Member Info for wasarunner

amaretto is you dilution for warrants or for the equity raise of financing? Admit I'm not aware of the numbers of warrants O/S. I'd assumed maybe the equity might come in at 600m shares once the raise is done to cover capex but I hadn't factored warrants.

We're priced at ~7.5% mcap to NPV which is bananas IMO (todays numbers - $430m NPV 1.38USD/GBP and current mcap 23.3m gbp). Maybe if financing was an insurmountable hurdle or we had no licence and it was looking shaky that might be a fair valuation but in any other circumstance its not. Rerate must happen, timing as ever is unknown. We obviously need the licence but if the ESIA was the key then that should be imminent?

The nice thing about the numbers is the shareprice could treble and we'd still be sitting comfortably for stage of development 20% of NPV. I also expect financing to be fairly smooth for the IRR so surely 20% of NPV is still very conservative.

I see what you mean - risky to do it sub raise price IMO. If it goes above raise price (and well above) maybe worth a try. I'm actually surprised we are below now - that's either people spooked by Brazil news, or profit taking for CGT, or people playing their cash away for the next month or two expecting finance not to complete anytime soon. I expect we will rise next week and it is very easy to get caught out. That said I do think there is a cap on the share price now because of the last raise. So if people think they can time the news on financing (which will be the rerate event) then my feeling is 8-9p is maximum now, we won't see higher until the terms of the deal are know. So your margin for error I would say is 7.1p-9p at the moment and I personally expect financing to land end of May/June. I won't be taking any risks - bed & isa for me.

Hi SJ - if you bed & isa you take no risk, the broker will sell and buy and you will pay a minimal spread. Whether there is lots of new ISA buying next week which pushes the price up your only risk is you couldn't ISA as many as you would at 7.1p. I'll happyily take anything under 8p but I'll be surprised if it rises too much but lets see. I guess next week might not be the time to put new money in, that was probably best put in at the end of the last trading week as we were bargain central at 7.1p.

FWIW I'm getting my bed&isa orders (x5) in early next week and I don't mind what price it'll take place. I really didn't think we'd be under 10p so to get another 1m+ shares into the ISA is indeed a bonus.

I don't know why the price dropped last week unless it was people looking to take the CGT allowance. Co confirmed H1 for financing. That's 12 weeks from where I'm sitting. Technically we're into Q2 today! GLA

Ispy agreed (both that current mcap massively undervalues the co and the kabunga timelines) but I dont think it was a steady selling - he sold the rises. In the last month or so there has been more volume - I bought over 5m shares so who did I buy them from. Of course he may have some remaining and be waiting for an exit at a different price.

Either way 2 bod members allied to KB are gone so its a reshuffle and hopefully the next phase is soon.

Just on stocks I dont know where I would place acp specifically but I came to the conclusion you need some speedboats and oil tankers (metaphorically) in your pf. I bought hzm and still believe in it even though it took years longer than I first hoped but $80bn in the ground you cant argue with (as a 1% holder, thats quite a lot attributable to me not that I will ever see it!). Here because the capex is so much lower, irr is higher you hope we achieve an npv based valuation much sooner. Here is hoping! Onboard anyway and looking forward to the year ahead. I think BOD appointments here will be really interesting, the bod is often underappreciated but from what I believe 100% as important as the asset itself. Both very important to achieve shareholder value! Gla

Just read the posts back OTH haha good read. Still big on HZM but also a decent position here. I call this the 'anode' side of my portfolio! Yes maybe I was too big on one share and maybe too big on one opportunity but as AIM says, raising not much short of $0.5bn for a company with mcap around £50m (which when I invested) is quite a big deal.

No such problems then here as the capex is much much smaller and the company has a decent mcap although still well under what the market should be valuing it? I'd really like to see £50m mcap here at least before the equity part of the financing.

I'm bullish on both you don't have to pick one winner. I've also gone a bit into gold and a bit into rare earths and a couple of more leftfield things. Nicely balanced portfolio mainly built for the EV boom (which is coming), and to hedge against the big QE (which is about here). But actually the stock I am most excited about on a 12 month view is ACP - I really hope we're building a mine in that timeframe. GLA

It feels like Kabunga could be out (touch wood). If so it would be great as we go into proper newsflow in Q2 the last thing you want is a systematic seller dragging the price. There will of course be profit taking but hopefully not the drip drip where every rise gets sold straight down. Looking very good here. Courtesy of TDT from the HZM board:

"March got off to a flying start with France reporting 29,455 EVs for the month or 16.1% of all vehicle sales. The March figure almost doubles the total for the first quarter of 2021. If the rest of Europe reports similar figures we could see over 1.1m EV sales for the first quarter of 2021. That would be more than the totals for H1 2019 and 2020."

Where will they get all the graphite for the batteries?!?

Slums, I've recently talked to another CEO (not Horizonte) on this subject and he said it is rare (except for precious metals and a few industrial metals which happily for us probably includes nickel) for offtake to include prepay. I think prepay may remain an option for Horizonte. I guess if there is no prepay element then you can announce the offtake ahead of everything else because it isn't affecting the balance (of debt and equity). I am of course, like others here, very much hoping prepay offtake reduces the balance of equity required but I've long since given up on the idea that it will be the offtake announcement which drives the sp up for an eventual equity price which is higher. This seems to be a route Horizonte didn't go down (if it was ever an option).

I put it in there (at risk of JD saying Glen won't take equity again :) ) at least one of our offtakers may also be in for equity and therein you have the hazard which AIM below has pointed out. The offtaker doesn't necessarily want to raise his equity price....

If Glen aren't an offtaker I'll eat some of my shares...(not all)

They're a key component of securing the debt so as such, key to the finance package. Whether or not there will be a prepayment remains to be seen. But they have to be negotiated in tandem, or ahead of, debt being signed off. The way I have had it explained to me is the creditors want to see a counterparty which is creditworthy if Horizonte can't guarantee the debt.

I guess it's like negotiating a $0.5bn mortgage on a 'house' where the 'house' is underground concentrate containing nickel. The bank wants to make sure you can get the 'house' out if you need to repossess.

" It is on this basis that we will not being announcing additional details on parts of the package."

It's what I said, they could well have done it but not announced it. That's the problem for JM he has to tread a very fine line between keeping the market briefed with progress but not upsetting a delicate negotiation. He probably threw the March date into the interview as a 'bone' probably knowing he wouldn't be able to disclose. Damned if you do damned if you don't. Had he not done it we'd be complaining we hadn't heard anything at all about offtakes! From my discussions with Horizonte there is plenty of offtake interest and I've been told before this is one of the easier aspects of the financing to tie up.

Very nice to see confirmed H1. Onwards and upwards. Only (less than) 3 months to go. Surely it won't be completed 30th June?!

what's even more mind boggling is the spending is from made up money, not anything they will ever collect from tax. Best to invest in gold, crypto, and last but not least of course, nickel! There's only so much made up money you can print before your currency devalues surely... realistically the only way out of the mess is for west to devalue currencies. Not going to achieve it via growth.

hi Brisk, from the RNS:

approximately £12.2 million from the Placing and approximately £5.8 million from the Canadian Offering.

You might assume they spent some of the £12m (raised presumably really quickly via the UK listing) would be used for long lead items and the rest retained as the buffer for negotiations and the interim expenses.

Actually re-reading Hazbeen's post - both are true. You can be a long term holder, and want the sp low so you can bed & isa. That's a huge opportunity. At 7.3p it's 1.37m shares in 5 ISAs. In 2025, if you believe Horizonte could be 50p (I do), that's just shy of £700k in the ISA (for a one year of ISA allowance).

So yes, I see there being very good news (today) that the SP where it is. Always presupposing that we do see those numbers in due course, and JM does get this built and producing.

Yes that's how I read Hazbeen's post. If you are bullish (long term) on the stock short term price weakness is an OK thing at tax year boundaries! It isn't quite the same scenario but if we had been finance complete we could easily have been well north of 10p right now. £20k would get you sub 200k shares in your ISA. Todays price it gets you closer to 300k shares. Course last year we were adding 1m shares per ISA. Long term - it's an opportunity - short term - it's a pain that we're still valued sub 10p!

I guess most invested here over many years are getting a bit tired of the opportunity and would rather the proper rerate began. I'm one of those :) But only after 6th April thanks.

Short term weakness is wonderful for the bed and ISA. If nothing material changes in the next week or two, I am taking a huge positive here. Roll on Q2. GLA

Yes and if you're a good trader and can read the market (I'm not) you can make money along the way by moving in and out as news lands. I'm terrible at it - if I tried to do it consistently I would lose money consistently. Some are very good at it. For example, if you could even have taken advantage of the rises and drops on Horizonte over 3 years you could have double the holding I have (probably) - I hold a bit under 1% of the company now. But I don't even try because I would fail.

Buy and accumulate and only review when material news about the co changes is a very sensible strategy and the value will out at some point. But - strategy needs far more patience than most PI investors seem to have! Especially when hot stocks elsewhere are rising faster etc.

I would always also accept lower return for certainty. If you are investing in size (everyone has their own P/F and limits etc) but for me anything over 6 figures of investment I have to be really really confident in the co. So I would take a lower multiple return - say, aim for 3x over something that might go 5x or 10x but with more risk. Preserving capital is of course the name of the game - if you get it wrong you don't want to be wiped out.

Slight delays to date aside then this looks open goal enough for me I've put in 6 figs here. Multi year view as always when I invest. GLA

Also don't ignore tax year end lots of people crystallise gains/losses and do positioning of portfolios around this time. Expecting to see some ISA buying in the next tax year (both this and other stocks).

BOD changes, not unusual as the company changes stage of lifecycle. I would eat my hat if people hadn't already been headhunted/approached prior to dropping it into the 'The board is initiating a process to review its composition' RNS! Hopefully it all nicely comes together - licence/team/finance for the next phase. It could all actually start accelerating from here as the remaining item which is not under direct company control (the ML) is resolved.

The way to make proper money of course is then to keep buying, over a long time, while the price is relatively cheap to value. The problem is most people don't have infinite wealth to keep doing that so at some point you have to stop buying cos you run out of cash. Which is a shame, when there is so much potential/relatively guaranteed (as much as can ever be in a situation) upside.