Member Info for wasarunner

spaceman agree and hence the title of my original post. I am sensing opportunity because the 'panic' or whatever you call it is blind.

PhoenxRising the crash from high to low as you put it - yes it looks scary. But if you'd invested, say, £1k/mth for the last 12 months you're up. If you invested £1k a month 6 months you're up. Probably only if you started investing £1k/mth at £2.50 are you down. That people go all in at the top - well - it is unfortunate but I still don't think £3.10 is the top (not if you believe in BTC), so again, you're ok.

Lots of lessons here. Don't go all in. Don't go all in at one price. Lists go on. But it is a valid investment and I see opportunity when there is panic. That's all. I'll review but much lower than 1.40 I will put my £50k in . At £1.40 I will put £50k in but only if other things play out as I do have other needs for 95% of the pf. GLA

well done and you've done well - but not everyone can get in early. There is still good money to be made as markets / companies establish. I am chatting to other investors on my other stocks who are coming in later than me and still lots of upside.

I get the patience thing. Nearly bought more at 160 area then said I'd leave it in case we'd go lower. We did. But over years - it's all noise. All my buys on my other share (just about) are in profit now. Investing is the long game - whether it is crypto or something else!

>>argo at 140p is value, argo at 250p is value. The latter as entry point is better (obviously).
Sorry the former is better value. Obviously :)

barnetpeter - depends on your timeframe. I bought one stock at 4.4p (first), it fell over years to 1.6p. I added. It is now 8.2p. I am invested for 50p-£1 (the latter is perhaps optimistic, but possible with a favourable wind). What is 'the right value' for a stock. Very much depends on your timeframe.

It still remains simple for me. If you believe in BTC argo at 140p is value, argo at 250p is value. The latter as entry point is better (obviously).

The bigger problem is many people invest over days or weeks to try and get rich. That doesn't necessarily work with a volatile stock/sector. But that doesn't make it not a good investment and that is where opportunity comes in.

I've said in my other post - I don't know. But I'm happy to take a bet (in my case £100k / just below 5%).

Adamskiii - fear and greed, it is what the market is. That is actually all it is. The unknown here is that it is (still) a relatively new thing - I know a lot on here have perhaps been in crypto a long time but the majority of people (general population) haven't. New industry. People invested here are the pioneers. With being a pioneer comes risk. Ask the guys who hiked to the Yukon in the 19th century. I don't know the answer - but it is definitely fun being part of the journey!

For me the turning point came when institutions started taking a notice, say, last 6 months. They can't ignore it because they can't afford to miss it. And they know that.

The more I read posts on here the more I am sensing there could be huge opportunity here. As I see it:

The bull case
===========

Bitcoin is on its trajectory (the flow model). There will be fluctuations ups and downs, it may not be insulated from market corrections, it may not (yet) be ready to fully replace gold, but it is on a par. It will store value, it will continue to appreciate, finite supply, and the big money understands this and very much wants a slice of the action.

The bear case
============

New industry, central banks are scared, energy intensive etc. Govts don't really like losing control. Can't have the common man thinking (outside) the system they organised for them. Intervention.

What's clear to me is huge numbers of people are invested without a basic understanding of investment (in general) or what to base a companies valuation on. If we have the bull case here, over time, and Argo is say top 5 or top 10 miner. Bingo. You wish you bought today. If we have the bear case, well, that's more complicated. Then you have to manage your risk - invest what you can afford to etc.

The volatility is caused, in part, by the volatility of the underlying commodity but it seems to me (and I don't know - I'm not watching every trade - it could be big dumping) there is herd panic. I understand people are upset if you are down a lot but then:
- you bought higher, and you had the historical graph to look at, so if you went all in at 250p, you did understand that this share was 60p 3 months ago, and took the risk
- or, you bought higher, but it doesn't matter, you are happy it is more likely the bull case, and you are happy to ride it out and you accepted potential for downside. Volatility is part of the game with BTC

I actually don't know the path BTC will take (and probably neither does anybody else) but it has piqued my interest and I'm in close to £100k now after todays topup (I only hold ARB, no other crypto stocks). I like ARB. If you believe in BTC, believe in ARB. I will most likely put another £50k in if we stay at these levels and other things play out. If we rise, I don't mind not investing more.

To me it is pretty binary (notwithstanding what argo are looking at diversifying into - which we don't know at the moment). If you believe in BTC these days are noise (and opportunity). If you don't, then you definitely invested in the wrong stock.

All of the above is opinion (only). Argo is <5% of my portfolio still but I am interested in more. GLA

Nope. The value/mcap/sp of the company is never equivalent to the balance sheet :) Not for any company I'm invested in and that includes ARB. If it were you might as well invest your cash in cash. You invest for future upside :)

What's interesting is they aren't moving the price (much). 7.2p -> 8p is not such a great jump with the amount that has been bought. Clearly don't want it high. Wonder what they do when people stop selling? There can only be so many 1m chunks you can take - still not huge liquidity here. And surely the selling will dry up as we approach the end of H1 - the stated (and restated) timeframe for financing.

About 45 trading days to go till they're declarable (if they started at 0).

But they'll run out of time - in 45 trading days I expect news, personally, which hopefully makes it a whole lot more expensive for them to add 1m a day.

Someone accumulating. My money on JD or Bwana they're the most bullish. I'm bullish but strapped for cash - well quantities of cash needed for 1m shares a pop in any case.

Calm before the storm. Next week is the last trading week in April. I can only imagine the amount of financing progress behind closed doors. Just really hope Brazil covid doesn't derail us at the last hurdle - where's bluebudgie update when you need it most...

I think they did get involved - Feb RNS:

"Related party transaction

Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management ("Canaccord") (which holds shares representing approximately 10.0% of the Company's share capital as at the date hereof) is a related party of the Company and will be participating in the Placing by subscribing for 23,930,000 Placing Shares."

I think the extra shares may have brought them back above 10% then perhaps the subsequent dilution (is the latest dilution due to the Canadian shares getting listed?) has perhaps pushed them back under?

Agree would be good to see updated holders list with the full share capital pre financing with the Canadian shares incorporated into the totals.

It will probably change again (substantially) with the financing equity of course.

Cannacord reduced a tad. Damn. Was hoping something juicier :)

The way I've looked at it I've made 2.5x from investment. My current stake is worth £1.5m. I've already taken half my original investment off the table and invested in others - £400k. I'm up overall on paper around £1.2m having invested £750k.

I think 2 more 2.5x are possible - once when Araguaia enters production, once when Vermelho enters production or Araguaia 2 gets built. That gets to 50p (ignoring rounding) from 7.5 x 2.5 x 2.5. It may take 5-6 years. But it's £10m. That has to be worth a shot - only to tell my grandkids it happened that way :)

If we get sold earlier and for less I won't complain. I don't have much need for money above around £2m once I have a roof over my head which isn't plastic, again. GLA

Yes I wanted to derisk 20% to be 80% Horizonte but I wanted to do it post financing at 15p+. For my purposes I had to move earlier so I derisked 20% at 7.5-9p. Just due to the time constraints of what I need the other 20% for. I'm happy to sit here 80% Horizonte because post financing there is very little risk I won't see a return. I don't know how others see it e.g. Craig whether he has other investments or is happy at 100% HZM. I know Bwana has other investments. All in one share is probably not the best - I'm comfortable with 80% here. Worth the risk for the upside but that's just my opinion could be wrong. GLA

Thanks guys - with Horizonte there might be buying opportunity in the years to come. My feeling is it depends a lot on Vermelho. If the company make steady progress with Vermelho but don't beat their chests about it too much the rerate for Araguaia might be quite gradual. The reason for this is - I've read that a typical valuation for a financed up miner which isn't mining might look like 30-50% of NPV. Now nickel isn't completely flying (yet). 3bn worst case shares x 50% NPV at around current nickel prices we might actually not be far north of 10p post financing.

We could be a lot higher I don't know. It depends of course what price premium the market might apply to the size of Araguaia or phase 2 Araguaia. But I think another big question is Vermelho as I've put in other posts. In previous conversations with Simon Retter he told me the market should value Vermelho differently once financing is achieved on Araguaia. It proves that the company is able to raise finance for a mine and is already financed on one mine hence the risk that the second mine can't be financed presumably has diminished somewhat.

I only say this for the reason that - it is very possible that if Horizonte follows a more linear share price trajectory from Araguaia financing complete to Vermelho built and producing (the time between the two events could be significant number of years) it might be very investable in the interim. So for anyone who got lucky (read: invested smartly!) in faster moving stocks there might well be the opportunity to return and top up even if it is in say 10-20p range. With the eventual 50-70p target etc.

But if the people posting on here are right and financing is the big rerate event then it might not be possible, I don't know. I can't take that chance. I also can't take a chance the offer lands and I'm not invested.

But I'm here till 2025 in either case because there is a HUGE nickel deficit coming in the second half of this decade no matter what. Add to that dollar devaluation and who knows what the price of nickel will be. $30k? Higher? It'll be pure dividend here. GLA

"If this means that over time there is a gradual transfer of shares from the less savvy to the more savvy, I think it is a good thing."

I've read about this. Generally it appears that big money is made over long periods of time. PIs are (for valid reasons as well as psychological reasons) less patient than IIs. Therefore in general there tends to be a transfer of wealth from PIs to IIs.

The way I see that playing out specifically with Horizonte is - way too many people will sell way too many of their shares (PIs) before full value. There are very valid reasons for this - need a car, need to retire, need whatever then there is the second reason they guess the top. II's will know the top is 2027 or 2029 or whenever and will buy their shares off them. These IIs will go on to make the real gravy.

I'm determined to to be like an II with Horizonte. 'Think like a whale' to coin a phrase from the crypto world. GLA

people posting dead cat bounce either don't understand what it is or are simply spreading fear. dead cat bounce means the cat is really dead (obviously).

This is a profitable company with no debt ffs so how can it be dead. something like 87% profitability in some months. I wish my company could do that, we're lucky if we can do 20%. It's value can go up and down (and evidently the market can pick it up and play with it) but one thing it isn't is dead. Unlike some big zombie companies out there racked with debt barely eeking a profit. All IMHO.

Tiger agree - I think a lot on here (and this is natural instinct) believe the shareprice should be x because the fundamentals are y. The problem is, that's not how markets work (at all). Companies are almost never fairly valued. They can be undervalued, overvalued, but very rarely will they be fairly valued. The market is the market it is emotional/irrational but that creates opportunity.

I've been doing this with big numbers for 3-4 years (been doing it with much smaller numbers for going on 25 years). Until people understand that the shareprice is always disconnected from fundamentals you can't make progress. I buy companies where I believe the fundamentals are better than the price suggests. Then you have to wait for the majority of the market/herd/whatever you want to call it to agree with you. When more agree with you than not then you are in a winning position.

Finally I think you have to be able to hold long. If you HAVE to sell next week/next month it's a sure way to ruin. As is capitulating at the bottom. As I said I've held stocks at 33% of the bought value and made really good money. But you have to believe in the company. If you don't believe in ARB and have bought you are either: a. a trader. Fair play. Tradres trade or b. Daft. If it's b. then probably shouldn't be investing or invest in something more comfortable with. ALl IMHO

I could afford one (probably several in fact) but I prefer to invest the cash. In my experience if you do that right you can end with more than lambo, whatever the next level is (I'm not into cars so don't know).

Nope. Time to buy. P/E today is irrelevant if you think BTC is going to rise - future earnings is what you're buying. But as to whether this is the floor, who knows. But this is definitely not the point to sell. Hold or buy but don't sell. All IMHO.