Member Info for wasarunner

VV I always worked on from the date Araguaia starts producing. Which to me suggests you can do it quicker if you are happy to take some debt. Building it entirely from FCF is a bit slow because you obviously need clear cash to start the build. On the slide showing cumulative cashflow he has years -3 to 0 then year 1 shows the first positive cashflow (non cumulative). Hopefully currently we are sitting at year -2 (ish) on this particular chart right now. Craig has previously said the financing for stage 1 should be seen as the gateway financing - the company could very well secure financing for stage 2 in a more rapid way as the credit profile of a producing miner is very different to a non-producing miner particularly if nickel prices are attractive at the point of production.

For my money Stage 2 gets build much quicker than 4.5 years after Stage 1 complete but of course, it might not be us building it. GLA

There are clearly indications in the presentation that Horizonte will progress Vermelho, perhaps to full DFS.

What interests me about this is I wonder if this builds out the existing study for a 'Horizonte sized mine' because if you are doing it standalone, without a partner already onboard for the DFS development, then surely that is what you have to do, perhaps with some optionality on eventual size built into the study.

A major might build bigger, and if you're going spend both time and money developing the DFS is this time and money wasted if the eventual partner builds a different mine?

Or, do you already have an idea on who the partner might be, and what they want, and really you're producing a DFS which fits their blueprint....

It is an intriguing situation because I really thought a partner would be onboard to do the DFS. We will find out more I suspect at Araguaia financing. I don't see anything at the moment to suggest that it won't be Horizonte themselves taking Vermelho to DFS but that does make me wonder what size mine they are scoping - if they won't be building it (or at least, building it alone).

jd agreed I suspect what's preventing a price at this very point (as well as a small market correction and slight correction in nickel) is the uncertainty around equity element - amount and value. If (like Craig) you don't really care because it unlocks the value and believe it kickstarts the timeline in the presentation then of course, low to mid 7p is a steal, I would agree. But the way you and Craig think isn't necessarily how everyone thinks and that's why the price is what the price is at the moment.

I like the presentation it sounds much more assured. I am told by people who understand this much better that having BMO as joint broker is a really really big deal. That and the tone of the presentation is very positive. I don't know if we previously knew the figure of $100m equity can anybody confirm that? It is the first time I've seen a figure on it, appreciate it will be an approximate number. We still don't know who it is - I really thought Orion when first announced now I'm not sure.

Timescales wise it does sound like things are moving and the main package minus final raise sounds like will be mid Q2. That means realistically many of the elments have to be there or thereabouts right now.

Haha last time I said 'no way' was to Geng and it happened so wtfdik but I think you are wrong. 7.5p to me sets the floor for financing and while we may drift lower it is too much of a bargain below that level and we have new entrants now - both pi's who have declared they are now buying and I also believe the ii's who thought 7.5p price down from 9.5p might just top up well before we get to 5s. So stick my neck out here and say we might flirt with 7p but no lower. No vested interest cos I ain't buying (or selling).

For long term investors convinced finance will happen in Q2 any short term weakness particularly around 6th April is a silver lining IMO - fill your ISAs. I will be (with existing shares in my case)...

On another note from conversations I've had one of the reasons given for striking (some) equity now was in case nickel price dropped. Strike will the iron is hot so to speak. Looking like better and better business to complete the main negotiation with cash in hand. GLA

I got starry eyed seeing the stellar gains that can be made per day investing in crypto.
But back to the here and now and eyes well and truly on the 'get rich slowly' scheme that is Horizonte. GLA

HZM is now ~85% of my PF. 15% is for liquidity/cash in the next 1-3 years. By value, I expect HZM to become a greater % over time as I do think there will be many rerating events over that period - but I won't try to guess when and by how much. On the long view we are still very very undervalued and the value gap will close. GLA

My mistake here was getting carried away with the notion that this is easy because nickel dynamics and prospects make it so. Balls to that. If it was easy, we would have had finance in place less than 2.5 years after DFS. It is hard - always hard for a company with £50m mcap to raise $0.5bn, probably much harder in current capital markets. We should generally be pleased that the company looks like it is going to be able to manage it.

Much smarter people than me, who know the ropes (e.g. Craig) know this and could quite correctly pick the dilution level and remains happy to be diluted further at that level knowing what he knows about what is coming down the line for the company, and for nickel. He is right. But it needs a long view, measured in years, which some/many investors have and have had since they invested.

I got a bit carried away in recent times thinking about what sp we could achieve post financing due to personal circumstances - knowing I needed some cash off the table at some point. My view on where HOrizonte is going in 2023-25 is undiminished. In fact, I think with nickel market dynamics probably very likely we will be taken over by then if not before then.

I've therefore opted, per my original plan for my investment here, to keep the amount of shares in which I want to run through to production / T/O my 'never sell these' shares. I would only reconsider if something major changes which shifts nickel prospects or the companies prospects. My minimum number is 20m shares for this, I currently hold more, and I accept further dilution means I won't get my 1% (that was being greedy anyway) and am relaxed. In due course the value of Araguaia and Vermelho will out.

In the meantime, personally, will stop trying to predict share prices for 2021, 2022, 2023 as they are now irrelevant to me. What matters is progress of the company to bring the mines online, hopefully partner with somebody who can help bring Vermelho online for production before 2025. SP will take care of itself - but on the long view.

GLA

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56245618

"Volvo's chief technology officer, Henrik Green, said the company needed to switch focus: "There is no long-term future for cars with an internal combustion engine.""

As long as all CTOs of big auto are thinking the same, we'll do alright (once we have Vermelho permitted and construction ready!....)

willahr can't speak for others and I know people who would want to participate but I've never got spare funds to do so. I'd prefer them to do it at premium if they can, then PIs have the opportunity to buy open market ahead of the raise. Of course we all expect SP to be higher after finance complete so I have no issues at all with it being offered to PIs who have funds to participate even if I can't. GLA

There was another trade over 1m shares earlier than mine.

My trade isnt showing but I screwed up I did it with a limit. I dont normally buy trades with such low liquidity so it executed at limit - doh. Thanks Optiva for that :). I paid 4.7p. Obv still cheap on a 5yr view - which is what I am interested in.... there was a trade earlier than mine. Maybe mine will show as a delayed trade tomorrow.

Added 1m shares. Liquidity (lack of) is a pain but I'm in for the long haul. You can't beat compound growth opportunities. And with relatively fixed overheads (for the online business) divis soon? Already profitable etc etc. Only slight annoying thing is I paid more for my shares than the FD but nevertheless our interests are now aligned! GLA

bb tend to agree (price will need a catalyst - news or ii's buying). There's the potential unexpected bonus for 6th April for those with spare cash or just moving holdings - I certainly didn't think we'd be anywhere around 7.5p April 6th - I had budgeted for 12-15p even pre finance (expected finance news to land in Q2). If the goal for the investor is long term gains I guess we take the positives of low shareprice, stuff ISAs full and wait patiently for 2023-25 to arrive. That's my plan anyway.

There could be news before 6th April of course. We will see.

well done to those who called it I didn't think we'd see the placing price but shows WTFDIK! Surely the floor? So the question is what news will get us off the floor. I'd like to see some announcement in due course on the canadian shares entering the market and then would be good to see some institutional buyers - surely they are incentivised now (ergo cheap shares) and they believe in the company at 7.5p right?

It is tempting to move back what I sold here as it has held its value (mostly) elsewhere but won't do it. Not really looking for 10% trades. Hoping more for multiples rerates. Still hoping minimum post financing is 15p then upwards from there. GLA

So as we get closer to financing complete (and hopefully in Q2) I guess GBPUSD starts to get interesting. Here in UK we have budget next week (matters for all sorts of reasons - not least CGT :) ) and then next interest rate decision is 18/3.

For the time being I can only see the pound strengthening against the dollar does anyone see any events that won't continue that trend say for next 2-3 months? That will affect amount of equity to issue also.

tell a lie - we know Canacord took another tranche from the result RNS.

"Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management ("Canaccord") (which holds shares representing approximately 10.0% of the Company's share capital as at the date hereof) is a related party of the Company and will be participating in the Placing by subscribing for 23,930,000 Placing Shares"

I don't know if that necessarily means Teck & Glencore didn't, if a similar statement would have needed to have been made about them should they have done so.

I don't think we know (at least I don't). We would find out at a minimum when Horizonte next update the register list, even if they didn't cross thresholds.

Technically they need to do that by 31/03 (current list is to 30/09/20) but cheekily last time they backdated it!

I make ~£18m raised ~240m shares at 7.5p. The confusion arises from the number stated in the RNS (161m shares) which refers really to the UK issue only. The canadian issue is somewhere buried in the warrants/won't they/will they/paradigm/4 months and a day debate.

I hope the new II's are worth it. I'd like to know who they are. Maybe they'll put their hands up and tell us. If they're key to driving the progress of the co.

Also, I don't necessarily think currency will collapse completely - i.e. $ is worthless per doomsters. But it doesn't need to for gold/nickel/copper etc. to all be a worth a lot more in $ terms than they are today. That's the investment case IMO. Now need to properly research GRL so will shut up :)