Member Info for wasarunner

CBax honestly believe this is how you make good money, to invest in things which fundamentally have value, but the herd attention is elsewhere. I've made 7 figures paper gains over 3 years investing in Horizonte doing just that. It didn't become remotely popular as a share (with retail investors) until Elon Musk tweets about needing nickel. If I had the kind of money I put in there (which I can't transfer as it still has huge legs to go there) I would be putting it in here.

Admittedly, this kind of investing tests the patience because you always question whether you're wrong. But my example proves that you can be right. I'm 250% up on Horizonte and journey there hasn't even started yet. This will be similar IMO. Good luck.

Arguably of course full value is 5 years time when we ramp up production Phase 2 but who really believes it won't be bought/sold by then? Odds on I would imagine.

For me - simplistically - it's a 10-12 month mine build but we haven't started that. I see maximum value at production. So the minimum timeframe to realise 'full' value is 12 months if we started today.

But we aren't starting today so I'm interested when finance lands and we do start building. In my experience (admittedly with a much bigger project which has been delayed by covid) picking the start date for a mine build you have to give it some legroom just to stay sane. I been waiting for Horizonte to build something for about 3 years now! Not saying it will take anywhere near that long but for my own sanity - allowing up to 24 months for full value here.

Multiples of course should come much earlier! Full value interests me a great deal though I have time. GLA

SeanT hope so I don't have detailed knowledge but agreed an awful lot could already be lined up over the last 9 months or so! Hopefully the BOD was busy in the background while waiting for the licence....

Have to say I am invested in 5 stocks at the moment, 4 of them miners, and this is the one I'm most excited about on a 12-24 month timeframe. Not that a result here can't come sooner but those are very much the timescales which interest me (at least) for full value. If we stay independent then of course production beyond that becomes interesting but this has all the hallmarks of a build & sell - which is no problem - as long as a good price is realised at sale of course! GLA

The million dollar question is how soon finance completes. Assuming ML is now a formality of course. Agree financing should really see the biggest rerate as the biggest hurdle is then clear (assuming a straightforward mine build which I believe it is). However financing should be pretty straightforward with a project ~100% IRR I would have thought - kind of like taking shots at an open goal. I don't have a feel for when financing is likely to land, my guess is offtakes could land first, but very happy to wait for it. As ever it is the terms that are more important than precise timeframe. In the meantime we may see a breather on SP between ML and finance complete but I would like to think that breather will be (much?) higher than the current level as surely the licence was the factor that was least in our direct control here. GLA

>>I bought 0.5m shares on Friday
Sorry only reason I mention that is I suspect I bought up a lot of float on Friday. It moved later in the day sharply up on relatively light volume. Sometimes it's just luck and didn't want it to look like somebody necessarily knew something they didn't. This is a great investment and I've been adding at all numbers in the 3.7-4.5p range.

I've been equally unlucky on other stocks. Got bored and sold only for the RNS to land the next day! But I was genuniely contemplating a top up - around £40k this morning here but opted to top up another of my holdings Pensana as it has shown a bit of weakness in the days. The £40k of course would be sitting pretty here at the moment.

It's swings and roundabouts but that's investing/trading for you...long term this is a no brainer.

Have to confess I bought 0.5m shares on Friday and I had no idea news would land today (I thought it was close, but no precise info). It seems a bit of a fluke. I got most of my latest shares in the 4.2p area.

I simply bought because I thought 4.2p was too low given the proximity of news. I hoped that Kabunga wouldn't sell the rise down. It appears he must be out IMO.

That said I expect plenty of stale bull sells but that is part and parcel for a largely PI held share like this where progress to this stage has taken a while. But hopefully many will hold for the higher numbers with financing in place. Expect some churn of investors in any case.

One thing I won't be doing is selling any. Very happy with my holding here and where it is going.

>>The board is initiating a process to review its composition and consider suitable candidates for the vacancies made recently.

Don't ignore the significance of this. Any appointments which bring real development & production expertise to the team will be huge. It is clearly a board reshuffle to move from explorer to producer but it is easy to lose in the main news which of course is the EISA landing. If the right people with the right track records join the BOD that can help massively both on the development and finance side. Exciting times.

probably good I bought elsewhere this morning as always good to spread risk and opportunity but nobody likes missing the RNS by half an hour when they had funds to buy!

No don't sell! What's slightly annoying is I was contemplating buying more this morning and didn't. Never mind existing holding will have to suffice :) Surely clear and hold 5p for good? Esp if kabunga is out already?

IN the last few years 50-60kt/a would have put you in or around 5-10 of top nickel producers in the world, some years, top 5.
I guess as demand grows there will be more production from the big boys. I will be very happy with position 6-10 in the league table! Still a few years to go to get to that point though.

5.3 wasn't you then AIM?
I added some more today trying to set things up nicely for end of Q1 early Q2 just jigging the old pf also ready for the new ISA window. This is obviously value at 5 but was even better low 4s and I managed to sneak a few sub 4 recently which is (or can only) be thanks to Kabunga I think?
Am well positioned now and will most likely hold it all till finance complete then slice a small piece off and try and run as many as possible through mine build and production as that's where the proper gravy is. All things being well and falling into place and trailing wind as these things require....

Be interesting if this rise gets sold (by Kabunga) or not. Once he's out you would imagine it won't go back to 4p again...

>> invest in ARB
>> With BTC in recline probably till next week now

people 'invest' with a view to where BTC will be 'next week'? Surely not? We're interested in where BTC will be next year and the years after, as markets should forward price the prospects of companies such as ARB. Short term is just noise. All IMHO. I get that a good entry point helps but it's pretty cheap right now - so I've added....

Yes thanks Jim - even if you assume this is traded in the range, so sells at the top of the range are the proverbial 'range traders', it might be safe to assume Kabunga has sold a lot of his remaining holding (>50%?) since the RNS (I noticed around 8-10 days between the date referrered up to in the RNS and the RNS date itself) . There is clearly appetite for the shares this close to ML, even with the short term setback if Tanzania goes on hold for a couple of weeks, it might provide the savvy with an opportunity to completely take him out then we have no big seller present for the next leg up. I'd be very happy with an outcome of - Kabunga 0, ML 1, in early April. Suits me sir. Recent volumes are very encouraging. GLA

2 weeks is a long time in the life of a PI though :) they invest for 'the cycle' which I take to be the next 48 hour cycle haha. As I see it lemmings+Kabunga=buying opportunity (potentially)....

wish I happened to have 19 000 000 x 4.5p pieces down the sofa. I'd buy them off him. But I don't sadly

no news I'm aware of but not at all uncommon with a share that doubles in a month or so. Seen it loads of times with shares that were set to go much higher. It is healthy to clear sellers who want out so new buyers can come in with the longer timeframes in mind.

The main thing to decide is whether you like the story and the eventual £5 / £10 / £17.75 price targets. I do. Then it's really easy to filter out the swings between £1.7-£2 and keep buying as funds become available!

I saw an announcement from ukgov about green energy / carbon initiative but no new cash. Eventually they will come to realise you have to fund the green dream, step change doesn't happen by itself and industry might not shoulder the full burden by itself. I have no doubts at all that substantial green initiatives/projects will receive the necessary backing in due course.

well, it's either time to buy big (about to break previous resistance area and enter new territory) or sell your holding on expectation of retrace to the 3.8-4.5p area! Because I'm not a trader, I literally haven't a clue which.

What I do know is £23m is dirt cheap for a $400m NPV project with a one year mine build and licence due imminently.... so hold and ignore the noise for me :)

thanks jd value your input. As I see it pros and cons depending on what you want as outcome:
- if Teck/Glen increase (significantly), it probably means they want eventual T/O
- if Orion buy in big, they probably like the management team - you can't rule out T/O but actually more likely they will protect us from a T/O

So Orion potentially keeps us independent, the other advantage I see of Orion is, hopefully, if 10p was 'good enough' for the offtake maybe it will be good enough for the raise. I'm all for keeping dilution minimal. If it is them I hope the co are paying hardball and hence the dragged out funding affair....