Member Info for wasarunner

Wonder how many investors on the register we will find out. If they are North American what thresholds do they have to declare? I'm interested in whether Orion take a declarable stake.

SJ I see two scenarios:
- PIs chasing gains 'what will go up most tomorrow or next week'. Horizonte hasn't had appeal or rather, it has, but the news isn't frequent enough for such traders. We saw a bit post Orion news for example but it got sold off.
- IIs who won't invest until finance is derisked. This is the much more interesting scenario because it should rerate us more significantly on finance complete.

I know some PIs (I'm not one of them) who will only sell into the II buying post finance so they are essentially invested for the finance event itself. It is quite an interesting scenario - PIs who won't sell before finance, and IIs who won't buy before finance. But I think it is a classic thing that plays out at the finance event on the chart which is circulated from time to time showing the explorer become a producer that the company shareholding generally shifts from PI to II hands.

I don't see many PIs not buying this because they are worried about dilution. I think they aren't buying this because crypto stocks went up by more % today.

didn't see your post website playing up!

Nickel 19,045.00 19,045.00

Thanks Baggy, really interesting thoughts from a long term holder who has been through the whole story to date. Amazing to have the conviction to hold for a decade then be so near to the defining year in the companies life.

Nope - I'll wait this week and maybe try Simon next week if I don't hear anything. It is of background interest but interesting nevertheless in assessing the outstanding capital structure of the company. My guesstimate is around 1.55bn shares inc options.

Then it's back to Baggy's question - do the BOD want to take this indepedent all the way. 100% of Araguaia and 40-50% ownership of an enlarged Vermelho is a formidable beast in a flying nickel market later this decade. And we should see £1 a share.

If the cornerstone knows all this wonder what SP they are prepared to pay right now for the above. Got to be double digits IMHO.

TD2 wrt to Vermelho I still see it as very possible that Horizonte retains the currently proposed upside / interest but the partner builds a bigger one. That is mainly possible because of the 1.7m tonnes of contained nickel I think. For e.g. at 60kt/yr you are looking at 28yr mine life. Horizonte could easily retain 25-30kt/yr interest in such a mine (the current proposal is 25kt/yr in the PFS).

So I wouldn't mind giving some away if the partner builds a bigger mine sooner, because we get that cashflow earlier. I expect for many investors here they are looking at the current decade for returns, not necessarily the one after that or the one after that! (I know I am!)

doubt we will ever see it realistically for the following reasons (even if nickel has upside above $19k/t):
- we will have to give some of Vermelho away to get it developed
- we have to dilute (probably modestly though) and I ignored share options

50p would do nicely though. £1 even better and £1 might be achievable? Will take a few years I expect to get there though....

Baggy I found your post really interesting and thought provoking. Ultimately I guess it comes down to what:
a. the BOD want to do and
b. what's right for shareholders
I guess it depends on the quality of the BOD as to which they prioritise but it will be a mix of the two. Does JM want to oversee HZM for the next 10 years? We just don't know. And how that factors into their views on what a decent offer for the company is.

I suspect, if they want to, they can 'protect' the company as an independent entity through this financing round with the partners they already have on board, as you rightly say. The question is do they want to. It will be evident probably from the deal that is made. I think in Orion they can have a solid long term finance partner and if Orion like our BOD (and I believe they do) and think they can get best value via this route, they can help protect the independence. A lot will then also depend on Glencore and Teck's motivations. I'm hoping Glencore want the product (but no more). And if Teck want to partner on Vermelho, perhaps as the senior partner with >50%, that would play very nicely too.

It really comes down to what the BOD want as an outcome I suspect. We should find out in the coming months. GLA

Did they tweet? Amazing how much you can add to an mcap via twitter haha

£3bn GBP = $19k/t combined NPV by my calcs (I've cheated a bit and offset current GBP strength against Real weakness so used 1.3 USD/GBP)

£3bn NPV equates to £2 a share

So we're still trading at < 5% NPV. Some of that gap has got to close anytime soon. GLA

Thanks Sasa and Craig, guess I wondered if it is just me (being a poor trader) or if it was generally accepted wisdom.
Case in point is Horizonte - I really can't tell when it will go up or down by 1p it seems to have no rhyme or reason to it. But I do believe it is worth well north of 20p so it seems easiest just to hold for those numbers. Guess if you are a trader though you not fussed too much - as long as you've got a decent selection of companies to trade you don't mind if one gets away.

Flavour - I think it is a deliberate strategy (whether because of the partners or because of the stage in the negotiation). JM was a lot more vocal and doing a lot more roadshow when I first invested. I guess we are at the business ends it is stum - and that's fine. I expect the PR to swing into high gear when financing RNS lands. Let the roadshow begin then....

full of traders evidently ;)

I've come to the conclusion that (for me at least) they're different things. I have some ability with the latter, the former eludes me. Had I treated my ARB 'trade' as an investment, like I do with HZM, and stuck with it, I'd be £350k up today on £150k invested 3 weeks ago. With presumably more to come. I told myself it was an investment but it turned into a trade when I could reinvest profit at the earliest opportunity into Horizonte. So my timing was awful (evidently).

On Horizonte (for me, quite clearly an investment and will always remain so) I'm up £1.6m so evidently doing something right.

It is frustrating when you think your approach is a hybrid approach to rue the missed opportunity/gain but I've had to learn patience (which doesn't come naturally at all to me) and ask myself the question - do I want to scour the markets daily, watch the ups and downs, with goal of making money, and all the downside risks that come with moving money around? Or, am I happy putting money into a few decent stocks, trying (this isn't easy either) to forget about them for a few years, and being pleasantly surprised by how much wealth can be generated by relatively little work?

I know this will be different for everyone here and probably many use a hybrid approach but I'm trying really hard to be 'only' an investor, but looking at what if's and hindsight trading, it does cause frustration.

The message/moral for me here is - I do believe in this company. Does it matter whether it is 8p/9p/10p today or more? Probably not if I only care about the value in 3 years. Is it frustrating that it hasn't gone up as quickly as my other 'investment' which I sold? Yes. Can I live with it? Probably but it still annoys me. Have to learn to accept that. I guess others have been in this game longer and probably know what I'm talking about.

I'm sure good money can be made trading but it has to be horses for courses - I'm a better investor than trader and will have to position accordingly! And in that context does it matter that we didn't breach 10p - probably not! But I would rather we had, obviously. GLA - whatever your strategy.

>>Volume is too small for any serious day trader.
You'd think so but I managed £135k and £105k buy on two different days and barely budged the price up. Yet yesterday I could have sol (maybe not all of it) at 9.95 and 9.99p. So (unfortunately) there is trading potential it seems.

To me the rise to 10p off the bat in Jan wasn't really warranted as it was pretty obvious we still had time to go. Plus it went to fast from 6p. We're in a different stage now. World is going to come out of lockdown soon and Horizonte will announce something I would say next 6-8 weeks are prime.

I fully expect 12-15p range before financing is announced so that is still a decent 50% upside from here potentially without news. But traders will trade the swings, of course. GLA

How is the SP 10.10 with bid 9.7 ask 10.00. Are we in auction?

I assumed it was so they don't have to fund both the buyout and the mine build entirely from cash. However, that doesn't answer the question of why they are prepared to pay more (as the company costs more to buy post finance).

My understanding is they prefer even to buy mines which are built, and are prepared to pay a premium at that point. In Horizonte's case, can an acquiror wait that long, maybe maybe not. It might get snapped up well before.

Oh and ditto also believe we won't stay independent. Only thing I don't know is when the inevitable will happen....