will have a double additive effect on SP. I'm very hopeful we can get away with at least half of the remaining capex requirement, hopefully more, to be done non-equity leaving a modest tranche at a reasonable SP (but certainly above 10p) to be done through equity.

One thing I am 100% sure of is no further finance news is priced in at the moment and any at all should result in a rise. That is a nice situation to be in given we have reasonably definitive timeline guidance from co, this is very investable even on a very short term time horizon which should appeal very much to the trading fraternity. GLA

It's a huge positive imo that a couple of years after a forecast it is already proving too conservative. We may see that repeated again as the full scale of the ev transition is better understood. It would be ironic of course if pace of adoption was held up or slowed due to lack of nickel availability! But as investors in two tier 1 nickel mines we won't be complaining. Gla

Well done holding Nitrokev I switched slightly early (to here) but no regrets. It is good to see other shares also doing well and one assumes once people have an exit (for example if the sale at EUA goes through) a lot of the cash PI's make finds its way to other AIM opportunities (as well as yachts cars and the likes, obviously) so in the long run is good for Horizonte's shareprice also. It's all about risk reward and I genuinely feel risk is low on Horizonte relative to potential reward hence my switch and also hence my massive investment (relative of course, but for me) here. Good luck in EUA in the meantime and I hope your switch works out.

>>Wasa how much palladium does EUA have? A comparable amount to HZMs $50-$100b?
Hi Flavour - short answer - comparable I think (some debate over how proven it is) but the resource is more 'unique' than what we have, there are less palladium deposits around in the world than nickel deposits. But we trade that here for a resource which is in mass demand (the wold doesn't need 4m tonnes of palladium a year in 2030!) So at super high level they are both very valuable companies, direct comparison of course should never be made but suffice to say at 35p at EUA with nearly twice as many shares in issue than Horizonte equivalence in mcap would see us around 70p here. That's 20+ bags from my average and I wouldn't complain!

It will happen one day here, EUA are pitching for $bn M&A transaction and I think when our time comes, we will be doing the same. I think the nickel market will drive the timing but there is every chance it happens sooner than later here. The reality is the later we sell the more $ we will land so although patience is a hard game, got to be patient here and the rewards will come. GLA

EUA has seen ~100 bags touched in just over a year perhaps today at 35p, epic stuff (even by AIM standards!). Perhaps a unique situation, great BOD and great asset, but we also have both of those and perhaps a commodity which will be the talk of the town for the next 10-15 years. Our day will absolutely come, I bought EUA 3.5p sold 11.5p (early it turns out) but I have seen a vitrual 10 bags there had I held, and I believe 10 bags here at Horizonte is also nailed on from 3.5p. $50-100bn of assets here says so. So keep the faith everyone, EUA shows fairytales do come true, and we have one here in the making, perhaps different timescales but our time will come. EUA shareholders will be very happy with their exit, and I'll wager Horizonte shareholders will be too, in time. GLA

Thanks pickedpeck interesting indeed, my mrs can't swim and isn't one for the seas but I've sailed before and it is good fun. Just don't trust myself out on the open sea really but the idea appeals, for sure! I'd have to have enough wealth to hire a competent skipper :) Other than that I love travel, the more remote the better, the further from other people the better. UK is a bit small island for me I think long term elsewhere for travel though may keep a modest base here. The open road appeals in any case in transition years. I love the world, I think of it as one place, I've travelled very extensively. Hopefully more times for travel ahead, albeit someone needs to come up with a decent solution to the current crisis! Probably less of a problem for you on a boat though. But yes I get it - similar thing, your home is mobile and you eat and sleep in it. When I was young I toured Europe by bike same thing. Tent on the back when I got tired camped down for the night amazing times. Weeks and weeks, country after country. Amazing place the world. Anyway enough of the O/T I'll stay quiet, even quieter than DJ until news. GLA

dj my understanding of being a publican (I've known a couple) is its a way of life. And wheeling and dealing is in the blood once you're in it it's hard to hang up your boots. Look at sasa still investing almost certainly doesn't need to do so :). So I get where you're coming from and I'm not one for doing nothing either. Just be nice to not answer to somebody else's timescales and to free up time - I think freeing your mind you can achieve more anyway. A lot of people I've met in working life are constrained by what they do for a living. Given free reign I believe we are all more creative than the dayjob allows us to be. I'll create something hopefully for the next 20-30-40 years just not necessarily for cash and certainly not necessarily to make somebody else money :)

Sorry about the O/T but its a slow day waiting for news and I'm at the caravan windy day bugger all else to do :)

Flavour, plan is once full exit (business) to buy a tourer and tour southern Europe looking for a nice place to call 'winter residence'. Take plenty of time doing it, I don't speak spanish, but fluent French and get by in Italian, essentially they're all almost the same language anyway :). Then buy something down there with a view. Either just keep the static caravan up on the north coast or get a small cottage up here. Anyway exciting just to be touring around in a caravan checking up on the investments. You still need to play it smart, and you still need to live modestly but reckon I can manage it, never been a big spender. I figure if you can live on half the income from investments and reinvest the other half, you're doing pretty well and probably outperform inflation easily. I won't need to pick another Horizonte I don't think but you need to invest wisely because 2008 shows your 'safe haven' stocks like RBS might not be quite so safe if you've got megalomaniacs in charge. Anyway as I said will be a nice problem to have.

In the meantime back to the dayjob. Wonder what JM is up to? Hopefully dotting some i's. GLA

Bit old for my age (46) but have to say I can highly recommend to anyone who hasnt experienced it leisurely mornings at the caravan checking investments around market open and market close and going out for the day. Something magic about making money without working for it. I worked darn hard for 25 years so far albeit with my head rather than hands some would argue (possibly with reason) that's not real work but it sure was a grind at timess.

Quite excited about the next chapter, for us its going to look like business sale and earn out which will overlap nicely with horizonte gaining value, to complete around 2023-25 then more caravan time. Been a good innings at the coal face but no regrets here leaving it behind. Hopefully Horizonte can produce meaningful or life changing outcomes for others on this board. Gla

Is twitter crew cranking it yet full gas :). Just joking spreads the word. News oaround corner or just q4 effect? They should be the same thing really as co have told us q4 is newstime!

The company have near, medium and long term value drivers (lets call these financing, production/vermelho, 2m ton nickel deficit respectively for simplicity). It really is blindingly obvious what to do. Hold, dont sell a share. If possible, add. If not already in, buy. Any of the recent prices even 9p is bargain basement territory with whats coming.

The valuation gap will fill, how quickly depends on the news that is brewing but it is nailed on that we wont be single digits much longer. I've already mortgaged everything I can to buy here in fact we are trying to sell the house but no chance that will happen before I can sink it in here. Sometimes things in life are blindingly simple and this is one of those times :)

Pickedpeck I will post less when the deal is done (finance or sale) as we are set on course then. At the moment it is quite exciting as the direction is being set, speculating is fun. It feels nearly, but not quite there.

I absolutely concur with you we wont be independent and it is really the demand drivers that will drive the valuations (of Horizonte, Araguaia or Vermelho). An early offer will derive less value, naturally, but I am very comfortable that we understand what we have here and it wont go cheap. I spend more time at the moment planning an investment strategy post Horizonte than thinking about what to do with any surplus proceeds. Kind of a nice problem to have of course but my post Horizonte portfolio will be more diversified of course.

I dont know if Teck and Glencore can wait with an offer here tbh very long. Writing is on the wall we, and our assets will be in demand and they wont want them snatched away by a leftfield bid. How they position in the equity round to build a blocking position will be interesting too. An offer just after finance complete perhaps? Who knows but all to play for. Gla

https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/stainless-steel-market

This is why I intend to hold well into the decade. Lot of excitement and justifiably so around ev but a cagr of 5-7% of stainless steel demand will drive similar additional nickel demand for ferronickel, perhaps an additional 1m tonnes by 2030. This makes Araguaia as valuable as Vermelho woth whsts coming and is oftrn overlooked. It really will be a very simple supply/demand crunch exacerbsted by the fact that China via Indonesia has crippled prices over the last decade which has meant a lack of project development. We are in the eye of the storm and if demand is anywhere near 4m tonnes of global nickel by 2030 we will be laughing here. My intention is to hold for the decade or sale, whichever comes sooner. Gla

I've stopped looking at profit as I am in for long haul. 11.7p gives me £2m valuation ex sipp which is enough to start downsizing other aspects of work life - selling business and the like. Will we get there post financing? Reasonably hopeful that we will but and in any case, with whats coming for nickel we will be much higher in years ahead. I have no interest in trading it, hold the golden tickets till fortune changing news (company sale) or production and beyond.

If people are following wider nickel news and other companies we know where we are headed. I dont necessarily even think it will take long. Gla.

Congrats Funky. Wishing the baby, family and investments all well :)

I am not sure if Vale knew that Vermelho was amenable to hpal - the Horizonte study proved this. Also in 2005 I imagine hpal was a bit wobbly have we been through a few generations now. Either way they passed up a fantastic ferronickel mine. They do retain a (very small) smelter royalty I believe.

Just a parting thought then have a great weekend everybody. I'll try and stay quiet now too until something happens here.

For Araguaia, assuming finance complete, I don't think nickel price matters too much till production. Higher nickel price in interim may result in a slightly higher SP but for anyone holding for big gains post production that doesn't matter. Nickel price in 2023 and beyond matters.

However, and this is the rub. I would like the nickel bull run to get going from 2021. I do believe that still, many nickel speculators/investors/financiers/majors have been lazy and aren't onboard yet. I would like the run to start to put pressure on one or more of these entities to make us an offer on Vermelho. I don't believe Horizonte will develop it ourselves and I don't necessarily think we will go out to solicit interest or actively market it, there doesn't seem to be too much point, so I would like there to be pressure on the market from a gradually increasing nickel price and gradually decreasing inventory to source new mines. Not too soon, but I would like something to happen to Vermelho and I think the nickel price will help here.

Happy to hear alternative views though. And with that, have a good w/e everyone!

Hope Elon's advances allow for a 100 Nickel: 1 Copper : 0.6 Graphite battery. Then his battery will mirror my portfolio (by value) perfectly.
You could say I'm 'overweight' in nickel to be fair but it seems to be flavour of the month so maybe picked wisely...