Member Info for wasarunner

Hi Nagyielad I can't remember are you on interactive investor too?
Here is how:
https://www.ii.co.uk/investing-with-ii/shareholder-voting-information

I haven't been involved in a takeover vote but assume if anybody gets the vote (PIs) this is how it will land. The only vote I've done through interactive investor was the opt in to the ODX rights issue (for which I didn't need this setting on it just became possible through the platform).

no me neither! Hence all 5 of our accounts are now set to enable voting! We need to muster consensus among the 15% or so holdings we have here not to allow a broadly unfavourable outcome...

that's why I suddenly twigged - what if Glencore are the intermediary (they do the processing and trading) and Teck mined it. Not really what we want we want a nice bidding war really.

Apologies if this is widely known but I've just realised with interactive investor I have to opt into voting (it is opted out by default). I expect this setting might determine in the case of a T/O bid whether or not I get to vote if this is put to to shareholders. I was unaware if it was definitely possible in a nominee account and it appears possible - but disabled by default.

For when we want to block Teck's offer until they raise it. GLA

pickedpeck what you say is really interesting. If Teck aren't ready to make a bid they really want equity to be issued at high price (suits us PIs) or low volume (also suits us PIs) if they can't take all the equity themselves without launching an offer. This is so any other II buying in is getting less % and is easier to buy out later. If say Orion are on the sidelines and want a big slice, the BOD have to manage this situation on behalf of all shareholders in theory (not just Teck/Orion) to get the best outcome. So there is protection I would argue here from much dilution and the price should be much higher share price for the equity portion than current price - Teck want it so.

If Teck do want to make an offer at this point then the iron is hot, we only probably have Glencore as protection but Glencore and Teck are competitors I believe (are there any projects at the moment where they share the spoils?) and it gets interesting. If Teck/Glencore did a deal they could wrap it up between them but I can't see it myself - Teck having no footprint in the nickel space Glencore already big players, would Glencore want another big competitor to enter the fray and whip the 3.5m ton resource out and start producing? I think Glencore will make it hard for Teck to buy it outright - again a good outcome for PIs.

Now we wonder why the management team have taken 2 years to get the 'best' deal for shareholders but there has to be a pretty big powerplay going on at the board level here with the main shareholders. I rather suspect us PIs are just pawns in this game but as you say it will be really interesting where we end up and we should know the next moves pretty soon. Still feels a lot like 'when' not 'if' we get taken out I guess the question is do we even get past financing stage....

We should get a bit more protection if new majors enter the register post financing, but I guess if the equity portion is limited, maybe not much. Hopefully the SP moving through financing will give us protection in any case as the SP will be much higher post financing.

I guess the key question is - will we get an offer through the finance process before the SP has had an opportunity to naturally gravitate upwards a bit more (if such a thing makes sense).

If we get an offer and it is rejected it will do wonders for the shareprice in any case :) If it gets accepted on the other hand, well, time to find the next Horizonte I guess! GLA

>>Anywhere between $1bn & $2bn (50p to £1)
Absolutely possible come 2023-2025 IMO. Main problem most people will have I suspect is waiting it out that long :) Probably me included if we see 30p sooner!

It would be hard to buy 22p if you sold 3p though! Just like it would be hard to buy back into Horizonte 25p if you sold at 8.5p now. There comes a point where a sells a sell and it's best not to look too far back.

I'm looking at the stock I took the biggest loss of my trading career on today - BKY. I'd be in profit today! Crazy stuff crazy markets.

Still think buy with conviction, hold for gold, run the winner (and Horizonte is a winner), cut your losers. You might lose the odd winner but as long as you pick the odd one and it bags and bags and bags it is all good. Horizonte had open goal written all over it since the Orion buy-in. GLA

Nope - it wouldn't get sold for that price. $300m has already been spent and 10-20 years (Horizonte + Vale).
Buyout price will be a lot higher I think. Nobody does 10-20 years work to double their money unless distressed and with the boom coming we're not distressed - far from it.

Not because it matters to me long term, but just I want to be able to read the tealeaves correctly. It had retest written all over it IMO. I want to pretend to understand trading even if I don't.

If institutions have started buying (here), it begs the question who's selling. It has to be PI's. There are few big insitutions left in and don't believe they will be selling on the cusp of finance deal complete.

That means if PIs are selling the transfer of (future) wealth from private individuals to institutions has started here. The institutions know this is at the beginning of the journey - almost totally de-risked, but still cheap as chips. Probably the sweet spot for institutional buying.

2.2 million eua from 0.5 pence
Woodster, if only you'd read sasa's post before you sold them. GLA

I suppose the EUA suspend/relist was atypical and then it is hard to extrapolate the price action. It went up very quickly from re-list, really big jumps. I would only really expect price action like here if we have some kind of interested buyer (of Horizonte?) +50% on the day etc.

PopeUrbanII - EUA followed a similar pattern here from about 3.5p (where it stagnated buying/selling) rerate up to high 7p. Similar to what happened here to the current 8.5p. It did 0.5-1p a day on a good day.

Thing about EUA is at 3.5p it had already '10 bagged' for some LTH so naturally there was some churn. Here I think at 3.5p lucky people might have doubled their money, most were at breakeven.

The interesting thing about EUA is we had very overt 'institutional' or 'wealthy individual' buying as we were seeing £100k trades+ landing. A few of these have had to declare recently because of the 1% rule when a formal takeover is underway.

It's this kind of 'big money' I'm not seeing here yet but maybe it will come. There are more subtle ways they can do it I guess just to soak up sellling gently gently and not spike the price.

Interesting stuff anyway. Someone has been buying this all the way up from 4p that's for sure or we wouldn't be here.

My thinking presently is a lot more to come here (buying pressure). If institutions have started, it has only really just got going. Further news and I'm hoping we start seeing £100k trades here. GLA

>>Tesla have announced a further raise of $5B.
Dunno that's only £2.40 a share including options. Surely we're worth more than that he should have raised $10bn to be on the safe side to purchase his nickel district....

October 1st: 11p
End of the year: 15p
End of 2021: 20p
End of 2025: (sold before this date for 50-70p+. very surprised if still independent)

based on: a. my previous estimates are proving conservative and b. nickel is going to do better than I expected

you can just feel it is going to get tested again today. Second time lucky?

Interesting what you said DJ about the price action I don't know the trading patterns but what you say make sense. If it is an ii accumulating nice and steady (trying not to spike the price) it'll be interesting when they have to declare.

One thing now which is also intersting is the SP is a lot higher. You can spend a lot more £ for a declarable interest. Much more expensive business accumulating 3%+ of Horizonte at todays SP than back in the day earlier this year. ~£11.25m to buy back JPM stake. So there could be ii's buying for longer before we hear anything. GLA

sasa thanks, really agree with the philosophy. I assumed I don't make too much money trading because I'm no good at it but the conventional wisdom backs this up that it is hard to do. Didn't Buffett achieve what you are suggesting by buying Coca Cola shares 30 years ago? He's done alright.

I came here in 2018 having started research in 2017 because I saw nickel as a big thing for the future so I wanted to find a company that ticked those boxes which was still not so far along the development curve to be fully valued. My goals were always at production and beyond (investment for income - dividend/compound) because I believed that in the eventual nickel deficit such a company would be hugely cash generative. Buying in pre-boom valuations would mean of course you get a hell of a return down the line.

Since read a lot about markets, commodities, lifetime of miners and it became obvious that there is a significant chance we don't make it that far but that we get bought out at whatever point would be considered premium valuation at the point. For patient investors they want the offer to come down the line because we should command better premium. My hope presently is around 2023 if the offer comes by which time I think we would be valued at or above the price I first invested with target in mind.

Either which way I had conviction here for the long game and put 99% of my eggs in the basket. Will it work out? Time (as you very rightly point out) will tell. But I certainly can't sell now and not know what I missed in 5 years time So a very modest slice for me, maybe 10-15% of portfolio at 15p+ valuation then wait for come what may, be that 30p/50p/£1 all possibilities in the second half of the decade if we don't get taken out earlier. GLA

this is the best share of a nickel district that I own!

Some on twitter saying ii buyers, that would tally with the fact that ii's generally don't care too much at what precise price they buy as long as the timeframe they want to make money they make money so they'll buy de-risked 9p as opposed to what they perceive higher risk 4p. I always hoped ii's would provide that crucial momentum when first wave of PIs exit at around finance.

Not convinced it's ii's buying now though but I don't know. I don't have L2 and other tools where if you watched it you might get a good feel for who is buying and in what tranches.

Agreed it is still a bargain, always was and remains so at current price.

I can easily now see a scenario where the SP reaches a level from which a discounted place for modest % can be done to close the finance I don't think it will need to be done at premium. I really didn't see it that way a month ago. That's the market for you.

Flavour no idea on daily trading I am afraid. My view was always - for the size of mcap we have here, mostly people don't trade it they're here for the big ticket at the end. So liquidity is low(ish) and when the II seller disappears it can move quickly - we've seen 0.5p moves in a day that is nothing new.

I've also no real idea why we were 4p a month ago and 8p today and fundamentally situation was all 'known' to the company but that's the fun thing about the market for you. One thing for sure though I'm convinced - next news isn't priced in yet. Good luck.