Member Info for wasarunner

I got you DJ. TBH I think each of gold (here) copper, nickel and others will have their day. There's no way you can do printing/QE on this scale and get away with it without inflation. My main bugbear is inflation is hidden from the public. My daughter is wondering why driving lessons just went up 20% (in one year) as she is considerting starting. I'm trying to get her head round inflation (what the govts want people to hear) and inflation (what it really is). You can always design your inflation basket so it looks good. Now put your iphone (insert latest version here) in the basket and you have a different number.

Trying to pick your next up and coming companies in each commodity / precious metal is a very sound place to be invested IMO. GRL is hopefully one of these. Did somebody mention gold pour imminently :) Exciting stuff.

I think there are plenty (DJ one of them) who are happy with a 2x or 3x from low to current price and happy to pursue gains elsewhere (with at least part of their portfolio). If you are dispassionate about it it is easy you don't have to buy back. You can move to the next stock which you think will double. I'm not convinced all sellers want, or will come back, or if they do, they will want to profit from the next 50% rerate before selling again.

I think we had a debate back in the day about which strategies produce better overall returns. Now I have accounted for my ISA transactions (in my system I book the sell as a profit and re-enter the buy at the buy price) I am selling £7k bought stock and buying around £20k with it. This is on a year+ timeframe since some of these buys were first logged. There is simply no way, with my skills and ability to read the market, that I could outperform trebling my money in a year by moving it around - yes - if you knew what AVCT and ARB and other shares were going to do but that's hindsight trading. Granted, Horizonte may sit flat for a year, but I know with Horizonte there is another trebling around the corner at some point - it could be 2021, 2022, or 2023, but we WILL be worth 25p at some point (and hopefully then some). So it is pretty simple in my mind - why sell? I don't think I can outperform my buy and hold strategy with my skills, but accept others may do better and good luck to them!

An article caught my eye which again confirms (to me) the need to be invested in non cash assets. Biden under pressure to write off student loans. Apparently the US has $1.4tn in student loans. That is money somebody invented, leant to students who studied as debt, which the state may now decide to make the debt disappear. There is surely only so many times you can pull this kind of trillion dollar stunt before the the proverbial happens involving fans and the brown stuff and currencies become treated with some of the contempt they deserve. The positive for me is - lets get that money for Horizonte borrowed (in $) as soon as possible. Before$ worth a lot less than it might be worth today and we are paying it back from sales of nickel which are priced a lot higher in $ than it is today. GLA

dj how do you know you're catching me up. You don't know what I'm invested in :) But you're probably right a lot of my positions are fairly flat. But ready for a good re-rate! Q2 is actually massive, I'm expecting news on all 4 of my main holdings, GRL included. Best case scenario is my net worth is double at the end of June what it is now. Now that would be very pleasant!

GRL specifically obviously we await company news but one of the reasons I like the idea of gold caught my eye today. Biden apparently under pressure to write off (some) student loans. Apparently the total US student loans owing is $1.4tn. Now that is money somebody printed, gave to students to study, who incurred the debt, and now the debt may vanish into thin air. Makes you realise why investing in something (which isn't fiat currency) is essential to preserve wealth. I make no comment on whether students should or shouldn't incur debt I have my views. But I'm very clear on what govs should or shouldn't print and IMHO (only) it is faaaaaar too easy to print the stuff and dish it out. One day, the fat lass sings. GLA

Much more likely didn't do any of the aforementioned trades and is simply spreading fear that the share could drop to 160p. Which of course, it could. It could also go to £3 and beyond. You takes you chances ladies and gentlemen....

I guess what I'm saying is, the 20% downside is the compensation for the potential 100% upside in short shrift. If there was a sector which guaranteed the 100% upside without the possibility of the 20% downside, that's the one I'd like to hear about! And yes I know the true (potential) downside is bigger but that comes back to investing what you're comfortable with. Anyone 100% into crypto or crypto stocks has to be 100% certain of the direction of travel, obviously.

I don't understand traders/investors in Argo (or in fact anything related to crypto) who don't like volatility. Volatility is particular and almost sector specific. You can trade cocoa futures if you don't want volatility. That of course means you either invest what you can not sweat when it goes down, or you have the longer goal in mind and don't mind being underwater because you believe in the overall direction of travel. But I don't understand fear of the volatility itself. Nobody, not ARB's CEO, or almost anybody who's anybody in crypto has pretended it is anything other than volatile?

If somebody has discovered the thing that only ever goes up in a straight line please let me know, I'd like to invest in it! In the meantime I agree with the analysis that 200p for argo is good value, always assuming the direction of future BTC travel is overall up, and the company maintains a leading role in mining - and it seems to be doing pretty well on the latter and is strategically placed. GLA

Possibly, I've noticed there is also a bit of profit seeking elsewhere as certain other stocks on AIM which shall remain nameless get their moment in the sunlight - ever was it thus. Just as the merry go round goes round ACP's time will come! If I had more funds I'd buy more here but I (try to) refuse the merry go round and try and stay put! GLA

my last b&i has just gone through. I now command the share price to do its thing (rise, obviously). Which probably means it will fall....

I think the opposite actually - the higher price will make it easier to buy (as necessarily it will draw sellers). However, obviously, buyers will be buying a lot higher! So if you want them at this price probably best buy what you can. But agree this is very tightly held when I've bought it has been difficult to get in any quantity.

I think generally the higher price will improve liquidity but of course during the rerate it will be hard to buy, without paying over ask. GLA

Moog - that's not strictly true. A miner is a leveraged play on the underlying commodity. Apart from anything else Argo is not just mining, but also storing BTC. IMHO it will outperform BTC to the upside, but then potentially also to the downside. The investment case here is BTC up, Argo up (there is more to it of course but essentially the investment case is very much - invest if you think BTC is going up).

Things like Nasdaq listing are a multiplier hence further leveraged. Nasdaq listing and Argo will be valued at a higher relative multiple of the BTC value.

It is (still) a relatively illiquid share. 1m shares is peanuts. Declarable interest is around 55m+ shares I think. So the fact we have to move so much to fill a 1m order (or two) tells me what I need to know - institutional buying here will move us into a different league. Too many shares here tightly held I think. When buying pressure comes it will go one way. Will the buying pressure come at financing, or earlier, I suppose remains the question. GLA

Wonder where it stops. My hunch was 8p-9p area might be reasonable pre financing as I expected the raise to perhaps put a ceiling on. 9p is 20% above 7.5p raise price so not unrealistic VWAP discount. So until it gets above 9p I'm not surprised - much above that or retesting 10p in the next month or two I will be (pleasantly) surprised. However, I suppose, if people all expect financing as a given, and expect financing to unlock the price could it go higher? We will see. As I've always said I don't get markets hence I don't try to trade. If people are buying at 8.4p why weren't the same people buying at 7.2p last week etc. We've had no news since then.

Been out all day haven't read all the posts but just caught the tail end of DJs posts. I have to say I have sympathy for both views - that Horizonte is a great investment, but that other investments might make money quicker. I think Horizonte is the oil ship, laden with valuable cargo, but that will take a few years to deliver to the destination. There are other speedboats out there. There aren't many sitting on $80bn+ resource however, and not 1 but 2 of them. So both views are valid. The stocks I have invested in since I divested some Horizonte have in general performed slightly better. But on a 2-4+ year timeframe Horizonte has the potential to blow them all away. There is the argument that short term gains elsewhere can be reinvested here but that kind of trading has as much chance of working against you as for you. We've risen nearly 15% in the past days on no news. Another reason I wouldn't trade another share with the expectation of buying Horizonte is - despite the BODs best intentions, the offer can come any day. What looks like a good investment on a 2-4 year timeframe then can deliver and deliver big in 2-4 months. GLA

Been hard to buy I've bought £13k today but been hard work. Top up for me.
4 of 5 ISAs executed sub 8p which is good. They are executing around the bid. Just one to go I'll leave that for ii to complete in their own time.

Does lack of liquidity mean something? I hope so! Good I hope.

Thanks Matl - got a bit lucky (as I pointed out with the sellers) so I bought way lower than I should have had the opportunity to do so - really I should have ended up with half the shares. But I also took the risk when nobody else was taking it. I did invest a lot - in the end around £800k - most of my assets having sold my house - taken some profit since - but I'm holding to 2025+ for £10m+ exit (unless company sells sooner). With Armadale I think we get jam hopefully sooner as Bwana says probably one or two years earlier perhaps. I have less invested here as Horizonte remains my main play.

Basically the way I see it the way to get rich is - identify an opportunity / mismatch of price in the market. But be confident in the directors - that's really important - look at track record. I have spoken to Matt Bull here before I upped my stake. Then buy over a prolonged time when everyone else is buying elsewhere.

I've never bought anything at the original low point - the 1p area here, or the 1p area on Horizonte. But you don't need to. Actually I think the perfect point to buy is on the cusp of the lifecycle transition around the point where it is derisked (has lincence) but before financing. If you buy pre-financing you are taking a chance that financing terms will play out well. I am very confident this will get financed and on really good terms. With Horizonte we got slightly unlucky - Covid came at a bad time and it's a huge project financing got kicked back and we had a bit of extra dilution. You have to take it on the chin - Covid was a bit of a black swan event.

Anyway GLA I'll shut up with off topic stuff but there are parallels with the two companies, one made me a lot of paper wealth, the other here is going to do the same I think.

Bwana - repeating a bit a post a couple of weeks ago but Kabunga constantly selling (if the RNS is accurate over 17 months no less!) his holding has created an artificially low shareprice for stage of progress. This also now acts as a natural drag as PIs and other potentially interested investors look at share price history (we all guilty of this) and not just NPV/IRR and the basis of valuation. To a large extent the mcap of ACP is driven by the market mentality and a large seller like this over a long period of time can significantly affect that.

We saw it on Horizonte - when the large sellers clear (there it was City Financial, JP Morgan, and Richard Griffiths - probably best part of 18 months of constant selling) it achieved a much more realistic (still cheap IMHO) valuation and rerated something like 4x. I'm not saying that will immediately happen here when Kabunga exits stage left, but, in conjunction with news, the move could be significant and 4p/5p even 6p will hopefully be toast and like many are predicting, double figures for us.

To some extent the share price ahead will depend on what kind of newsflow we get after licence lands - because those here for a long time will have a decision to make do they sell down the first rerate event or hold for the real gravy. I know many are here for mine build/production and the eventual rerate to NPV levels but without a doubt there will be profit taking/slicing. Hopefully to be replaced with new investors who see the potential when fully de-risked - possibly at finance complete stage.

Without a doubt a huge opportunity and one that doesn't come along often - £25m mcap for a $500m+ NPV (potentially, depending on eventual pricing of the product). Horizonte was similar when I invested - £40mcap for a $700m + NPV (ignoring Vermelho). I wouldn't have ever believed market can misprice assets and projects like this as much - if I wasn't 7 figures up on Horizonte. Patience is all that's needed here because value will out.
GLA

Bwana surely volatility in an investment stock which is a conviction play translates to 'further buying opportunity' ;)

Ah ok thanks Haffyplan, that's useful to know. So he could be selling more than just the declared shareholding (from the last RNS).

reality is - we don't know.
If warrants get exercsed that surely has to be RNS'd so at least we should know it is only the shareholding that is getting sold down. I hope he sells before next news. That way, we will have simultanous stop of 'institutional' selling with news which could put the squeeze on to buyers and we could move sharply up.

Then again could always be bored PIs selling also. You can't expect people to have the full patience or see where this will be in a few months/years time, necessarily. Though just under 2m shares in one lump is a chunky sell by any measures....hope that one was Kabunga.

We got Kabungad today. Next week is another week. GLA

that's not to say 'dips' aren't worth waiting for. Been reasonably volatile this stock up and down 10% in a day. I don't have the patience to wait for dips so once I'm sold on an investment I tend to enter anyway - over years precise entry tends not to matter so much.

JC if it helps - a couple of us think 300p on business plan publishing here. Maybe that's ambitious but it could also be imminent. I added around 150p and my first entry was 125p so I wouldn't say you are missing the boat at all. Depends on your timescales though - for me - this is a multi year investment (along with others like it) for a 2-4 year minimum hold. Unless we get sold of course.