Member Info for wasarunner

>>some of which we no doubt know about
sorry some of which we no doubt don't know about. I do think they have plans perhaps to diversify from btc during the next down cycle. Any well run business would. GLA

It's all about fundamentals and whether you believe in btc (and the other projects ARB are involved with presently, and in the future - some of which we no doubt know about).

A drop of 50% high to low can be scary for some investors. I've seen it a lot of times before. I've been invested in stocks where a 66% drop from high to low (down to 33% of value). Usually it represents a buying opportunity.

I have added here and if it goes (much) lower I will double my holding. One of the slightly painful things I've learnt investing is don't be fully invested (or if you are, don't be fully invested in one thing). It's impossible to take advantage of opportunities.

I'm sold on Argo's fundamentals always provided over the long term BTC goes up. Short term what happens to argo shareprice or btc price is irrelevant. That is of course an investment position not a trade.

I really like Blonity I have to say - guy knows his onions. Drops don't phase him and in my investing career drops only phased me at the point where I didn't have a grip on fundamentals or was overpositioned. Personally, I can't sink 100% into crypto I don't understand it well enough. But for the % I can sink in I am very comfortable with argo at this price and do believe there is good money to be made here - whether on a 2 month view, 12 month view, 5 year view. But I can afford to hold long. Always invest what you don't need next week is the only advice I can give.

I don't have a precise price target for where I would double my holding. But I tend to know a bargain when I see it. I'm also not a good trader so never buy the bottom sadly. GLA

please don't follow my buy / sell signals if you're a trader ;). Alternatively do the opposite of what I do and you'll do well....

I listened to the podcast it sounds bullish to me. Possibly a short delay but they know exactly what they are doing. Eventual news could be very good indeed. Shame the Nomad forced the RNS button. You're damned if you do damned if you don't we've seen it on Horizonte - get radio silence past a promised dates, investors complain, RNS that you aren't ready on the promised date and investors complain. It's a complex business building a mine even if in our case its the surface mining type not the deep drilling. To do it efficiently and commercially viably etc.

Have to say I have also mulled while invested in the other stocks 'what if I sold this what might it be worth in HZM'. But it isn't a sounds strategy because it ignores what happens with the Horizonte shareprice.

Now I'm not saying this will happen, but others are saying this - Vermelho news preceeds the Araguaia financing news. It might not be concrete news on a finance deal for Vermelho but it could be as high level as a partner announcement what then? Horizonte got a lot more expensive in GRL shares.

Because I don't think I can time news like that I have to be comfortable that the amount of shares I own in each stock can do its thing. It helps having a big portfolio of course having pots you can throw at each company. I know some people juggle the portfolio around so that they can benefit from 2x followed by 2x to make 4x and so forth because it is the only way to achieve a great pf size. I get that.

I think Vermelho is the dark horse/golden goose here because we've had more than a hint that something will happen. We don't know when - before or after or at the same time as Araguaia financing news. If it was just Araguaia financing news I would have a decent stab I reckon at shareprice following financing. But Vermelho can blow that out of the water because (for instance) if a partner is announced, and its a major, we will immediately rate the project like a major would rate it and not an explorer-come-producer with no cash. I think significant Vermelho news can double the SP at a pinch. And that's as good a reason as any to keep the full holding you want fully here - as well as of course the outside chance of the bid landing when you least expect it. GLA

We need DJ back. Copper isn't the future DJ. Future's nickel.
Anyway the price is where I thought it would be pre financing - 8-9p. If I'm right it won't go below 8 and above 9. Just guessing really tho.

Both! I didn't expect to buy them but had a mishap with another share and had to reposition. As a bonus I've ended up with more Horizonte and ACP (and less Pensana which was my only particularly well performing share of the moment!).

Strange the way things work.
Of course having bought it now starts dropping. Told you I wasn't a trader! Where's your million share buyer when you need them!

But yes after earlier in the week I thought it was difficult I got no quote earlier in the week. Here three identical £20k buys one after the other went through fine.

Say we get news mid June (and possibly some preamble earlier). I make it 2 months! Worth being positioned IMO.

I bought just under £25k two trades at 12.20ish. A 1pm RNS and I could have pretended I know some stuff. Alas it was not to be. But neither did I buy it with a 40 minute time horizon. GLA

I unexpectedly bought 3x£20k and it was unexpectedly easy! Earlier week buying £13k was hard I had to split the transaction. Maybe I was competing with the 1m share buyer at that time. Mainly repositioning my money where it needs to sit long term but I have net added to my holding over this week. Very much convinced myself of the investment case here (on the long view) and will be very happy if those with the shorter time horizons are right and we see good numbers post financing and into next year.

I've had to temporarily cover another position (that'll teach me to meddle in crypto stocks :) ) and unfortunately my pensana holding for the time being had to be the casualty. I hope to be back! I mention this because it was really easy to sell around £80k short shrift. Means someone wants them. Around 169p. Good liquidity (which hasn't always been the case though admittedly I haven't sold much before, mainly bought).

BTC all time high, Argo off some 40% off all time high. With lots of positive development since the high. Just saying. I feel gain to come more likely than pain to come (but some pain at times is inevitable and v. much part of investing).

TDT agree 100% - it is much more interesting that Vermelho gets developed than where the SP reaches this year. If Vermelho starts getting developed, it will add HUGE mcap at the point where it is financed/built/producing so that is the value we need to unlock. I am more excited about Vermelho getting developed for the long game than any immediate impact on the sp. However, it is also bound to attract institutional interest buyers so as soon as it is on track to being developed we should see new money buying Horizonte, which is not a bad outcome for existing shareholders....particularly those eyeing their 'slices' or 'early exits'.

I'm really bad at this and don't do t/a charts but have a feeling the 10p area would be real support as the price was oscillating between 10-11p during the time I was buying. It wouldn't surprise me if we touch that before further news. As I say I'm bad at this -normally I top up too soon after such an RNS so going to be patient and see where we go. I mainly see the RNS as a delay nothing more. Typically that presents further buying opp if the fundamentals remain sound.

perhaps a little shake early doors to collect from the weak hands then up we go I reckon. Disconnect between where BTC is right now/where it is heading and Argo shareprice.

You only have to read the posts on here to smell the fear it is borderline amusing. Opportunity to accumulate. Company should be holding around a third of its current mcap on its balance sheet in btc by end of this year ffs (compare that to a company like vodafone which holds around its mcap in debt). And if you believe btc is going higher after this year, just keep buying. It's pretty simple really. Won't be in a straight line of course, never is.

Yes - if Horizonte are going to develop it at least in the early stages from own cash (as the appointment of the engineering chappie suggests) then they need cash - I think by financing the coffers will be relatively empty - if the latest $25m is largely a placeholder for the Araguaia long lead items and initial ramp up. So I'm looking for clues in the financing that cash is raised for Vermelho and if not - clues to who is going to do what with Vermelho in Q3/Q4. If Horizonte raise (some) finance for it in the main deal, which is not unlikely IMO, then game on.

I don't see 'no progress' as a likely outcome in 2021 on Vermelho simply because the clock is ticking and it is too valuable asset to have sitting around. Even if the only progress is to raise finance to progress the next stage of DFS development, my expectation is that will happen this year. And make no mistake, Vermelho is the golden goose here :) GLA

easy for the shareprice to retrace a bit on that kind of RNS which if you believe in the prospects and the eventual outcome may present a buying opportunity. I see it as a delay RNS with a potential upside you could read into it that there is greater return than anticipated hence the optimisation but the latter is conjecture - more likely to be fine tuning to get viable economic output. I am probably positioned how I want here but would consider adding on any significant shareprice weakness. Around 3% of my PF and would consider topping up (at the right price of course!)

final thing I would keep a beady eye on in Q3 is what is happening with Vermelho after Araguaia financing is announced. If Horizonte are making concrete noises, or getting a shift on developing this project, then you know you will see value from the second (larger, more lucrative!) project in a timescale you care about. I think for whatever reason Vermelho development is tied into the financing deal for Araguaia (or shortly after it) - perhaps it needs cash and the company don't want to jeapordise the big deal doing a raise separately. But if it looks like we're developing Vermelho, by Q3, it's game on for Horizonte and that is bound to attract even more institutional interest than Araguaia. So much potential and the financing could (and should) hold the key.

keep an eye on the nickel narrative (which will get stronger) and the other eye on the fact there aren't many like us with 4m tonnes of it 'ready to mine' around. That goes one way, eventually, once we have unlocked the financing. All imho.

SJ absolutely fair. All I would say is - analyse the deal with a cool head and look at the timescales over which it will deliver. My gut feel is more dilution at lower than what we'd like. But I am increasingly of the opinion of Craig, and Bwana, and others, that that doesn't matter - but potentially only for people who are happy to wait till production. Even - absolute worst case in my book - 3bn shares. This has the potential to be a £1.5-2bn company which would value us at 50-70p even at that worst case end. Yes it will take years and perhaps you will find a better investment for making 7p into 50p or 70p. But don't necessarily be put off by the initial deal. Really reflect on it.

The raise this spring caught me off guard as it wasn't quite what the company had mooted and it wobbled my confidence a bit, especially as I had continued loading right up until the announcement. I go into the main financing deal with a completely different mindset, eye very much on the long game, having taken enough off the table that I don't need the 20m shares. I don't really see an eventual exit less than 50p but of course, even 25p would more than do.

But if you do see better opportunities in Q3 fair play to you and they do exist, clearly, some stocks gain more multiples or companies get sold and others already pay dividend, perhaps that's years and years away for Horizonte. Don't discount a sale of Horizonte also - I still think at least 50/50 we get sold at around first production if not earlier.

I think some of the large trades we see may be arranged trades. A lot of the share capital is held through some kind of bond structure from the original investors prior to float I think. There is a nice pie here:

https://www.zaimcreditsystemsplc.com/shareholder_structure

I think from time to time some of these shares linked to the bond may swap owners. The 'free float' of the remainder may actually be relatively small. I think Zaim SA is the counterparty for the bond but my knowledge of the structure is very limited. These are listed as being under the control of the CEO Siro Ciccone.

I would like to invest more (currently in for 1m shares) but do see it as a long term investment and need other things to platy out shorter term to make a further purchase. I understand the model, and the model is sound!