Member Info for wasarunner

Bwana all you need to know about Orion (other than they already have $25m on the table with us) is here:

https://www.buyoutsinsider.com/mining-investor-orion-nears-halfway-point-on-fund-iiis-2bn-target/

"Fund III will maintain Orion's investment strategy in the global base and precious metals industry, according to the firm's ADV filings"

$2bn is an awful lot of money to be raising and they're pretty obviously pretty good at raising it...

list of transactions is here (the most recent listed is December 2020)
https://www.orionresourcepartners.com/orion-mine-finance

a deal they did in October 2020 is listed as $558m equity! So very deep pockets indeed....

TG333 when the cornerstone was announced (December I think) instinctively everyone assumes current shareholder. But it doesn't have to be - at the time - I assumed Orion actually. It is probably a bit more complicated mechanically how it will play out but simply put it is an investor (with existing shares or not, we don't yet know) who wants more and they are prepared to offer terms which the company are happy with, be it on an amount basis (to underwrite a fixed amount of $ raised) or a sp basis. The sp could be floating against something like VWAP or it could even be set relative to another event (like the recent raise).

The three obvious candidates who are already involved with this company are Teck, Glen, Orion. Orion don't have shares yet but they have deep (very, very deep) pockets. $100m equity they do elsewhere at a pinch. Teck & Glen can probably afford that kind of cash too.

The interesting thing as point out here by others is, if an existing shareholder takes major equity (Teck or Glen) the kind of sums at the kind of prices they might take will take them over 30% assuming they take it all. A new investor, like Orion, maybe wouldn't (depends on the sp of course).

JD unless you have some inside info or know something about Glen that isn't public I don't know why you would write them off. My money is evens they are the cornerstone, and if not, it wouldn't surprise me at all if they chipped in in the next round anyway. I think they're the 4th largest nickel company in the world? But 100% expect them to be involved in offtakes, whether or not they are involved in equity.

An interesting possibility is Vale being interested. In 2019 I believe they were the worlds largest nickel producer and might yet have designs on our mines - they're in the backyard after all. I don't think the cornerstone is limited to existing interests, hopefully the BOD searched far and wide to secure the best deal for the company that gets this built.

D220 me neither but seen enough to know things dont go up in straight lines! Very rapid rise here and healthy and normal to consolidate just need to focus on fundamentals and newsflow and we have both here in bags - share price will take care of itself in due course! Gla

Hazbeen where do you get 500m I can see at least 620m+ just on the significant holders list and there will be more besides. I expect >50% still pi held - we took a lot when the institutions sold down all the shares went to pi's if you were to look back at the hl and ii holdings they all rise over time. Of course, that presented a problem to the co when they wanted to raise they need to institutionalise the register. I am happy for institutions to take my shares but it will be at 25p+. The interesting factor is glen and teck didnt participate in the last raise. I now reckon one is the cornerstone. I have my guess which. Could be wrong of course and it could be Orion but I think not. if it is one of Teck or Glen then happy days :)

>>Do you sell your crystal balls....
or hold them haha

FWIW I'm holding them!

>>The offtakes could be the key as they will all but de-risk financing.
Must admit I don't have a good handle on the graphite space but I know it is hot and with contracts negotiated not via standard market pricing I imagine offtakers are keen to lock in contracts sooner, than later.

Also I imagine the company will have been conducting these negotiations in parallel to the licencing - so it follows - you have the licence you can sign the deal. Once you have a contracted customer(s) for your product, landing the necessary financing for the build should be very very doable here.

Exciting stuff - assuming licences March/early April, perhaps offtakes announced later in Q2 might be very realistic. I do see the offtake as key because with capex low I don't see that much financing risk once they are in place.

It's really easy to get hung up on a previous high as a good sell target but I think this kind of thinking limits investor upside. So it might be tempting to sell some at 5p - I bought plenty below 4p - that's a quick 25% short order. But I think it misses the point here.

NPV $430m USD mcap ~£23m GBP is bananas, once licenced, permitted, financed.
Assuming the licence is a formality (of course, it isn't always but assuming it is) then the only remaining constraint will be financing but with capex modest ~$40m and the NPV here any dilution will be relatively minimal.
Throw in that offtakes are likely to land before financing news on the debt/equity side then newsflow is pretty much guaranteed once the permits land.

That makes it bananas to sell at 5p (IMO) when there is so much upside to come, unless people can see 3/4/5x multiples on other stocks which are even more imminent this is as good a place as any IMO. Even if one intends not to hold through to production the mcap/NPV disparity here is huge.

The offtakes could be the key as they will all but de-risk financing. I can't guess at a timeframe on those but I wouldn't imagine there will be too long to wait. GLA

Last year I was hoping we would be sub 2p - had 3 ISAs - to transfer 3m bed&isa and just about managed it.

This year I am hoping we will be sub 10p - have 5 ISAs - to transfer 1m shares bed&ISA. Perhaps a bit better - 3 weeks today - hoping around 8p

The one thing that isn't different between the years is I am expecting finance complete in the middle of the year :) GLA - looks a lot like 7p is the bottom of this particular period notwithstanding some wider market/macro event.

I'm selling (some) in 2025. I don't know the shareprice but I know it will be more than 7p.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if we consolidate a bit at this level or even retrace a bit. All very healthy - shares rarely go up on a a straight line! Perhaps a pause here until next news. It has been a pretty rapid rise in the last few weeks but if Bwana is right and the share is tightly held who knows - end of the day it's about buyers and sellers and if people aren't selling...... up will be the direction.

Pracrorrim so true - I've had the good fortune to become a 'paper millionaire' already through investment over the last 3+ years but it wasn't achieved by investing in a 100 to 1 bet. It happened by seeking out and investing in fundamentally undervalued opportunity then holding through the ups and downs (in my case Horizonte Minerals) to fair value, not yet achieved there. This has given me the luxury of diversifying and I now see Pensana as a very similar opportunity but again on a proper timeline measured in years. The kind of valuations which Bwana and others here have put forward will happen down the line, not next week or the month after, but that is a time horizon it seems past most PI investors. GLA - this is a fantastic opportunity and absolutely plays with the future energy narrative, I just hope we don't get taken out (early) as although that kind of event provides short term upside one is left always having to find 'the next Pensana etc.'. And full value is only really realised by developing the assets and holding into the cycle - we are only at the beginning of the commodity cycle right now. Full value is very much 2025-2030 IMO.

Bwana agree with your post also worth considering there are (at least) two types of PI investor here:
- those that discovered the opportunity in the last 12 months. We are at the business end pre finance and they have bought at various numbers and consider 7p good value. KevB from twitter obviously falls into this camp. Some might have sought out Horizonte based on the Musk tweets and increased nickel narrative in the second half of last year. These investors (like you) have been buying.
- there are those of us who bought any time over the last 3+ years. We got some shares at 1.7p, some higher. We are 'in the money'. For me it wasn't an easy decision but I rebalanced a chunk of my portfolio while retaining (for me) a huge holding (still 20m+ I won't be selling). I think there will have been this type of investor selling taking place over the last few weeks. Nothing against Horizonte at all but a moderation of short term expectation combined with a risk balance strategy.

I have no doubt about two things:
- 7p represents bloody good value and
- when institutional buying appears we will move up sharply because there won't be enough sellers with news imminent/landing

A wider correction in markets in the next few months may yet present further opportunity (I would urge bb not to sell at the low!) but generally I think the only way is up from here - short medium and long term.

From my conversations with the company recently I understand that they are keen to raise all the money they need to develop Araguaia. This is crucial - no more raise and dilution once finance is in place. Vermelho is a different beast but as I don't think we will develop it ourselves the equity part of Vermelho will sort itself out when the capex partner joins IMO. So if there is to be dilution - and I agree with you and Craig, probably more than PIs originally expected - let it be the final dilution and the one that firmly establishes us as a producer rather than an explorer. GLA

apologies for the slight ignorance here (relatively new to this stock) but is bfs = business plan to be published imminently the same thing? Or is the bfs still to be commissioned? Thank you.

Seems Bwana is the ringleader here - what's your next tip for 50% upside in 3 weeks Bwana ;) Likewise, thanks.

I'm not complaining here at all! Late to the party at around 125p average but holding for the long game. This has all the hallmarks of a fantastic opportunity in the making. Sadly I missed the period where the ozzies were having to sell down...

Safetrader1 I multiplied your predictions by my holdings (around 5.3m shares after todays top up) and any of your estimates and liked the results! I'd like to see the second phase ramp up 4yr+ but what are the chances of being independent still at that point....probably not high.

always the opportunity is to get in before them! that's the game really...

insti's buy certainty. They will probably want to see the business plan then handbrakes off...

interesting side effect of the extra shares is now 7p is firmly above £100mcap. Back in the day it was only just. So in old money we're above 7p really....(yes I'm one of those that still works on GMT once we're BST etc :)

fair point ihowells there's a merry go round on the AIM again with other stocks moving - just surprised people would sell below the placing price. I suppose if timing is your thing - you think something else can do 20% and you can buy back here then fine but it doesn't always work out that way... For me I would never think it would work out with luck, but if it happens by accident, I'll take it. I would add Horizonte all day long at 7p but with a slightly diversified portfolio now I'm resisting the temptation to top up. Goes much lower would have to reconsider though!

I suppose with volume light a few sells will drag the price. I guess everyone who loaded up both pre and post raise are now fully positioned here i.e. we don't have enough new buyers right now. Hopefully they come back when the other shares have done their things...